Stat, Viz, Quiz: Barcelona’s Goal Obsession ...Middle East

Stat, Viz, Quiz is the Opta Analyst football newsletter. This week’s edition looks at a quirky Barcelona stat, Manchester City’s struggle to break down Southampton, and xG conquerors.

Imagine not watching Barcelona games.

In the last week they have been on the right and the wrong end of two seven-goal thrillers, one seeing them eliminated from the Champions League and the other putting them on the verge of sealing the La Liga title. There is a notable stat that sums up Barça’s remarkable season when it comes to goals, which we’ll dive into further in this edition of SVQ.

Manchester City have had a frustrating season, and that was almost perfectly summed up in their goalless draw at bottom-of-the-table Southampton on Saturday. We’ll be looking at some of the improbable data around an afternoon that gave Saints a very rare reason to smile.

Our Ask Opta question looks at your friend and ours, expected goals, while this week’s quiz includes Premier League players reaching certain landmarks.

As it’s sunny outside (where we are at least) let’s start this week’s newsletter in Spain.

If you haven’t done so already, you can subscribe below for free to receive SVQ every Tuesday.

STAT – Barcelona: Hat-Trick-Proof

When Real Madrid signed Kylian Mbappé, they hoped he would score hat-tricks in Clásicos. The Frenchman did just that on Sunday, bagging three goals against Barcelona in a game Los Blancos had to realistically win to stand a chance of catching their rivals in the title race in La Liga.

As it turned out, Mbappé’s efforts were not enough. Barcelona won 4-3 at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys to move within three points of sealing the title, and perhaps people shouldn’t have been surprised that Mbappé’s treble came in a game that Barça won anyway.

It is obviously a rare thing. Most teams who score three goals don’t lose the game, while a player scoring a hat-trick could also happen when a team scores four, five, six or more.

However, this season there have been three games involving a team from Europe’s top five leagues in which a hat-trick scorer has ended on the losing side. All three hat-tricks have come against Barcelona and yet Barça have gone on to win each time – and all three have also occurred since the turn of the year.

Firstly, Benfica’s Vangelis Pavlidis scored three times in the first half in the league phase of the Champions League game against Barça at the Estádio da Luz in January, but the Catalans dramatically won the game 5-4 in the dying seconds through Raphinha.

Borja Iglesias scored a hat-trick for Celta Vigo last month to put the visitors 3-1 up at Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, but another comeback from Barcelona saw them win 4-3, and yes, it was Raphinha who won it again deep in stoppage time, this time with a penalty. Then came this weekend’s dramatic win over Madrid despite Mbappé’s treble.

Serhou Guirassy also scored a hat-trick against them in the Champions League quarter-finals only to be eliminated, though that came in a 3-1 second-leg win for Borussia Dortmund, with Barcelona winning 5-3 on aggregate.

It may not be too surprising to anyone who has watched Hansi Flick’s side this season. They have scored 167 goals in all competitions at an average of 2.9 per game. That’s more than any other team from Europe’s top five leagues. Excluding own goals, they’ve managed 161 goals from a total team xG of 139.8.

They have scored at least four goals in 23 games this season, at least five goals in 11 games, and even scored seven times on two separate occasions. Barça aren’t exactly leaky at the back, though they have conceded at least three goals in eight different games in all competitions in 2024-25, and have conceded four goals in four different games.

Back to the stat at hand, and the only other time this season when a hat-trick wasn’t enough for a team from Europe’s top five leagues to win was in the Bundesliga in January when Myron Boadu hit three for Bochum in a 3-3 draw with RB Leipzig.

Although it has only happened three times this season – and all involving the same team – this isn’t a hugely rare occurrence. The last time a team from Europe’s top five leagues lost despite one of their players scoring a hat-trick while playing a team other than Barcelona was April 2024 – right at the end of last season – when Robin Hack’s three goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach were not enough to prevent a 4-3 loss at Hoffenheim.

So, if you’re a striker and you’re facing Barcelona, you might be licking your lips right now. You just might have to accept that you’ll probably still be on the losing side.

VIZ – Man City’s Southampton Stalemate Sorrow

When you’re a team on 11 points from 35 games, desperately wanting to get one more to avoid matching Derby County for the lowest total in a season in Premier League history, the last thing you want to see is Manchester City’s bus pulling into the car park.

However, Southampton showed all the determination needed to secure that very point on Saturday, with an excellent defensive performance to frustrate City and get a 0-0 draw to move onto the glorious total of 12 points… Well, not quite glorious, but you know what we mean.

