Lions 2025 Squad Builder: Our Starting Back Three for the First Test ...Middle East

The battle for the Lions’ back three is heating up ahead of the 2025 tour to Australia. Using Opta data, we kick off our Lions ‘Squad Builder’ series by selecting the full-back and wingers for the first Test against the Wallabies.

As the countdown begins for the 2025 British & Irish Lions tour to Australia, the big question looms: who should start for the Lions in the opening Test?

Over the coming weeks, we’ll be building our Lions 2025 starting XV using data from Opta’s extensive rugby database. We’ll analyse player performances from 2024 onwards to identify the form players, position by position, for that crucial first clash with the Wallabies.

In this first instalment of our Lions 2025 Squad Builder series, we’re focusing on the back three – the full-back and two wingers.

There are going to be injuries and call-ups to the squad in the build-up to the tour, which could cause havoc to our selection. With that in mind, should any of our choices be forced to pull out of the tour before the opening game, we’ll provide an update to our team.

Full-Back

There are seven players vying for spots in the Lions’ back three, but the battle for the No. 15 jersey looks set to be a tussle between just two of them: Hugo Keenan and Blair Kinghorn.

Of course, the likes of Marcus Smith and Elliot Daly could cover those positions, and that will put them both in an excellent position to be a utility option off the bench, but it seems more likely that the starting full-back will be Irish or Scottish.

Keenan and Kinghorn offer contrasting profiles, something that could give head coach Andy Farrell the flexibility to tailor his selection based on the Wallabies’ threats and weaknesses.

Since the 2023 Rugby World Cup, Keenan (776 minutes) and Kinghorn (786 minutes) have spent a similar amount of time on the pitch for their respective nations.

Kinghorn’s attacking attributes have really stood out, particularly this year as he was one of the biggest threats with ball in hand during the Six Nations, leading the way for metres, line breaks and offloads. In fact, Kinghorn’s tally of 580 metres gained during the tournament was the most in a single campaign in the men’s Championship’s history.

86 – Blair Kinghorn made the most carries (86) of any player in the 2025 Men's Six Nations, also gaining the most metres (580) and making the most offloads (13) and line breaks (9). Crown.#Lions2025 pic.twitter.com/LDzvADUmAn

Kinghorn also has a creative element to his game, as evidenced by the fact he has slotted in at fly-half on occasion for Scotland. He has registered four try assists in international rugby since the beginning of 2024, as well as hitting double figures for line-break assists (10). Those numbers are perhaps a result of his willingness to offload the ball out of the tackle, something he’s done more than any other Tier 1 player since the World Cup (20).

This is an area where he has the edge over Keenan, who has just one try assist and one break assist in that time and has offloaded on just three occasions.

But if Kinghorn’s strength is his attacking game, then for Keenan it is his reliability. The Leinster full-back rarely makes mistakes, is solid in defence and safe under the high ball.

Keenan has conceded just 0.8 turnovers per 80 minutes in Test rugby since the beginning of 2024, fewer than any other back-three player selected for the Lions. It’s a stark contrast to Kinghorn, who concedes almost three times as many on average.

The Scottish full-back does get on the ball more often than Keenan, but not really by a notable amount (21 touches per 80 minutes to Keenan’s 17). And, as noted, Kinghorn opts to offload a lot more than Keenan, so there is certainly a heightened element of risk and reward to his play.

Keenan is also one of just two Lions – along with Henry Pollock, who has played just 31 minutes of Test rugby – yet to concede a penalty since the World Cup, again showing how rare it is that he gives the opposition easy possession.

Despite Keenan being the smaller of the two No. 15s, it hasn’t affected his ability under the high ball. The 28-year-old has successfully taken 91% of opposition kicks he’s fielded since the World Cup, the best rate of any Lions back-three player.

Additionally, he has five attacking catches in that period, the joint most of any Tier 1 player – level with five others including fellow Lions Tommy Freeman and Mack Hansen.

Our Pick at Full-Back: Blair Kinghorn

In our Lions squad for the opening Test against Australia, we’re going to lock in Kinghorn. We want to take the game to the Wallabies by unleashing the best attacking full-back in the squad, and although Keenan is one of the most reliable full-backs in world rugby, the Scot is a man in form and gets the nod as the first name on our team sheet.

Wingers

Moving on to the two wing positions now, and we’re going to simplify our options by acknowledging early on that Elliot Daly is likely going to be the utility man. That makes him ideal for the 23rd man in our squad or as a player who can slot seamlessly into the backline during midweek games.

That leaves Duhan van der Merwe and James Lowe to fight it out for the left-wing spot, and Mack Hansen and Tommy Freeman going head-to-head on the right wing.

It’s probably worth noting that, from a style point of view, the two wingers in the Irish system come into first receiver far more than any other team. Lowe has averaged 4.2 touches per 80 minutes at first receiver, while Hansen averages 3.1. Those figures are well clear of the next highest Tier 1 winger (Bautista Delguy – 1.8).

