INGLEWOOD, Calif. — Plug a math equation into a calculator, and it’ll produce one definitive answer.
Russell Westbrook threw Nikola Jokic an entry pass on Thursday. He caught it between the right elbow and the block, with mostly empty spacing on his side of the court. Westbrook had delivered it from the left side. Denver’s three-time MVP center wielded the ball with his back to the basket — one of the most comfortable operating setups of any NBA offense today.
But one peripheral glance over his right shoulder, and the supercomputer that is Jokic’s brain made a stubborn calculation. Kawhi Leonard was matched up on him. Clippers center Ivica Zubac was lurking close behind Leonard, in the middle of the lane. And remarkably, a third defender was standing in the paint as well, shadowing over from the weak-side corner.
Jokic immediately hurled the ball right back where it came from, into Westbrook’s wide-open and waiting arms. He cashed in an open 3-pointer.
The calculator had performed its function unerringly and unemotionally.
This is the Nuggets’ existential crisis. The Clippers are punching the numbers in and getting what they want out of them. Nobody even bothered to close out on Westbrook’s shot. They responded with a collective shrug, as they did when Westbrook buried his go-ahead 3 late in Game 1.
“I’m just trying to play the game how I know to play the game,” Jokic said after Denver’s 117-83 Game 3 loss, when asked if he should try to be more aggressive as a scorer.
“Maybe I should be. Maybe I shouldn’t. But I think as long as we are having an open look, we need to be satisfied. Sometimes you miss. Sometimes you make. But I think we just need to get open looks.”
Three games into a first-round playoff series that Denver precariously trails, Jokic has attempted 0.43 shots per minute played — down from 0.53 in the regular season. Westbrook is attempting 0.5 field goals per minute, up from his regular-season rate of 0.39. The Nuggets’ reliance on him might be the most blatant evidence of their opponent’s game plan, but it’s not only about him.
It’s about redirecting the ball out of Jokic’s hands at all costs. Jokic is happy to oblige because he is endearingly and frustratingly programmed to make the right read.
“He is being aggressive,” Jamal Murray said. “He’s getting triple-teamed, though. So we’ve gotta do a better job of moving and shooting and cutting. It can’t just all be, ‘Go make a play, big fella.'”
Denver Nuggets guard Christian Braun, center, tries to shoot as Los Angeles Clippers guard Norman Powell, left, and forward Nicolas Batum defend during the second half in Game 3 of an NBA basketball first-round playoff series Thursday, April 24, 2025, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)Scoring in the post for Jokic right now is like trying to dissect an active beehive without getting stung. Even when it looks like the Clippers are staying home to let Zubac defend him straight up, they’ve shown they’re willing to send a blind-side trap the instant Jokic puts the ball on the floor. Whether out of shrewd anticipation or plain paranoia, Jokic has appeared more passive about backing down Zubac as a result.
His shots have decreased game by game, from 24 to 16 to 14 in Game 3. He’s always efficient. But high volume doesn’t make him any less so.
He shot 50% from the floor or better in 11 of the 13 games in which he attempted 25 shots this season.
“They’re long. They’ve got a lot of defenders. They’re in the right places,” Aaron Gordon said of the Clippers. “They’re making it tough on Joker. They tilt in. .. They’re taking away the dunker and making him skip (pass) it. We need to be ready to shoot when Joker passes it out.”
This series is revealing a roster imbalance. The Clippers possess a surplus of positive-value defenders. The Nuggets are facing a shortage of positive-value spacers. Los Angeles isn’t afraid to help off of Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Jalen Pickett or Westbrook. That’s the entire back half of David Adelman’s rotation. If any two of them are on the floor at the same time, Jokic is especially vulnerable to being triple-teamed. When Westbrook takes the open shot, he’s just doing as he’s told.
The Nuggets scored 20 points in the first five minutes of Game 3, followed by 53 points in the last 43 minutes. The Clippers entered this series with the second-ranked defense in the Western Conference, and they’ve managed to both thwart Denver in the halfcourt and prevent transition opportunities.
“We got embarrassed today,” Adelman said after the 34-point loss, blaming any schematic shortcomings on himself. “It happens in the playoffs. I’ve been a part of it before. I’ve been a part of the other side of it. The bottom line is, it’s one game.”
Players echoed that sentiment. Murray expressed an on-brand bloodlust for the adversity: “It’s OK to kind of have your backs against the wall,” he said. “This is what it’s all about. So I’m excited for Game 4 because it’s going to put us in a challenge, and I’m always up for a challenge.”
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“Play more like fighter basketball,” he urged. “We cannot back down. We need to attack.”
That mindset might have to apply to himself as a scorer, even when he’s doubled and tripled.
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