There will be no Game 1 specific preview for this matchup today because the turnaround was incredibly quick. I spent my Sunday with friends trying to recover from what was an incredible back-and-forth series with the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Denver Nuggets won Game 7 to advance, and they didn’t have the same luxury that I did. They celebrated on Saturday night following the lengthy series, then they boarded a flight at around 1:30pm mountain time yesterday to travel to Oklahoma City. There, the OKC Thunder await them, fresh as daisies in early spring.
The Thunder wrapped up their series against the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday, April 26th, a comfortable sweep won by a margin of 78 points overall. Since then, they’ve had nine days to rest and prepare for whichever war torn team emerged from Nuggets-Clippers. Denver ultimately prevailed, but not before they showed several unique adjustments vs Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, and the Clippers. The Thunder weren’t just lounging by the pool during that time. They were watching the games closely and preparing for both teams. The Nuggets haven’t had the same luxury. They’ve had about 36 hours to seriously consider who they’re playing.
If you don’t know by now, the Thunder are the best team in the Western Conference, certainly the best team left standing. A 68-14 regular season record and +12.7 Net Rating, the Thunder weren’t just great, but historically so. Few teams in NBA history have shown as much dominance and consistency, and they’re the most well-rested team in the NBA because of their elite depth and strong star power.
Led by likely MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder have a historically great defensive identity surrounding their best player. 12 different players averaged at least 16 minutes per game in the regular season, and nine players averaged at least 13 minutes per game in the first round. While most teams shrink their rotations to extreme levels in the postseason, the Thunder may be the rare exception to the rule with the ability to apply fresh players to different situations throughout a playoff series.
Against the Nuggets, the Thunder will likely start SGA, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams (first time All-Star this year), Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Hartenstein. That unit presents an impressive combination of size, physicality, and defense. The Nuggets did just see the Clippers apply some similar lineups, but while James Harden and Norman Powell were clear targets to attack offensively, SGA will certainly have more success containing his own assignments. The Nuggets can of course attempt to wear down SGA by lopping him into every action, but it’s far more likely that Denver burns out trying to accomplish the same thing.
There’s an argument that the Nuggets can defend that unit reasonably well. After stepping up to the plate and guarding the Clippers when it mattered, the Thunder, while perhaps more talented, are built in similar ways. If the Nuggets can play with the same level of effort and intensity they showed against the Clippers, then they might disrupt the Thunder at times. Of course, that’s a big if based on circumstance, especially early in the series when the fatigue factor is most disparate.
Where the Thunder will expect to separate is with their bench. In order, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins played double-digit minutes off the bench for the Thunder in the first round. With Nikola Jokic involved in this series, I’d also expect backup center Jaylin Williams to get the occasional look in double-big lineups with Chet Holmgren. It’s a truly formidable group and very possible that any or all of those players would play for the Nuggets in these playoffs if available.
Still, Russell Westbrook and Peyton Watson both fared well in Game 7, with Westbrook making a major impact throughout the series. Among all bench players to play a significant role in the playoffs so far, Westbrook has been one of the most productive and effective in the entire NBA. The Nuggets needed him to step up to give them an edge off the bench they didn’t have for much of the year, and he has done exactly that.
Are Westbrook and Watson enough? Probably not. Aaron Gordon will rotate in as the backup center often, but the Nuggets need a guard or forward to step up if that’s the case. Perhaps DeAndre Jordan can play when Hartenstein is on the court, but if it’s a game of small ball, the Nuggets may need to consider opening the rotation back up to one or more of Jalen Pickett, Julian Strawther, Vlatko Cancar, or Zeke Nnaji, of only to get the starters a bit of extra rest early on.
The MVP battle between Jokic and SGA will be very interesting. I would expect SGA to be presented the award in front of fans before Game 2 of this series, and he earned it for his work during the regular season. Was he singularly more impactful than Jokic? Probably not, but he was spectacular this year, and his game led to a lot of winning for OKC.
Jokic struggled a bit to end the series. After a masterclass in game 4 that featured 36 points, 21 rebounds, and eight assists, Jokic averaged just 18.0 points per game on 16.3 shot attempts in the final three games of the series. He appeared worn down, and though his defense was very good in the series, the Nuggets will need his scoring and decision making to be on point. As awesome as Game 7 was from the entire rotation, expecting that level of performance across the board would be ridiculous. Jokic may have to simplify things for his team, and if that means a couple games scoring 30+ or even 40+, then so be it. The rest of the impact will be there as long as he can limit the turnovers against one of the best turnover generating defenses in the NBA. The Grizzlies averaged 19.25 turnovers per game in the first round against the Thunder. Denver cannot let that happen, and it starts with Jokic.
It also means Jamal Murray has to be even better. With averages of 22.9 points, 5.9 assists, and 5.5 rebounds per game while maintaining a 58.2% True Shooting, Murray was clearly “good enough” in the first round vs the Clippers. Interestingly, the Nuggets won his gigantic 43-point outburst in Game 5, but his next most efficient scoring games after that one were all losses. If the Thunder are forced to account too strongly for Murray, then that might lead to other opportunities for teammates. In the end though, Murray has to be worthy enough and responsible enough with that extra attention. That Nuggets will need him to be almost as precise as Jokic if they have any chance of success here.
Christian Braun will guard SGA for much of the series. He’s way better than James Harden, so good luck to Braun here. He will have to be better than ever.
Michael Porter Jr. will probably guard Lu Dort a lot, but the Thunder will also try and get him to guard SGA in isolation or at least involve him in as many off-ball actions as possible. Porter has potential to impact this series with his size and shooting, but with only one shoulder, a hounding OKC defense, and tired legs, I’m worried about him a bit.
Aaron Gordon will likely guard Jalen Williams in the starting group, but he also might spend time guarding Chet Holmgren throughout the series. Assuming SGA does what he’s supposed to do and plays like an MVP, the Nuggets cannot also have big games from both the second and third best scorers on the team. Denver will need to take away at least one, if not both. As great as Gordon was battling Kawhi Leonard, Jalen Williams is a far quicker, more agile matchup, and Denver has struggled with him at times. However they get it done, whether that’s looping in Westbrook or Watson off the bench, going zone more frequently, or sending the occasional double team, the Nuggets must keep OKC from getting too comfortable in this series, or else they will probably be the snowball rolling downhill in these playoffs.
Overall, this is either going to be a helluva series or OKC running wild. The version of the Nuggets that closed the series against the Clippers can challenge OKC. They flew around defensively, made important shots following double teams, and out-hustled an older Clippers team that wore down by Game 7. Can they do the same against a Thunder team that’s young, well-rested, and hungry for playoff success? I doubt it.
Even though the Nuggets and Thunder split the series in the regular season, I don’t expect them to be fully operational after a long, drawn out thriller vs the Clippers. I think OKC takes this one in five or six games as the Nuggets struggle to recover their mojo in time. By the end of the series, Denver will have either figured out how best to challenge OKC or have run out of gas entirely.
Whatever the case, this is about to be some serious basketball. The Clippers were a good team. The Thunder are a great one, ready to test whether the Nuggets can become a great team too.
Series Preview: Denver Nuggets face their greatest challenge vs Oklahoma City Thunder Mile High Sports.
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