What a difference four years make.
After the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks met in the 2021 NBA Finals, the most competitive iteration of the championship series since the Cavaliers-Warriors clashes, both franchises have won a combined three playoff series. Neither team even made it back to the conference finals and won’t be for quite some time.
Phoenix’s current grim outlook has been forecasted plenty. The Suns plan to work with Kevin Durant on a trade this offseason, will explore all the potential ways to get rid of Bradley Beal and attempt a “pivot and reload” around Devin Booker.
Milwaukee’s directive is a lot more clear after being eliminated in the first round for the third straight year on Tuesday, especially after the awful news to come out of it for Damian Lillard, an Achilles injury that could keep him sidelined for all of next year as well.
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The Lillard acquisition was the Bucks’ version of the Durant trade, a big-time swing at a star to place alongside their franchise icon Giannis Antetokounmpo. The 35-year-old Lillard is on the books for $54 million next year and has a $58 million player option the season after. Kyle Kuzma, Milwaukee’s lesser version of the Beal trade back in February, is the only player besides those two and rookie Tyler Smith that is on a guaranteed contract next year without options.
The Bucks, also like the Suns, do not have control over their own draft picks across the next six years, with swaps in 2026, 2028 and 2030 giving them at least some selections in the future.
They’re screwed, even more so than Phoenix, because there is no conceivable out. Yes, the extent to which the Suns are also doomed is well documented, but the Durant trade along with other movable picks and salaries will at least allow Phoenix to reshuffle its roster. Milwaukee doesn’t really have that opportunity beyond trading a 2031 or 2032 first-round pick.
Which is why the noise surrounding Antetokounmpo’s future will be at an all-time high.
Antetokounmpo turns 31 years old in December and has two more years left on his contract, plus a player option beyond that for the 2027-28 season. He is about to finish top-5 in MVP voting for the seventh straight year, continuing to undoubtedly hold a claim as one of the first names that should come out of your mouth when discussing the best in the world.
By all accounts, he holds a strong connection to the Milwaukee area and has won a championship there. The question is if that’s enough of a reason for him to see out the rest of his career there because there isn’t really going to be another reason to.
And as we saw with Luka Doncic, it is not up to the player sometimes. The Bucks could be incentivized themselves to go beyond Antetokounmpo’s wishes and do what’s best for them. While Milwaukee can clear up a lot of money by 2027, it has little developmental talent on the roster and no valuable draft selections coming up to replenish the core surrounding Antetokounmpo.
That is where we arrive at how this could complicate how Phoenix goes about its offseason.
Durant’s availability and the “sweepstakes” surrounding where he could go was set to be the headlining act of the summer. It will now be usurped by Antetokounmpo, unless he and the Bucks come out to say he is going nowhere.
To be said in a way not to diminish the obvious loads of interest there will still be for Durant, Antetokounmpo at this point in his career is on a whole other level. To go back to the MVP finishes for him, Durant hasn’t finished top-5 in voting since 2016. He will be 37 years old in September, and while you’re still getting someone with plenty in the tank, Antetokounmpo remains in his prime.
That is why if Antetokounmpo is available, he will almost assuredly be the first of the two superstars to get moved.
Teams like Houston, Oklahoma City and San Antonio that could theoretically be interested in Durant all have the type of draft pick capital to be in the hunt for Antetokounmpo. They will want to see that out before discussing too deeply on Durant. And if one of those teams is actually the perfect fit for a Durant trade (like the Rockets), they could instead dedicate their assets (like Phoenix’s own picks) toward Antetokounmpo.
Maybe that’s not entirely the case. Perhaps one of those franchises or another will be zeroed in on Durant regardless of who else could be out there, even if that is someone of Antetokounmpo’s caliber.
It does, however, make you wonder if this will still allow the Suns to operate on their own clock. Milwaukee will want to take all its time to get this absolutely right. It is in no rush. The Suns always seem like they’re in a rush, and in this case, will want to get all their ducks in a row prior to the draft and free agency so its reset around Booker for a competitive roster next year can properly take shape.
They, along with Durant, were about to control how this offseason went. That may have just slipped through their fingers.
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