For months, Southern Californians have enjoyed front-row seats for the buildup to the 151st Kentucky Derby, watching three local horses take turns at the top of the Derby odds boards, one winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar last fall and the next two scoring impressive victories at Santa Anita this winter and spring.
There’s little doubt here that the 3-year-old named Journalism, having trounced Citizen Bull and Barnes in the Santa Anita Derby in April, is a deserving favorite to win as the field of up to 20 horses prepares to go into the starting gate at Churchill Downs at about 3:57 p.m. Pacific time Saturday.
Journalism goes in with an uncommon set of attributes: Three consecutive graded stakes wins (none of his opponents has even two in a row). The two highest Beyer speed figures in the field, a 108 and 102 in his latest starts. Pedigree and strong finishes that say he’ll like the added distance of the 1 1/4-mile Derby. A stalking style that should handle a very fast or super-slow pace. Thanks to a troubled trip in the Santa Anita Derby, some experience with rough-and-tumble racing. And seasoned handlers in lead owner Aron Wellman, trainer Michael McCarthy and jockey Umberto Rispoli.
A Journalism bettor may get every cent of the 3-1 morning-line odds, because the public likes to spread its money among long shots at the Derby.
Or a Journalism bettor can win many times that 3-1 by figuring out the right higher-odds horses to connect with the top choice in exactas, trifectas and superfectas.
Beyond the favorite’s solid credentials, this Derby is characterized by an unusual number of front-running horses. Seven led or dueled for the lead throughout their most recent victories. They include Wood Memorial winner Rodriguez (12-1 on the morning line) and 2-year-old champion Citizen Bull (20-1), both drawing even more attention than they should as six-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert returns to Churchill Downs’ biggest days after a three-year suspension; and Virginia Derby winner American Promise (30-1), trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the 89-year-old four-time Derby winner. A fight for the lead is likely to produce a faster than normal early pace.
That hurts the chances of the speed horses and improves the potential for a come-from-behind winner. When you watch the race, keep in mind that under average track conditions, fractions faster than 46.5 seconds for the first half-mile and 1:11.1 for the first three-quarters typically set up a winner from off the pace.
It’s less risky this time to back a stretch runner like Sandman (6-1 third choice), who looks like the best of the closers after rallying from next-to-last in a nine-horse field to finally get home in front in the Arkansas Derby; Burnham Square (12-1), who came from last for a hard-fought win in the Blue Grass Stakes; Sovereignty (5-1), a gaining second to since-injured Tappan Street in the Florida Derby, or Luxor Cafe (15-1), the better of two entrants from Japan.
It takes only one long shot hitting the board in an otherwise chalky Derby to make a multi-horse bettor’s day – or year. In 2014, 37-1 shot Commanding Curve finishing second behind favorite California Chrome triggered a $170 exacta, $1,712.30 trifecta and $7,691.90 superfecta (payoffs for $1). In 2018, 85-1 Instilled Regard getting up for fourth behind popular winner Justify blew up the superfecta to $19,618.20.
Key long-shot possibilities for me Saturday are Grande (20-1), East Avenue (20-1), Final Gambit (30-1), Tiztastic (20-1) and Coal Battle (30-1).
Grande would be a real swing for the fences. The colt trained by two-time Derby winner Todd Pletcher for outspoken owner Mike Repole comes in without much buzz despite finishing second to Rodriguez in the Wood Memorial with a sustained rally following early trouble. It’s hard to get too smitten with a horse who has raced only three times and defies Derby convention by not having raced as a 2-year-old. Many inexperienced horses have flopped in the Derby, like fourth-time starter Just a Touch, my upset pick in 2024 who encountered a bit of bumping and caved in to finish last. But a few have been on the rise, like Derby winners Big Brown in 2008, Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023.
The real X factor is Baeza, for the simple reason that he’s still on the also-eligible list and will be able to run only if a horse drops out by Friday morning. Baeza, trained by Derby winner John Shirreffs, would be the victim of a rule change that subtracted qualifying points from the Santa Anita Derby when the race drew only five starters. But if he gets in, he’s a threat, his second-place finish at Santa Anita, three-quarters of a length behind the winner, being the closest anyone has come to beating Journalism in his three stakes wins at 5-2, 3-1 and even money.
The Baeza saga is only the final twist in the Derby preps season that began in earnest with Citizen Bull’s upset victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November. This column offered its first list of 20 Derby horses to watch in January; East Avenue was No. 1, Journalism No. 6, and only five of the 20 wound up entered in the Derby. The list was updated in February, with Journalism on top; eight of the 20 are in the Derby (nine if Baeza draws in).
My picks now: 1. Journalism, 2. Sandman, 3. Baeza (if he gets in), 4. Grande.
Combine the likely winner with the right long shot in a multi-horse bet, and something great could happen.
Journalism could finally be a money-making proposition.
Follow horse racing correspondent Kevin Modesti at X.com/KevinModesti.
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