PSG vs Arsenal Prediction ...Middle East

A place in the UEFA Champions League final awaits after Wednesday’s semi-final second leg in the French capital. We look ahead to the clash with our PSG vs Arsenal prediction and preview.

PSG vs Arsenal Stats: The Key Insights

Paris Saint-Germain will have a slender 1-0 lead to defend when Arsenal visit Parc des Princes for the second leg of their UEFA Champions League semi-final on Wednesday.

Ousmane Dembélé scored after just four minutes at the Emirates Stadium last Tuesday before Mikel Merino saw what would have been a second-half equaliser ruled out for offside.

Dembélé’s strike was his eighth Champions League goal of the season, a tally only Zlatan Ibrahimovic can better in a single campaign for PSG (10 in 2013-14), and left Luis Enrique’s side with a narrow advantage to take back home.

The hosts will be confident given they have won three of their last four Champions League home games, netting 14 goals across those three victories. However, they’ve lost twice at Parc des Princes this season, against Liverpool and Atlético Madrid, only losing three at home in the same campaign in 2020-21.

João Neves was all over the Arsenal midfield at the Emirates and has made 51 tackles in this season’s competition, the most by a midfielder in a campaign since Arturo Vidal in 2014-15 (52).

Neves has also applied 756 high pressures to opponents in 2024-25, over 100 more than any other player, and will likely slot into the engine room alongside Vitinha and Fabián Ruiz once again for the return leg.

It is not just the battling physical aspect of this PSG side that is impressive, however. They have made 150 line-breaking passes that have broken the defensive line in the Champions League this season, second only to Bayern Munich (156). Talisman Dembélé accounts for 25 of those, the joint most of any player this campaign, but could be a doubt for Wednesday due to a hamstring issue sustained in the first leg.

Arsenal will want more from their own midfield maestro on Wednesday. Declan Rice made the most line-breaking passes in the final third (6), while completing the joint-most passes on either team in the first leg (50).

The England midfielder leads all Arsenal players in the 2024-25 competition for line-breaking passes leading to both shots (7) and goals (3), and Mikel Arteta will be desperate for Rice to deliver in the French capital.

Arteta may head into this clash with some confidence as well, considering Arsenal have won each of their last four away games in the Champions League. However, they have never won five in a row on the road across all European competition before.

History is somewhat against the Premier League side, too, given only two teams have ever reached the Champions League final having lost the first leg of their semi-final tie at home. Ajax overcame Panathinaikos in 1995-96, and Arsenal’s fierce rivals Tottenham managed the same against Ajax in 2018-19.

Arsenal have never progressed when losing the first leg of a European tie at home, however. In stark contrast, PSG have only been eliminated once when winning the opening meeting of a two-legged tie, crashing out against Manchester United in 2018-19.

Wednesday will mark a pivotal moment for both sides as well, with each aiming to reach only their second Champions League finals. PSG did so in 2019-20 before losing to Bayern, while Arsenal fell in the 2005-06 showpiece to Barcelona.

Luis Enrique rested all of his first-choice players bar Nerves for Saturday’s 2-1 defeat to Strasbourg with this tie in mind. Arteta did not follow suit, with Arsenal falling by the same scoreline to Bournemouth despite naming an almost full-strength starting XI.

PSG vs Arsenal Head-to-Head

Arsenal have lost their last two visits to French sides in all competitions, against Rennes in 2019 and Lens in 2023, having been unbeaten in their first 13 such away games (W8 D5).

However, there will still be some home nerves. PSG’s first-leg victory was their first win against Arsenal in six attempts (D3 L2).

Arteta may feel his side should have, at least, managed a draw in the opening meeting after Arsenal accumulated 1.63 expected goals to PSG’s 1.16, though Gianluigi Donnarumma was in fine form for Luis Enrique’s visitors.

The omens aren’t great for Arsenal’s chances of overturning the deficit; both of the Gunners’ previous trips to PSG finished 1-1 (March 1994, September 2016), which would – of course – be enough to send the hosts through as aggregate winners.

PSG vs Arsenal Prediction

The Opta supercomputer favoured a home win as PSG triumphed in 90 minutes across 45.4% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.

It’s hard to expect Luis Enrique to set up for a draw, though that result was rated at 24.6%, slightly behind Arsenal’s winning likelihood of 30.0%.

PSG’s first-leg victory saw them jump to favourites to go all the way in Opta’s tournament predictions, with their silverware chances valued at 41.6%. Arsenal’s hopes have dropped from 31.3% before kick-off last Tuesday to 11.2%.

PSG vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday night at Parc des Princes, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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PSG vs Arsenal Prediction Opta Analyst.

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