Manchester United stand in the way of a historic Europa League final at San Mamés for Athletic Bilbao. What are the key tactical battles in a tie that could define an era at the Basque club?
Athletic Club are dreaming big, and who can blame them? A potential Europa League final at their own stadium, the cathedral that is San Mamés. There’s almost a feeling of destiny about how this whole season is playing out. Any other club might even be tempted into complacency. But not Athletic, and especially not this version of Athletic.
Since Ernesto Valverde – in his third spell at the club – slipped back into the manager’s seat three years ago as though he had never left, Athletic Club have been one of Spain’s most consistent teams. Since his return on 30 June 2022, only Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid have won more games in the league. They are behind only the big three in expected goal (xG) difference (45.6), and comfortably ahead of Villarreal in fifth (26.7). Valverde has quietly and thoroughly cemented Athletic as Spain’s fourth team.
It’s not fair to say that this season feels like the culmination of Valverde’s reign because there is more to come, but 2024-25 has the chance to be one of the most special in the long history of the club.
After overcoming Rangers in the quarter-finals, waiting for them in the semis are Manchester United, a club that perhaps doesn’t do destiny or fate. There doesn’t seem to be much logic to things at Old Trafford these days. One minute, they’re edging a fever dream of a 5-4 win against 10-man Lyon, the next they’re trudging to a 1-0 home defeat to Wolves.
But the Basque Leones are not Lyon. They’re not Wolves either. Athletic Club are something else entirely and unless United can figure out what they’ll be up against, the Premier League side could be run over by a team who know exactly who they are and what they’re trying to achieve.
Ahead of Thursday’s first leg in Bilbao, here’s five questions Ruben Amorim will need to answer and solve over the next 180 minutes of football his side faces.
Match prediction
FootballAthletic Bilbao vs Manchester United Prediction
7 hours ago Andrew BeasleyAre United Ready for a Midfield Battle?
Athletic Club are, and always have been, a physical side. Their style of play has almost always centred around bodies crashing into bodies. This season, it’s a little more nuanced. They don’t win many duels, they just see them as a setup for what comes next: ball recovery.
No team in La Liga is better at picking up loose balls in the middle third. Athletic average 22.5 possession wins per game in that zone, more than anyone else in Spain’s top flight. It’s not about smashing through opponents, but about making you think you have a second, and then taking the ball away before you can use it.
There is no team in La Liga winning a smaller percentage of their duels than Athletic Club, just 46.5%. But they average 52.1 recoveries per game, just a hair behind Rayo Vallecano (52.2), who lead the league. They are incredibly strategic about it, too. It’s not endless pressing and reckless energy. Valverde has built his team to strike with surgical precision.
Managing the physical side has been just as key. Athletic have been balancing a sprint toward Champions League qualification with the slow-burn of a European run, and last week, they might have finally pulled clear. They won 1-0 against Las Palmas, made all the better as rivals Villarreal folded against Celta Vigo. They have a five-point advantage over Marcelino’s side with just five games to play.
There was no football last weekend in Spain’s top flight due to the Copa del Rey final, meaning they have had a nine-day break since their last game as they await the visit of United.
There is one big blow for the Basque side, with top goalscorer Oihan Sancet likely to miss at least the first leg (and maybe the second) after he suffered a muscle injury against Las Palmas. Other than that, though, Valverde has a clean, rotated, healthy squad waiting for United in Bilbao.
If the Red Devils can’t meet Athletic Club at their level physically, and not just in duels but in being first to the second ball, they could spend much of the second leg at Old Trafford trying to chase a game they let slip away in Bilbao.
How Do Amorim’s Wing-Backs Handle the Williams Brothers?
Ruben Amorim is steadfast about his 3-4-3 system, with two wing-backs pushed high and wide, pulling defenders around, stretching the field horizontally. Since he took over at Old Trafford in November, his tactical setup has been a point of fascination and frustration.
The system works, or at least, it very much did at Sporting CP. If it didn’t, he wouldn’t be at Old Trafford. The problem is that while the system is there, the squad is not. Amorim, who by all accounts initially wanted to wait until this summer to take over before taking over from Erik ten Hag, has been forced into a high-wire act with players not built for the balance the system demands.
Against Athletic Club, their high and wide wing-backs will be tested to the limit. Nico and Iñaki Williams offer a one-two punch on the left and right like few other tandems in football. Nico Williams was one of last summer’s biggest transfer obsessions, and there will likely be another transfer saga this summer. Only Lamine Yamal (253) and Vinícius Júnior (182) have attempted more dribbles across Europe’s top leagues this season than him (178). Iñaki, on the other hand, is a different and no less dangerous threat. He has received 122 long passes this season, which is fourth among all players in La Liga, providing an excellent outlet for expansive distribution on the right side.
The question for Amorim is brutally simple. Does he risk pushing his wing-backs high and wide to stretch Athletic’s full-backs, opening gaps for someone like Rasmus Højlund to exploit against Dani Vivian and Yeray Álvarez? It could work, but it’s a gamble that could end in tears for the English side.
By pushing the wing-backs high up the field, you’re disconnecting them from play. Chasing the Williams brothers is hard enough without giving them a 20-yard head start. Amorim has been welded to this system for better or worse. But if ever there was a matchup to force a cold, hard reconsideration, this might just be it.
Can United Cope With Maroan Sannadi?