While it’s not a crucial aspect of our team selection, it might give us an insight into what Farrell wants from his wide men during this tour, with Hansen being an additional playmaker and Lowe being utilised for his territorial kicking.

Lowe’s left foot is a real weapon for Ireland and it has seen him gain 212 kicking metres per 80 minutes since the World Cup, twice as many as any other Tier 1 winger. That’s a huge difference compared to Van der Merwe, for whom putting boot to ball is very much a ‘break glass’ option.

The Lions won’t want to play too much rugby in their own half; winning the kicking battle will be key to making sure they aren’t playing in the wrong areas of the pitch.

Lowe has been solid fielding kicks as well, successfully claiming 84% of opposition kicks, the best rate of any Lions winger, fractionally ahead of Daly. It’s an area where he is clear of Van der Merwe, who has claimed just two thirds of the kicks that have come his way.

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However, there is one glaring weakness in Lowe’s game, and that is his tendency to fall off tackles: his 55% success rate is comfortably worse than his back-three counterparts.

In contrast, Van der Merwe, who has often been criticised for his defensive abilities, has the best tackle success rate of any Lions back-three player (86%). Farrell needn’t worry about the left wing being a weak point defensively should he select the Scotland winger.

Of course, it is Van der Merwe’s attacking ability that he’s best known for. Since the World Cup, the Edinburgh winger has beaten 20 more defenders than any other player for a Tier 1 nation (76), while only Louis Bielle-Biarrey (13 tries, 22 line breaks) has bettered his tally of tries or line breaks (11 tries, 20 line breaks).

Lowe is no slouch in attack either, though. His tally of 19 line breaks since the World Cup is just one fewer than his rival for the No. 11 jersey. While Lowe might not beat defenders on the same scale as Van der Merwe, he still betters the Scot, marginally, for metres gained per 80 minutes (63 vs 62).

Lowe is also a threat even when he is tackled, with only Kinghorn (20) and RG Snyman (18) making more offloads for a Tier 1 nation since the World Cup than his 17.

The Irish winger may not get across the try line quite as regularly, but when counting his assists, he is directly involved in the same number of tries per 80 minutes (0.8) as Van der Merwe, who is generally finishing off the five-pointers rather than creating them.

Our Pick at Left Wing: James Lowe

Taking into account the strengths and weaknesses of both players, we’ve gone for Lowe as the first winger to make our Lions XV. While Van der Merwe’s attacking ability is second to none, Lowe is involved in just as many tries per 80 minutes, while he breaks the line and gains a similar number of metres without having to beat as many defenders.

Lowe’s territorial kicking game and ability under the high ball also give him the edge over Scotland’s all-time top try scorer, but should his tackling still be a weakness during the tour then Van der Merwe could wrestle that jersey off him.

On to the second of our wing battles, and there is little to choose, statistically speaking, between Hansen and Freeman. The pair have identical records when it comes to scoring (both 0.4 per 80 minutes) and assisting tries (both 0.2 per 80 minutes) since the World Cup.

However, Freeman’s try involvements have come a lot more recently than Hansen’s. The Englishman has registered five tries and two assists in his last six Tests, while the Irish winger has no tries and one assist in his last four.

Freeman has averaged fewer carries per 80 (6.7) than Hansen (8.7) but has managed to squeeze more out of those runs, gaining nine more metres per 80 than Hansen and registering almost twice as many line breaks (1.1 – 0.6).

Hansen is the more creative of the two players. As noted earlier, he averages 3.1 touches at first receiver per 80, second only to Lowe among Tier 1 wingers since the beginning of last year.

While Lowe gets a lot of his touches by being used as a kicking option, Hansen’s come more from a playmaking role. As a result he has averaged twice as many line-break assists (0.4 per 80) as Freeman (0.2).

Hansen’s kick chase has also been impressive, with the Irishman reclaiming 0.7 kicks per 80 minutes for Ireland. Of the 134 Tier 1 players to feature for as many minutes as Hansen (540) since the World Cup, none have gathered as many attacking kicks on average.

Somewhat surprisingly, that ability hasn’t translated quite as well when fielding opposition kicks. While his 78% success rate isn’t bad, it still sits at the lower end of the scale when compared to his Lions teammates.

Defensively, Freeman has the edge, posting a solid 83% tackle success rate, 10 percentage points better than Hansen. He also adds a real physicality to the defence, with Immanuel Feyi-Waboso (1.3) the only Lions-eligible back to average more dominant tackles per 80 minutes since the World Cup (1.2).

Our Pick at Right Wing: Tommy Freeman

Due to his recent attacking form, along with his defensive ability, we’re going to go with Freeman as our No. 14 to complete our Lions back three for the opening Test against Australia.

With Kinghorn’s dynamism, Lowe’s all-round game and Freeman’s form and finishing, our Lions starting XV is off to good start.

Stay tuned as we build out the rest of our Lions 2025 starting XV, including rounding out the rest of the backs, before picking the all-important forward pack.

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Lions 2025 Squad Builder: Our Starting Back Three for the First Test Opta Analyst.

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