Having said that, Pep Guardiola will be scratching his head, and not for the first time this season, at how his team didn’t win.

Manchester City had 26 shots at St. Mary’s, their most in a Premier League game without scoring since July 2020, which was also 26, also against Southampton.

It was the first time City failed to beat an opponent starting the day bottom of the table in the Premier League since November 2015 (0-0 vs Aston Villa), with that also the last time they were unable to score against such an opponent.

The visitors had 71.8% possession on Saturday, 14 shots in the opposition box and 76 touches in the opposition box, the third most by a team in a Premier League game this season. The only two occasions when a team has had more were Arsenal in their 4-2 win over Leicester in September (77) and City themselves in their 2-1 win at Wolves in October (85).

The last time a team had as many touches in the opponent’s box in a Premier League game and didn’t win was Brentford having 84 in their 1-1 home draw with Manchester United in April 2024.

While many looked at Southampton’s points total, not least poor old Derby, it was also notable that City dropped two points in their race to qualify for next season’s Champions League. They are still well placed to secure a top five place, though, with the Opta supercomputer seeing them do so in 92.9% of its simulations.

But hats off to Southampton and interim manager Simon Rusk for their efforts, even if Rúben Dias didn’t like it much.

QUIZ – Welbeck to 10, Wood to 20, and Merino’s Involvements

Five more questions to test your ‘ball’ knowledge. Answers at the bottom of the page.

1. Brighton’s Danny Welbeck has scored 10 goals in a single Premier League season for the very first time in his career. How many seasons did it take for the former Man Utd and Arsenal man to do so?

2. Newcastle United have scored four Premier League goals within the opening two minutes of matches this season – the joint-most of any side along with which other team?

3. Chris Wood’s header against Leicester City made him just the second player to reach 20 goals for Nottingham Forest in a Premier League campaign, after who?

4. Manchester United have fallen 1-0 behind 12 times at Old Trafford in the Premier League this season. Who are the only team to have conceded the first goal in more home games in the competition in 2024-25?

5. Since 15 February, Arsenal’s Mikel Merino has the second most goal involvements of Premier League players across all competitions (11 – 7 goals, 4 assists). Who has the most in that time?

Ask Opta

This week’s question comes from Ben Evans, who asks: “Which players have overperformed against their xG the most in each of the top four divisions in England this season?”

Do you have a stats-based football question you want to Ask Opta? If so, send it to [email protected] and we’ll do our best to provide you with the answer in a future edition of SVQ.

Answer:

Ah, overperforming xG. Something that garners opinions that vary from “They’re clearly a phenomenal finisher” to “That won’t last, they’re not really that good.” We’ll leave it up to you where you fall on the debate.

As for the Premier League, with two matchdays remaining, Chris Wood is the man to have defied his personal xG by the largest amount. The Nottingham Forest striker has 20 league goals this season from an xG of just 12.3, an overperformance of 7.7 xG.

In the Championship, by some distance, it was Burnley’s Josh Brownhill. The midfielder scored 18 goals from 10 xG, with his overperformance of 8 xG at least 3.1 higher than any other player.

In League One, Peterborough United’s Kwame Poku scored 12 goals from 6 xG, with his overperformance of 6 xG the highest in the third tier, while in League Two it was Accrington Stanley midfielder Ben Woods, who scored a frankly ridiculous nine goals from just 2 xG, an overperformance of 7 xG. Woods did attempt 55 shots in total, but his low xG is explained by the fact 46 of those attempts were from outside the box (six goals from outside the box).

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Quiz Answers

1. Brighton’s Danny Welbeck has scored 10 goals in a single Premier League season for the very first time in his career. How many seasons did it take for the former Man Utd and Arsenal man to do so?

This is his 17th campaign

2. Newcastle United have scored four Premier League goals within the opening two minutes of matches this season – the joint-most of any side along with which other team?

Brentford

3. Chris Wood’s header against Leicester City made him just the second player to reach 20 goals for Nottingham Forest in a Premier League campaign, after who?

Stan Collymore (22 goals in 1994-95)

4. Manchester United have fallen 1-0 behind 12 times at Old Trafford in the Premier League this season. Who are the only team to have conceded the first goal in more home games in the competition in 2024-25?

Leicester City (15)

5. Since 15 February, Arsenal’s Mikel Merino has the second most goal involvements of Premier League players across all competitions (11 – 7 goals, 4 assists). Who has the most in that time?

Bruno Fernandes (15 – 10 goals, 5 assists)

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