Last season, the breakout star for Athletic Club was Gorka Guruzeta, a late-developer who seemingly materialised from thin air to score 14 goals and add five assists. He was even likened to Karim Benzema, a clever operator who drifted off the front line, combined with teammates, and made everyone around him look better, even if he was rarely the star of the show himself.
This season, the revelation is Maroan Sannadi. And he’s nothing like Guruzeta.
The 24-year-old was playing in Alavés’ second team not long ago, before going on loan at Barakaldo, Athletic’s unofficial third team. He didn’t seem the likeliest candidate to make the leap either but 11 goals in 20 games got Valverde’s attention, and by January, Sannadi was part of the Athletic first team.
If Guruzeta is a master lock-picker, Sannadi is a battering ram. A 6-foot-4 wrecking ball who touches the ball in the opposition box nearly seven times per game, which is far more than Guruzeta’s 4.3. In fact, 26% of the passes he receives are long balls, double Guruzeta’s rate.
When he gets moving, it’s not always pretty. He’s fourth among all La Liga strikers with at least 400 minutes played this season in the average distance he carries the ball upfield (8.6 metres), but his carries are chaotic, his touches are loose, and predictability is completely out of the question.
And that’s exactly the point.
It’s within this chaos that United need to stay disciplined and not get drawn in. Sannadi can drag a team out of shape in a hurry and Athletic are designed to pick up the pieces.
If United insist on keeping their wing-backs high, it could force the left and right centre-back to cover the Williams’ brothers in transition. Should Harry Maguire, for example, find himself isolated and chasing Sannadi into those open spaces, it could set up the perfect platform for an Athletic victory in the first leg.
What Is the Path to Progress?
Out of possession, Athletic Club play in a 4-4-2. They are living in that liminal space of chasing Real Madrid and Barcelona while also trying to put some distance between themselves and the rest of La Liga. They have to know how to play a couple of different styles and sometimes within the same 90 minutes. They will have no problem sitting back and waiting for United to force something, and likewise, can be lethal when they do jump to press.
Another question for Amorim is how he tries to break down Valverde’s mid-block setup. Athletic Club are so attuned to know when to press and when to sit back, which is something United will also be aware of, that once they do step up and apply pressure, the traps they set are some of the most effective around.
Only Barcelona (317) have recorded more high turnovers (winning the ball within 40m of the opposition’s goal line) than Athletic this season in the Spanish top flight (271). From a 4-4-2 base, they have variety in their press. Sometimes Iñaki and Nico will jump up to make a front three if the opposition try to build wide. Sometimes the front two simply smother the double pivot, suffocating any hope of central progression and forcing the opposition long. With United forward Joshua Zirkzee out injured, this isn’t a particularly good idea for United.
The biggest question here is what happens to Bruno Fernandes?
The Portuguese midfielder is Manchester United’s best player by a mile. Will Athletic mark him for special attention from Mikel Jauregizar or Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta? Or will Beñat Prados be brought in to do a job on one of the most creative players in European football? He’ll theoretically be the ‘extra man’ in midfield for United but Athletic can’t let him become a source of creativity through the centre.
If they do choose to be more proactive, Sannadi will put the shivers up United’s primary ball-carriers while Prados or Ruiz de Galarreta steps up to shut off the centre of the field. The main point of Athletic Club’s mid-block is to set traps. Enter this mid-block and you will be dispossessed. And Athletic are dangerous on the counter.
Fernandes will naturally want to drop deeper to escape the pressure and find the ball. Amorim, on the other hand, will likely need him to stay higher, to offer an option through the block. It’s a tactical tug-of-war and a risk United have to win because once the suffocation starts, it’s almost impossible to come out of it unscathed.
Are United Ready for the Different Faces of Athletic?
The final question ahead of the first tie is just how aggressive Athletic Bilbao will be, and are United ready for all eventualities? Will the hosts try and swarm their opponents to make the most out of home advantage, or be more pragmatic and look to counter after winning the ball in deeper areas, knowing it’s a long, two-legged tie?
Recent games have shown us very clearly the different approaches. Against Real Madrid at the Bernabéu, Athletic kept it tight. They sat deep, played it safe, and almost walked out with a point, undone only by a late Fede Valverde strike. At home against Las Palmas a few days later, the handbrake came off with Athletic hunting the ball, punishing mistakes while beating the relegation-threatened side 1-0 with a heavily rotated side.
The shape of the first leg will be clear as soon as Valverde’s lineup is announced. His choices at the base of midfield and in attacking midfield will give us a good idea of what approach they are going to take.
In an ideal world, Valverde would have picked Ruiz de Galarreta and Jauregizar as the double pivot, with Sancet ahead of them in a setup that balances security on the ball with enough bite to attack United’s soft spots out of possession. But with Sancet out, that changes everything.
If Prados starts instead of one of the double pivot regulars, expect a more attritional game. Prados brings energy, coverage, and a harder edge but much less attacking spark. Valverde might lean towards caution, knowing they have to manage the scoreboard over 180 minutes, not just 90.
But there’s no getting around it, this is one of the biggest ties in Athletic Club’s history.
They’re living through one of the sweetest periods the club has ever had, arguably since the last time they played, and beat, United in this competition under Marcelo Bielsa in 2011-12.
A first Copa del Rey title since the 1980s last year, a real shot at returning to the Champions League for the first time in over a decade this season, and they’re now on the doorstep of a European final in their own stadium.
San Mamés and the entire city of Bilbao will be raging. Athletic know exactly what’s at stake.
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