If there’s one thing everyone knows about the impact of the tariffs, it’s that no one knows anything. Confusion is the general theme as tariff rates go up and down depending on the day, and trade deals get announced that, well, don’t actually remove any tariffs.
So don’t feel bad if you have no idea how to plan for what’s coming. The one thing everyone agrees on is that we’re going to experience higher prices and shortages no matter what happens, because the last shipments of products that weren’t subject to the new tariffs have already arrived in the U.S. From this point forward, most of the stuff you want or need will be affected. This might make you feel like it’s 2020 again and it's time to start hoarding and stockpiling, but it’s not that simple: There are some items that you maybe should hoard a little to insure yourself against price increases and shortages, but some items aren’t going to pay off if you load up on them. Here’s what you should—and shouldn’t—think about stockpiling.
There’s a difference between panic-buying and trying to inoculate yourself from the impact of tariffs, and that difference comes down to being thoughtful. Your first step in a tariff stockpile plan is to focus on things you buy regularly or know you’re going to need in the near future. A few key items to consider include:
Toys. Chinese factories manufacture about 80% of the toys sold in the U.S., so if you have kids and want to have toys for birthdays, holidays, and other events, you might do some pre-planning and stock up on those items ASAP.
Prescriptions and OTC meds. Many prescription drugs already rely on a fragile and pretty narrow global supply chain, so trade disruptions will very likely make a long list of pharmaceuticals both harder to find and more expensive. If you rely on prescriptions, find out how large a supply you can get (you can often get at least a 90-day supply) and lay that in. This also applies to common over-the-counter medications and first-aid supplies, so these are a good idea to stockpile as well. This goes for your pets’ prescriptions as well, as they’re often manufactured in the same facilities and using the same suppliers. One caveat: Keep expiration dates in mind. Having expired acetaminophen in your cabinets isn’t exactly a win.
Pet food. Speaking of your pets, it might not be a bad idea to stockpile their food. Pet food is going to get more expensive both because many use imported ingredients in their formulas and because the tariffs on imported aluminum will wallop the cost of canning it all.
Food staples. If you’re worried about grocery prices during the tariff storm (and you probably should be), laying in a supply of staple foods that last a long time in storage is a good idea. Things like rice, canned goods, and beans can be stored for a long time, locking in current prices and protecting you from shortages. If you can preserve or can stuff like fruits or tomatoes, these can be added to your list. And if you eat a lot of tilapia (most of which we import from China), laying in a supply of frozen fillets will help keep your seafood night in action.
Coffee and chocolate. As many have noted, the only place in the U.S. that is even capable of producing coffee is Hawaii, which produces less than 1% of the coffee we drink. So creating an emergency supply of coffee for yourself will come in handy when getting a cup of coffee requires a credit check. Similarly, domestic chocolate production isn’t exactly huge, so if you have a sweet tooth it’s a good idea to buy some bars now.
Batteries. Much of the raw materials that go into most kinds of batteries are currently imported, and China is a huge supplier in that market. Expect batteries—even the disposable kind you buy at the supermarket—to get both pricier and harder to find. They last for a long time, so stockpiling them makes sense.
Underwear. You might not know that the U.S. imports a huge portion of our underwear from places like Vietnam, bringing in $2.21 billion worth of women's underwear alone last year. If you’re due for a refresh in that department, it would be a good idea to go underwear shopping right now.
Toothpaste, soap, and detergent. If you intend to not violate all the norms of acceptable grooming, you’re going to be spending a lot more for this stuff in the near future. The good news is that toothpaste can last for years in the tube, and soap and detergent have an infinite shelf life in practical terms, so buying in bulk now can protect you from price increases for years to come.
Glasses and contact lenses. If you think you’re going to need new glasses soon, or you need a regular supply of disposable contact lenses, now would be a good time to get those new frames or stockpile your contacts. China is the largest supplier of frames and the plastics used in making eyewear lenses, so the tariffs—even if reduced after trade negotiations—will raise those prices.
Spices. The U.S. currently imports almost all the spices you use in your recipes, because most spices require a tropical or sub-tropical climate to thrive. Everything from vanilla to oregano will be subject to import tariffs, so stocking up is a good idea.
Don't bother hoarding these items
Because the tariffs are so comprehensive, you can stock up on a lot of things without too much risk as long as you’re cognizant of spoilage and how much you actually use a particular product. But there are a few things that don’t make sense to hoard:
Toilet paper. If you’re haunted by pandemic memories of scrounging around for toilet paper, relax: Those shortages were mainly caused by the sudden shift from office bathrooms to home bathrooms, combined with panic-buying. Most of our toilet paper is made domestically, though most brands do import some wood pulp to make it, so you might notice some price increases. But you probably won’t see shortages.
Clothing. Unless you typically buy several years’ worth of clothing at a time, stocking up on pants and jackets doesn’t make sense despite the near-certainty of price increases. If you’re already planning to replace/refresh some of your wardrobe, it’s a good idea to go shopping sooner rather than later, but buying extra clothes in bulk won’t pay off.
Electronics. Similarly, prices will go up on almost anything with a power cord, but you probably don’t need to stock up on gadgets. The money you might save will be offset by the fact that those gadgets will likely be out of date and possibly obsolete by the time you need to replace your current stuff.
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