The Premier League campaign ends this month but myriad permutations mean there could still be 10 English clubs playing across the three European competitions next season.
It’s complicated, and had Gary Lineker gleefully opening last Saturday’s Match of the Day with a lengthy explainer that ended, “Simple, really… well that’s all we’ve got time for this week!”
Where Newcastle United finish has an impact, so too Chelsea, but every position is worth fighting for, and what Fulham, Brighton, Bournemouth and Brentford need only concern themselves with is that eighth could still be enough for a Conference League spot.
For that to happen, Manchester City must beat Crystal Palace in the FA Cup final, and that this Wembley meeting takes place eight days (17 May) before the Premier League’s final day means the permutations will be much clearer in the week leading up to 26 May.
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What Formula One would call a midfield battle is therefore worth keeping an eye on, especially with the title sewn up and the relegation places already decided.
It is set to be as intriguing as the battle for fifth, and be sure to not sleep on the Bees.
The table may regularly be shown in two halves but really the top should include 11th-placed Brentford, because not only are they still in with a shout of eighth, but they have a run-in that suggests they could yet pip the lot.
Brentford next host a Manchester United side on Sunday who will rightly be distracted by the upcoming Europa League semi-final second leg. A league finish matters not for United, but for Brentford it is everything, and the Bees will hope to capitalise on this before games against Ipswich (away), Fulham (home) and Wolves (away).
The West London derby on 18 May stands out. It falls a day after Palace’s shot at FA Cup glory – a first major trophy would put them into the Europa League – but if City win, as expected, then Brentford or Fulham can get a jump in what would be a meaningful scrap for eighth.
Currently, just two points separate Fulham, Brighton, Bournemouth and Brentford, and the tightness of this race is suitably summed up by Opta’s projections.
All four teams have anywhere between an 18 to 27 per cent chance of finishing in each of the four places between eighth and 11th, and while Fulham’s most likely finish is deemed eighth at 24.8 per cent, Brentford also have a higher percentage rate of finishing there at 26.7.
Make sense? No? A bit? It sure is muddled, and has Thomas Frank all philosophical as his side target a first-ever European campaign.
“It’s tricky. Do you want to be a European club, but what is a European club?” Frank told Sky Sports this week, stressing the financial might of those around and crucially below them will not make this a yearly occurrence.
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They have though, as Frank puts it, “added layers”, emphatically getting over the loss of Ivan Toney to Al-Ahli thanks to Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa, their 18 and 17 league goals respectively making Brentford the only club with two players in the top 10.
Aptly, a strikeforce the envy of clubs above them means Brentford have outscored the five clubs above them in the table, while Mikkel Damsgaard (10) is one of just five Premier League players to have reached double digits for assists.
As a result, it would be legitimate to question why Brentford are trailing in this race. A leakier defence than Fulham and Bournemouth is one simple explanation, likewise their 13 defeats, which have been scattered throughout one of the more bizarre runs of fixtures going.
Midway through the season, Brentford were 12th, their form reading W7 D3 L9, all seven of those wins coming at home against clubs currently in the bottom half of the table.
Conversely, their dreadful start on the road was on account of their difficult trips, beginning at Liverpool and then Manchester City, with a first away win not arriving until 4 January at Southampton, a club capable of lifting any opponent out of a slumber.
Brentford have since struggled at home and improved away, largely because of this lopsided fixture list flipping around, with tougher outfits visiting the Gtech Community Stadium since the New Year.
Crucially, though, they have already picked up more points in this second half of the season (25 points from 15 games) than they managed in the first half (24 points from 19 games), and could yet finish with a flourish.
They are now on a four-game unbeaten run after winning at Nottingham Forest on Thursday, with that 2-0 victory propelling them back into the Europe conversation.
“There is a few things that need to happen,” Frank said, adding: “There’s a few things that we cannot control ourselves.
“In our last 12 games we have been extremely consistent and performed well. There’s another big game on Sunday which we will do our best to win.”
An under-strength United would be just the ticket for Brentford, who like Sunday’s opponents have Europe firmly in their sights despite their position.
Don’t count them out.
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