We look ahead to Thursday’s UEFA Europa League game at Old Trafford with our Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao prediction and preview. The Red Devils have one foot in the final.
Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao Stats: The Key Insights
Manchester United lead 3-0 from the first leg and have a 45.2% chance of winning Thursday’s match, according to the Opta supercomputer. Ruben Amorim’s team have a 98% probability of reaching the final and are made favourites to win the competition. United are unbeaten in their 13 UEFA Europa League games this season and could become only the seventh side to reach the competition’s final without losing a match en route.Manchester United; dismal in the Premier League, yet, somehow on the verge of reaching the UEFA Europa League final without losing a single match.
Even in the very worst of seasons – United are guaranteed to smash their club record for lowest Premier League finish ever – the Red Devils could still salvage not only a trophy, but a place in the UEFA Champions League next season.
Ruben Amorim is looking to become the first manager to reach a major European final in his first season in charge of an English club since Thomas Tuchel with Chelsea in the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League. José Mourinho, in the 2016-17 Europa League, is the only United manager to achieve this before.
The job isn’t done yet, but they have one foot in the final thanks to last week’s 3-0 victory at Athletic Club, who must hope for a miraculous turnaround at Old Trafford if they are to qualify for a showpiece event that their iconic San Mamés Stadium will host on 21 May.
United’s big win against 10 men in Bilbao came as a surprise to plenty, as they put one of La Liga‘s best teams to the sword.
Athletic’s success under Ernesto Valverde this season has been built on solid foundations. They have conceded just 26 goals in La Liga 2024-25, their joint-lowest tally ever after 34 games in a single season (also 26 in 1984-85).
No team in La Liga have conceded fewer goals this season, while only Atlético Madrid (31.5) have a lower expected goals against figure than Athletic (33.2).
Yet goals from Casemiro and Bruno Fernandes (who netted twice) in the first leg have put United firmly in control of this tie.
Despite floundering in the bottom half of the Premier League table, United are unbeaten in their 13 Europa League games this season (W8 D5) and could become only the seventh side to reach the competition’s final without losing a match en route. Benfica (2013-14), Chelsea (2018-19), Internazionale (2019-20), Villarreal (2020-21), Eintracht Frankfurt (2021-22) and Bayer Leverkusen (2023-24) are the others to achieve this.
In fact, United have lost just one of their last 30 home games in the Europa League (W23 D6), a 1-0 group stage defeat to Real Sociedad in September 2022. They must lose by at least three goals to be eliminated; the Red Devils have never lost a home game in any European competition by a margin of 3+ goals.
So, it’s a tough task for Athletic, who are out to avoid losing both legs of a knockout tie in major European competition for only the third time, after the 1967-68 Inter-Cities Fairs Cup quarter-final against Ferencvárosi TC and the 2017-18 Europa League last 16 against Marseille.
To make matters worse for Athletic, Valverde will be unable to call upon the services of Iñaki Williams and Nico Williams, who will miss out with respective hamstring and groin complaints.
Also missing out will be their leading scorer in La Liga, Oihan Sancet. He’s only the fifth Athletic player to score 15+ goals in a single La Liga season since the 2000-01 campaign, but he still hasn’t recovered from the muscle tear that ruled him out of the first leg.
As such, Athletic’s attacking options will be severely depleted. That’s hardly ideal against a United side who, despite having issues scoring domestically, have netted more than any other team (31, including one own goal) in the Europa League this term. In fact, only in 2002-03 (32) and 2020-21 (34) have they ever scored more in a single campaign in major European competition.
Fernandes, of course, will be integral to United’s attack. He has created 145 chances in all competitions this season, while only Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (34) and Radamel Falcao (30) have scored more goals in the Europa League than the Portugal international (27 – level with Romelu Lukaku), who also shares the competition record for assists (18 – level with Dries Mertens).
Indeed, only Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (56) has been directly involved in more goals for a Premier League side in all competitions this season than Fernandes (35 – 19 goals, 16 assists).
Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao Head-to-Head
In all major European competitions, only one side has ever won the first leg of a two-legged knockout tie away from home by 3+ goals and failed to progress, with Maccabi Tel Aviv doing so against Olympiakos in the 2023-24 UEFA Conference League last 16 (4-1 away win, 6-1 home defeat after extra-time).
In the five previous matches between United and Athletic, there have been 22 goals (4.4 per game), with the Red Devils scoring 12 and conceding 10. All five of those matches have seen at least three goals scored.
Athletic have lost seven of their nine previous away games against English sides in all European competitions (W1 D1), although their most recent was a 3-2 Europa League win over United in March 2012.
Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction
United have a 45.2% chance of winning the second leg, according to the Opta supercomputer, which rates Athletic’s win probability at 27.9%. The game was drawn in 26.9% of the model’s data-led simulations.
But when it comes to the overall tournament forecasts, United have a 98% likelihood of reaching the final, and they are also made the favourites to go on and beat either Tottenham Hotspur or Bodø/Glimt in Bilbao.
Amorim’s side came out with the trophy in 51% of the model’s tournament sims.
Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Thursday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction Opta Analyst.
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