After trade deals with the United States and India, Sir Keir Starmer looks set to make it a hat-trick of agreements at the landmark UK-EU summit on Monday.
The talks in London will be the culmination of months of negotiations around the Prime Minister’s so-called Brexit “reset”.
While only a defence deal is expected to be fully completed in time for the summit, the direction of travel is likely to be set for a range of other areas that have been under discussion.
Agreements, of some kind, are likely to be reached in all areas that both sides can live with. But there will be questions over the level of concessions either the UK or EU have to make.
Here is how it could play out:
The UK has been pushing hard to get a full security and defence deal over the line in time to announce it at Monday’s summit.
Initially seen as low-hanging fruit, the pact has arguably become more valuable as the continent ramps up defence spending and cooperation in response to Donald Trump’s stepping back of American commitments to European security.
Best case scenario for the UK Government at the summit: Starmer will be hoping for deep involvement for British defence firms in the EU’s so-called Security Action For Europe (SAFE) rearmament project which would allow them to access Brussels-backed loans to fund weapons-buying.
Worst case scenario: France succeeds in an internal battle to only give the UK limited access to the EU-wide rearmament scheme, partly to protect its own defence industry.
What the critics will say: In the face of Russian aggression, there is unlikely to be much criticism although some Eurosceptics may seize on any demands for Britain to pay into EU budgets if this does not give good access.
Movement of people
The UK has urged the EU to make it easier for professionals like lawyers to work in the bloc, and wants easier passage for touring artists who have been weighed down by costly red tape including demands for visas, customs forms and other bureaucracy.
However, there is unlikely to be any immediate solution to the most obvious impact of being outside the EU for most British holidaymakers – longer queues for passport checks.
The EU has meanwhile made a youth mobility scheme, to make it easier for under-30s to travel and live on either side of the border with the UK, one of its key demands.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is attempting to win concessions on data sharing to help the UK tackle the small boats crisis, as the price for agreeing a deal on easier youth migration.
Best case scenario: Both sides get almost (the differences on youth mobility means some degree of compromise is inevitable) everything they want – with the UK gaining access to EU databases to tackle the Channel crisis, as well as long promised deals on professional and artist mobility. The EU gets a youth mobility deal that isn’t so restricted by time limits and quotas as to make no difference to young Europeans.
Worse case scenario: The UK and EU cannot find a landing zone in negotiations on youth mobility and this scuppers a deal in all the other areas on migration. The summit produces only a vague commitment to work more on these issues.
What critics will say: A youth mobility deal has long been regarded by UK ministers as potentially politically toxic, and the likes of Nigel Farage will argue that any agreement makes Starmer’s crackdown on immigration announced on Monday not worth the paper it is written on.
Some EU member states, led by France and Denmark, have made agreeing a deal to guarantee ongoing rights for their trawlers to fish in UK waters one of their main asks from the negotiations, as the current agreement is due to expire in 2026.
At one point, there was even a suggestion that the EU could withhold its support for a defence deal unless there was first an agreement on fishing rights.
Best case scenario: An offer from the UK to maintain the status quo on fishing rights for several years is accepted as enough by the EU, and unlocks cooperation in other areas.
Worst case scenario: The EU attempts to drive a hard bargain for greater fishing rights – including a potential lifting of the ban on sandeel fishing, designed to protect puffin birds – and makes clear it will not make deals on trade, or other areas, unless and until the UK agrees a comprehensive fishing deal.
What critics will say: Any deal to give away more access to UK waters will be seized upon as another dumping of the British industry’s interests in pursuit of other post-Brexit prizes. Even if Starmer agrees to maintain the status quo, some may argue he gave away one of Britain’s bargaining chips in return for not very much.
Trade
A so-called veterinary, or SPS, agreement is the centrepiece of Starmer’s bid to boost UK-EU trade ties by making it easier to move agriculture and food products across the border between the two.
The UK has already signalled it is willing to submit to EU demands for alignment with Brussels rules on agri-food trade to get a deal over the line, but is also facing demands to submit to European Court of Justice (ECJ) jurisdiction.
Best case scenario: Either a deal, or an early outline of one, is agreed at the summit and allows the UK to avoid direct ECJ oversight of agri-food trade, and ensures the Government does not have to transpose Brussels laws on to the statute book to align with EU rules, and instead can make its own equivalent laws.
A smoother border regime could lead to improved choices for shoppers and a potential reduction in food prices.
Worst case scenario: The two sides remain some way from a deal at the summit, with the EU making demands for the UK to absorb Brussels regulations wholesale and submit to direct ECJ oversight of the deal.
The EU may also make a deal on trade conditional on the UK making concessions on youth mobility or fishing.
What the critics will say: Brexiteers are likely to argue this deal makes the UK a rule-taker from Brussels and is a betrayal of the vote to leave the EU, although the Government is likely to counter that it is a price worth paying to avoid costly border checks.
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