We look ahead to Sunday’s huge La Liga game at Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys with our Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction and preview. Can Carlo Ancelotti’s men claw their Clásico rivals back in the title race?
Barcelona vs Real Madrid Stats: The Key Insights
Barcelona will move within three points of the La Liga title with a victory over Real Madrid, and are favourites to do just that with the Opta supercomputer, winning 47.2% of simulations. Barça have won all three Clásico meetings this season, having only once beaten their rivals in four consecutive competitive games. Kylian Mbappé has scored 36 goals for Real Madrid this season, and needs just one more to equal the best scoring record for a player in their first season with the club.El Clásico is seldom a meaningless affair, but Sunday’s match between Barcelona and Real Madrid could be one of the most significant in recent memory.
With Barça sitting top of La Liga heading into the game, four points ahead of Madrid in second, a win for Hansi Flick’s side would all but confirm them as champions. However, victory for Carlo Ancelotti’s men at Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys will close the gap to just a single point with three games remaining.
How are your nerves?
The hosts will still be licking their wounds from an agonising exit from the Champions League in midweek, losing 4-3 to Inter (7-6 on aggregate) after extra-time at San Siro in one of the most exciting semi-finals in the competition’s history.
With Real Madrid also out of the Champions League, the La Liga title is the last major silverware on offer to either team this season, with Barcelona looking to clinch a domestic double (or treble if you include the Supercopa de España) after beating their old enemy in the recent Copa del Rey final.
European disappointment aside, the hosts come into this one in excellent form. Barcelona have not lost any of their last 15 games in La Liga (W13 D2), with their most recent defeat in the competition coming on 21 December against Atlético Madrid (2-1). They have not gone unbeaten in more consecutive matches since a run of 19 between December 2020 and April 2021 (W16 D3).
Madrid have kept pace with their rivals in recent weeks, winning their last four La Liga games; Los Blancos are yet to put together a run of five consecutive wins in the competition this season, though.
As anyone watching the Champions League semi-finals will be aware, Barcelona score goals. They have 91 in La Liga this season, their most after their first 34 games of a campaign since 2016-17 (101 goals). They will be looking to take advantage of a Real Madrid defence that has been unusually leaky this campaign, having conceded 33 goals, their worst defensive record at this stage of the campaign since 2018-19 (38 goals).
Lamine Yamal will be hoping to showcase his talents on the big stage again to add to the noise around the 17-year-old potentially already being the best player in the world, while Raphinha will be looking to add to his astonishing 54 goal involvements in all competitions this season (32 goals, 22 assists); only Mohamed Salah (56) has more of players from Europe’s top five leagues.
They will likely be joined in the front line by Robert Lewandowski, who returned from injury from the bench against Inter on Tuesday. The Pole has 40 goals in all competitions this season, while he also particularly likes playing against Real Madrid.
Lewandowski has 11 goals in 17 matches against them in all competitions; only Lionel Messi (26) and Luis Suárez (12) have scored more against Real Madrid in the 21st century (Antoine Griezmann and Samuel Eto’o also with 11 goals).
Barcelona boss Hansi Flick has enjoyed his meetings with Real Madrid as well, having won all three of his matches against them. Should he secure another victory on Sunday, he will be only the second manager in the history of El Clásico to win his first four competitive matches, after Pep Guardiola (five between 2008 and 2010).
If reports are to be believed, this could be Carlo Ancelotti’s last Clásico as Real Madrid manager, with the 65-year-old expected to be replaced by Xabi Alonso at the end of the season. Ancelotti has lost 12 of his 25 games against Barcelona in all competitions (W10 D3), more than against any other opponent in his entire managerial career.
Madrid really need to win to have a realistic chance of catching Barça in the title race, and will be looking to Kylian Mbappé for inspiration in attack. The France international has scored 36 goals in 52 matches for Real Madrid this season, and could equal the best scoring record for a player in his first season with the club, currently held by Iván Zamorano in the 1992-93 campaign (37 goals in 45 games).
Vinícius Júnior and Jude Bellingham are also expected to start, while Rodrygo should at least return to the squad after missing last week’s 3-2 win over Celta Vigo through illness.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head
Barcelona have an excellent record against Real Madrid this season, having won all three meetings across three competitions.
They thrashed their old enemy 4-0 at the Santiago Bernabéu in the reverse league fixture in October, with goals from Lewandowski (2), Yamal and Raphinha.
They scored plenty more in a 5-2 victory over Madrid in the Supercopa de España final in January.
Barcelona also won the Copa del Rey final between the two last month, beating Real Madrid 3-2 after extra-time thanks to a long-range strike from Jules Koundé.
Barça have only once in the entire history of El Clásico won four in a row, doing so between 2008 and 2010 under Guardiola (5).
That said, Real Madrid have won four of their last five away games against Barcelona in all competitions (L1), the same as in their previous 19 visits (W4 D7 L8).
Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction
A victory would take Barcelona to within just three points of the title with three games remaining, and the Opta supercomputer sees that as the likeliest outcome. Flick’s side secure a fourth consecutive win over the visitors in 47.2% of its 10,000 simulations.
Real Madrid could blow the title race wide open with a win, though, and they manage it in 29.7% of sims, with a draw that would favour Barça more occurring in the remaining 23.1%.
The supercomputer sees Barcelona go on to win the La Liga title in 85.5% of its sims, while Ancelotti’s men claw it back to retain their crown in the other 14.5%.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction Opta Analyst.
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