Why Andrea Jenkyns’s success is a risk for Farage ...Middle East

Within moments of winning the race to become mayor of Greater Lincolnshire, Andrea Jenkyns was already stirring up controversy.

In her acceptance speech, she pledged that Reform will “reset Britain to its glorious past” and suggested that asylum seekers should be living in tents not hotels.

It is the kind of robust and populist language that Jenkyns, a former Conservative minister under Boris Johnson, has made herself known for on the national stage.

Observers suggest it is something the public can expect to see a lot more of now that Jenkyns, 50, has become the first Reform politician to hold real power.

As mayor of the newly created combined authority, Jenkyns has control over a £24m-a-year investment fund and can, in theory, set policy over a wide range of areas such as transport, skills, education and housing.

But reacting to the victory, Labour Party chairwoman Ellie Reeves said that people will now start to “take a closer look at Reform’s policies” rather than the party’s “hype”.

What might we learn about Reform’s plans for power from Andrea Jenkyns?

Born in Beverley, East Yorkshire, Jenkyns left school at 16 to work in a branch of Greggs bakery and didn’t enter politics until she reached her thirties, when she was first elected as a Tory councillor in Lincolnshire.

She graduated from the University of Lincoln aged 40, before defeating Labour’s Ed Balls to become an MP in West Yorkshire in one of the shocks of the 2015 election.

Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage campaigns with Greater Lincolnshire mayoral candidate Dame Andrea Jenkyns in Scunthorpe, Lincolnshire (Photo: Peter Byrne/PA Wire)

A former music teacher and Miss UK contestant, Jenkyns has bounced back several times in her political career, including defeat to Ukip in 2013 and losing her seat in Morley and Outwood at the general election last year.

In 2022, Jenkyns, then an education minister, was memorably pictured sticking her middle finger up to a crowd outside Downing Street shortly before Johnson’s resignation.

A stronger backer of Brexit and the former Prime Minister, Jenkyns began flirting with Reform last year before agreeing a deal with Nigel Farage to switch allegiances in November.

‘Most important Reform politician in the country’

One thing is for sure – Jenkyns will not be shy about making her feelings known and could find herself becoming an influential figure in Reform.

“She’s the most important Reform politician in the country and that’s got big implications for Farage,” one insider told The i Paper.

“Either she will get nothing done or she will toxify the brand.

“I think it’s risky – if the whole point is they want to make Nigel Farage Prime Minister, they have to make a success of something before.

“Lincolnshire and maybe Hull is the petri dish.

“The danger is she will be everywhere. She’s naturally going to become a big figure.

“It’s different because she’s not got her own government, but you can see how she will be on every political comment show.

“What Andrea says will become what they [Reform] think. “

But how will Jenkyns’s unashamedly outspoken style suit the tricky world of local government, where building political consensus and dealing with bureaucratic hurdles is essential?

As mayor of Greater Lincolnshire, her decisions will have to be signed off by Conservative leaders at North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire councils.

Dr Ryan Swift, researcher at the IPPR North think-tank, said Jenkyns will need to “manage that relationship” and that a major part of the role of a mayor is about “convening power” and bringing people together.

“We will need to see quite a significant shift from that bombastic campaign rhetoric to a more practical, delivery-focused approach,” he told The i Paper.

“There’s a need in the role for metro mayors to put the interests of your place first, ahead of your party political interests.

“It will be interesting to see if she can adapt to that.”

Dr Swift said that being a Reform mayor will “definitely” boost Jenkyns’s profile – but that how she chooses to use her voice is not yet clear.

“There’s the standing up and being heard side, but there’s also the practical delivery side,” he added.

“The way she manages that and prioritises that will probably determine how successful she is in terms of improving the lives of people in Greater Lincolnshire.

“Whether she’s standing up for their interests or wider party interests that might not actually benefit the area – that will be an interesting line for her to tread.”

What happens if rivals block her policies?

Having given a bloody nose to both Labour and the Conservatives, Reform is likely to have few friends at either local or national government level who want to see them succeed.

In the North of England, Labour’s group of mayors – including influential former Health Secretary Andy Burnham – have often presented a united front to Westminster.

The i Paper understands Jenkyns will not be invited to join “Great North” – a new branding eight of the North’s mayors signed up to last September, including Ben Houchen, the Tory mayor for Tees Valley.

The decision was made before Jenkyns’s victory because it was felt that Greater Lincolnshire – an authority with awkward geography – was not sufficiently aligned with northern objectives.

And closer to home, Rob Waltham, leader of North Lincolnshire council, was the Tory candidate Jenkyns defeated in the mayoral campaign.

Insiders questioned whether Waltham is likely to want to help Jenkyns push through controversial policies.

Among Jenkyns’s manifesto pledges was a commitment to copy Donald Trump’s playbook and create DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] Lincolnshire, to cut “government waste”.

She also promised to say “no to net zero madness” – claiming such policies are “crippling Lincolnshire’s economy”.

“I think given the cuts we’ve seen at local government over the last 10 or 15 years that’s necessarily what voters want, they want to see investment, they don’t want more services cut,” Dr Swift added.

“If that was a route she goes down I think it would be challenging.

“Reform have been critical of the Net Zero agenda but if you look at what’s going on in Lincolnshire, especially around the Humber, there’s lots of opportunities for investment.

“So whether she can park some of that ideological opposition and act in the interest of the area, or whether she sees it as more of a national role standing up to the Government in Westminster – a lot will depend on how she approaches the role.”

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