Ukraine appears to have ramped up its drone attacks on Russia ahead of Moscow’s Victory Day parade, threatening to upend its pageant of military might.
Kyiv’s forces launched more than 500 drones into Russian territory since Putin’s self-imposed Easter truce ended at midnight on 20 April, analysis of open-source material by The i Paper suggests.
They are recorded on this map:
The most recent attack saw more than 100 drones fired at almost a dozen regions across Russia overnight into Tuesday. The Kremlin said its defences intercepted the vast majority.
On the second consecutive night in which Moscow was targeted, the attack forced all four airports around the Russian capital to temporarily suspend flights, the defence ministry in Moscow said.
Nine other regional Russian airports also temporarily stopped operating as drones struck areas along the border with Ukraine and deeper inside Russia, according to Russia’s civil aviation agency Rosaviatsia.
Russian service members march in columns during a rehearsal for a military parade in 2024 (Photo: Maxim Shemetov/Reuters)Russia has also pounded Ukraine with drone and missile strikes, causing dozens of casualties.
The latest drone assault comes as Russia readies itself for Victory Day, a celebration marking the end of the Second World War.
The day is Russia’s biggest secular holiday, where it displays its military might in parades, the largest in Moscow’s Red Square.
President Vladimir Putin had made the celebration of victory over Nazism a central part of Russian identity, presenting a warped version of the war’s history to justify the invasion of Ukraine.
Putin sought a temporary ceasefire with Ukraine to coincide with the event. Kyiv rejected the proposal, saying Putin only wanted to secure his parade.
Some 20 foreign dignitaries, including China’s leader, Xi Jinping, and Brazilian president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are expected to gather at the Russian capital on Friday.
With no ceasefire for Victory Day, Russia also has no certainty that Moscow or other major Russian cities would be safe at a pivotal moment.
Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow on the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House, told The i Paper: “Ukraine can also be fairly confident that on past performance, just because Russia is declaring a ceasefire doesn’t mean that Russia is going to cease firing.”
The analyst said Victory Day was a “prime opportunity for Ukraine to strike at high-value targets that are going to be concentrated in specific areas”, including the “extremely tempting target in central Moscow”, which will stage the main parade.
“The political aspect of it, Victory Day and calls for a ceasefire, is only going to be one factor among lots,” Giles said.
He also noted that the apparent upsurge in attacks “should not necessarily be tied to Victory Day” and were likely to be a result of “other operational factors” such as available stockpiles
Ukrainian drones have penetrated Russian defences and reached Moscow at least 19 times in the past two weeks, according to open-source material, though they appear not to have caused much damage.
Russian service members drive armoured vehicles, including Tigr-M all-terrain infantry mobility cars, after the rehearsal for the parade in 2024 (Photo: Reuters/Yulia Morozova)A further 21 drones have fired deep into central Russia, in areas surrounding Moscow, since the Easter truce.
While Moscow said the vast majority were intercepted, Ukraine has enjoyed success with its drone offensive.
Ukraine’s SBU security agency was responsible for a drone strike on the Murom Instrument-Building Plant, an ammunition factory 300 km (186 miles) east of Moscow on Wednesday last week, sources told Reuters. A separate attack hit the Kremniy-El plant, a Russian electronics plant in the city of Bryansk.
Giles said there was “no way of telling that from the information that we have” as to how effective drone strikes have been, as damage assessments from inside Russia are difficult to collect.
Ukraine has used increasingly sophisticated, domestically produced drones. It has helped narrow its odds against Russia’s vastly larger and better-equipped military.
The focus on producing drones in Ukraine has also allowed Kyiv to take the war onto Russian soil with long-range strikes.
Kyiv does not usually comment on or confirm drone attacks.
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