We look ahead to Sunday’s UEFA Women’s Champions League game at Groupama Stadium with our Lyon vs Arsenal prediction and preview. Can the Gunners complete a comeback?
Lyon vs Arsenal Stats: The Key Insights
Home team Lyon are the favourites to win the match according to the Opta supercomputer, with a win probability of 54.2%. Lyon have won five of their last six UEFA Women’s Champions League matches against Arsenal (L1), including a 2-1 victory in the first leg of this tie. Arsenal have failed to win any of their last four knockout away matches in the Champions League (D1 L3), failing to score in all three of those defeatsThe UEFA Women’s Champions League semi-final first-legs served up some incredible goals and drama. And the task for both English sides is simple – they will have to forge comebacks if they are to reach the final.
While Chelsea were beaten 4-1 by holders Barcelona, the task facing Arsenal, at least in terms of overturning a deficit, is not quite as daunting.
The Gunners lost 2-1 at home to eight-time champions Lyon. Arsenal had their chances at the Emirates Stadium but were unable to make them count, and were duly punished by their opponents.
Arsenal finished with 11 attempts, getting four of those on target, though the only one that found the net was Mariona Caldentey’s 78th-minute penalty. That spot-kick restored parity, cancelling out Kadidiatou Diani’s early opener, but Melchie Dumornay was on hand to give Lyon the edge heading into their home leg.
And the Gunners go into this one without history on their side. Arsenal are aiming to reach their second Women’s Champions League final, after 2006-07 when they became, and remain, the only English side to win the competition.
Arsenal have been eliminated from each of their four semi-final ties since then, however, and from six of seven ties overall (2002-03, 2004-05, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2022-23).
They have won just one of their 10 Champions League matches against French opponents (D2 L7), losing six of their last seven. So, Renée Slegers and her team will be looking to buck a trend that is well established.
But what are the chances of a comeback, we hear you say?
Well, Arsenal have never qualified from such a position (from two previous examples), while Lyon have been eliminated from just two of their 27 previous ties when winning the first leg away from home.
However, three of the last five teams to lose the first leg of a knockout tie at home (as with Arsenal vs Lyon in this tie) have ended up progressing to the next round.
Heartbreaking too, for Arsenal fans, is that they could be potentially knocked out by their former boss, Joe Montemurro.
Montemurro led Arsenal to two major trophies, winning the Women’s Super League title in 2018-19, a year after his Gunners team clinched the League Cup. He also led them to two Women’s FA Cup finals, two League Cup finals and a second-place finish in the WSL.
Lyon have proved a brutally efficient force under Montemurro this term, as he has stepped up to fill the void left by Sonia Bompastor, who departed for Chelsea.
They have scored 27 goals in the Women’s Champions League this term, finding the net in each of their nine matches. Only Barcelona (40) have scored more goals. Indeed, only Barça (25.6) have registered a higher xG than Lyon (25.3) in the competition, too.
So, Arsenal have to find a way to keep them at bay, especially in the early stages, as Lyon have tended to make fast starts. They have scored 10 first-half goals in their nine games; only Barça (19) and Chelsea (15) have scored more in the Champions League this season.
Danger will come from all areas of the pitch, but Arsenal should be particularly vigilant of Diani. With 10 goal involvements (six goals, four assists), she has the joint-most in the competition this season, along with Barça’s Clàudia Pina (nine goals, one assist).
Diani (83) has had the second-most touches in the opposition box in the Champions League this term, behind only Real Madrid’s Linda Caicedo (84), and ahead of teammate Dumornay (78), who also hit the bar as well as scoring the winner in the first leg.
But Arsenal have threats of their own.
In Alessia Russo and Caldentey (both six), Arsenal have two of the Champions League’s leading scorers this season. Both Russo and Caldentey, who starred in the Gunners’ win over Real Madrid in the last 16, will need to make their mark on this match if Arsenal are to turn this tie in their favour.
A former Champions League winner with Barcelona, Caldentey was victorious against Lyon just last season to win the trophy. Not just a goal threat, she has also proved a creative hub for Arsenal, with her 18 chances created the most of any Gunners player in the Champions League this season.
Arsenal have come back from bigger deficits this season, and overturned a first-leg loss to overcome Madrid. While making a habit of having to come from behind is not something Slegers will want to see, she will be confident her team are still in with a chance with only one goal in it.
Lyon vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Arsenal have won just one of their seven Champions League matches against Lyon (D1 L5), and against no side have the Gunners suffered as many defeats to in the competition than Les Fenottes.
The Gunners may take solace in the fact that they have beaten Lyon on the road once before, back in the 2022-23 season. Caitlin Ford and Beth Mead both scored doubles and Frida Maanum also netted in a hugely impressive 5-1 victory.
Arsenal will break a long-held Lyon record in this match; they will become the first team in the tournament’s history to play 14 matches in a single campaign.
Lyon, meanwhile, have progressed from each of their last 11 semi-final ties, while Arsenal have been eliminated from each of their last four.
Lyon vs Arsenal Prediction
Lyon will be aiming to finish the job and reach the final of the Women’s Champions League for the 12th time. The Opta supercomputer is expecting Lyon to do just that, as well.
Lyon came out on top in 54.2% inside 90 minutes of the model’s data-led sims, while Arsenal are handed just a 22.3% chance of getting the victory, and even that might not be enough to send them through, as of course they would have to win by two clear goals to progress on aggregate.
The chance of a draw that would also see Lyon advance is 23.5%.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 2,000 domestic women’s football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Lyon vs Arsenal Prediction: Women’s Champions League Semi-Final Preview Opta Analyst.
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