Arsenal are predicted to defeat Paris Saint-Germain in this mouth-watering UEFA Champions League semi-final first-leg contest. Look ahead to Tuesday’s game at the Emirates Stadium with our Arsenal v PSG prediction and preview.
Arsenal vs PSG Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer rates Arsenal as favourites with a 44.8% win probability to PSG’s 29.4%. Arsenal have never lost to PSG in European competition, having faced them five times previously. PSG have lost five of their past six away games against English sides in the Champions League.Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain face off in the first leg of an eagerly anticipated Champions League semi-final with the weight of history on the shoulders of both sides.
The teams gear up to go head-to-head at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday, knowing they are on the cusp of the showpiece fixture in Munich next month and the chance for both clubs to finally win Europe’s premier competition for the first time.
Mikel Arteta’s charges will be desperate to make the most of home advantage against an opponent they have never lost to in European competition in five previous encounters.
And their form in the Champions League is especially strong at the moment. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last eight games in the competition, winning seven and drawing one. That represents their second-longest run without defeat in a single edition after they went 12 unbeaten in 2005-06 (W8, D4), which is when they made their one and only final appearance in the competition.
The Gunners have been ahead on the scoreboard for 53% of their total match time in the Champions League this season, which represents the highest percentage of any team.
Moreover, only Inter (1%) have been behind for a lower percentage of their game time than the Gunners (6%), who did not trail at any point in their knockout-stage games against PSV and Real Madrid.
It is not exactly a ground-breaking admission to state that Bukayo Saka will be hugely important to Arsenal’s chances. The England star has nine goals and six assists from 16 appearances for Arsenal in the Champions League, representing the most from an English player in their first two seasons in the competition and the most by a winger in the first two since Sadio Mané (16 across 2017-18 and 2018-19).
PSG travel to north London having lost five of their last six away matches against English teams in the Champions League (W1), losing against four different opponents in this run (Manchester City x2, Arsenal, Newcastle, and Aston Villa). They did, though, win at Liverpool in the last 16 back in March.
The French club head into this game having failed to win two Ligue 1 games in the past week. Following a midweek 1-1 draw at Nantes, they suffered a surprise 3-1 home defeat to Nice on Friday evening. That was their first league loss in 2024-25, but having won the league three weeks ago, their attentions have now understandably been diverted to the Champions League.
Ousmane Dembélé will look to be one of the dangermen for Luis Enrique’s side. The France ace has been directly involved in 10 goals in the competition this season (7 goals, 3 assists) and could equal the record for most goal involvements by a PSG player in a single edition, currently held by Kylian Mbappé (11 in 2020-21 – 8G, 3A).
Part of their success this season has hinged on the speed and directness of their forward options, with four PSG players having averaged two-plus completed dribbles per 90 minutes in this season’s edition (Désiré Doué 3.1, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 2.7, Bradley Barcola 2.6, and Dembélé 2.2).
That represents the most for a single team (of players with 300+ mins played). Meanwhile, their total of 190 completed dribbles is the most by any team in a single edition of the competition since Barcelona in 2014-15 (238), who were also managed by Luis Enrique.
And in one of the more quirkier facts, this will be just the third Champions League semi-final tie to see two Spanish managers go head-to-head. Carles Rexach (Barcelona) versus Vicente del Bosque (Real Madrid) in 2001-02 and Pep Guardiola (Bayern Munich) versus Luis Enrique (Barcelona) in 2014-15 were the previous two occasions this occurred.
Arsenal will be without the suspended Thomas Partey for this clash, but Mikel Merino and Ben White should both be available after sitting out the 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace in the Premier League last week. Riccardo Calafiori could return to the squad but Jorginho has joined a lengthy list of absentees that includes Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Magalhães, and Kai Havertz. PSG, conversely, have no absentees and are expected to be at full strength.
Arsenal vs PSG Head-to-Head
This mouth-watering contest will represent the sixth meeting between Arsenal and PSG, with the Gunners unbeaten in the previous five (W2, D3).
Indeed, Arsenal are the opponent the Ligue 1 giants have faced the most times in European competition without ever winning (5).
Arsenal have, of course, beaten PSG already in the Champions League this season, securing a 2-0 win at the Emirates in the league phase back in October.
Only one English club has ever beaten PSG twice in a single edition of the competition, with Manchester City doing so in the 2020-21 semi-finals (2-1 away, 2-0 at home).
Arsenal vs PSG Prediction
Arsenal have a strong history against PSG in Europe and the Opta supercomputer ranks the Gunners as favourites here, with Arteta’s side coming out on top in 44.8% of the 10,000 simulations conducted.
Luis Enrique’s men, by contrast, have a 29.4% chance of taking a first-leg lead back to Paris, with the draw occurring on 25.8% of occasions.
In terms of winning the competition overall, Arsenal are now actually considered favourites with the supercomputer to win the trophy for the first time, retaining a 28% chance of doing so.
PSG are also looking for their first triumph in Europe’s premier competition and are ranked as a 24% probability, making them third-favourites behind Inter (25.5%).
Arsenal vs PSG Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday in north London, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Arsenal vs PSG Prediction Opta Analyst.
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