Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff opted out of the London peace talks Wednesday with Ukraine, the United Kingdom, France and Germany.
They are taking their ball and going back to Washington. Rubio’s decision was triggered when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the Trump administration’s proposal to recognize Crimea as Russian territory in violation of international law.
But it was not just Zelensky. European Union High Representative Kaja Kallas also said Europe will never recognize the Russian-occupied Crimea peninsula as legally Russian.
Team Trump is making good on its petulant threat to “walk away from efforts to broker a Russia-Ukraine peace deal unless there are clear signs of progress.”
The situation in Ukraine remains critical and the future uncertain, thanks to Team Trump’s U.S.-first approach to the ceasefire. Walking away permanently is not an option. It would create the same risk of starting World War III as the White House has accused Ukraine of creating.
As we cautioned last week, Trump won't force Russia to stop attacking; rather, he is trying to leverage Ukraine and its European supporters to give up on resisting.
Monday’s attack on Odesa should be proof enough. Russian President Vladimir Putin resorted to his familiar tactic of striking civilian targets. At least three civilians were injured in a massive attack that struck a “residential building in a densely populated urban area, civilian infrastructure and an educational facility.”
On Monday Putin acknowledged authorizing strikes on civilian targets in Sumy on Palm Sunday, which killed 35, two of whom were children, and wounded more than 120.
Without providing any proof, he proclaimed that the site was being used by the Ukrainian military, stating “Strikes on civilian objects are carried out if they are used by the Kyiv military.” He added, “These are the people we consider criminals who should receive a well-deserved retribution for what they have done in the border region ... They got this retribution. This was done precisely to punish them.”
Despite his dubious gesture to engage in direct negotiations with Ukraine and offer to halt his full-scale invasion of Ukraine along the current front line, Putin’s actions answer Rubio’s question from April 4 as to whether or not “Russia is serious about peace.” It is not, of course.
The latest concessions offered to Russia for a ceasefire being forced upon Ukraine for approval were: “Washington recognizing Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and barring Ukraine from NATO.” Two red-line issues for Zelensky.
Ukraine’s deputy prime minister Yulia Svyrydenko said that Ukraine is ready to negotiate with the U.S., but is “not willing to surrender,” which is basically what the Trump administration’s seven-point plan calls for.
According to The Telegraph, the plan provided no clear security guarantees for Ukraine and provided formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea by the U.S. Furthermore, it implied de facto recognition of the other four partially occupied territories — Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
It also mandated that Ukraine abandon its pursuit of NATO membership and requires the transfer of control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to the U.S. Ukraine would also have to sign the minerals deal allowing U.S. companies access to the country’s natural resources.
The final point raises the alarming possibility of a new relationship between the U.S. and Russia, saying that “all U.S. sanctions would be lifted, and the two countries could begin to co-operate on energy.” The same Russia Team Trump is warning Europe to up its GDP defense spending to defend against.
Team Trump has practically given Putin everything it has demanded short of the keys to Kyiv – though the conditions are certainly set for that to happen in the next five to ten years. As Witkoff stated last week, “a possibility to reshape the Russian-U.S. relationship through some very compelling commercial opportunities that I think give real stability to the region too. Partnerships create stability.”
What does Ukraine get in return? It can join the European Union, regain “unhindered access to the mouth of the Dnipro river,” and have Russian troops withdraw from a second area of the Kherson province. European countries could deploy an assurance force to deter Putin from invading again. But such deterrence seems unlikely without U.S. support.
This plan does not hold Russia accountable. It ignores war crimes prosecutions, restitution for damages, the return of prisoners of war and kidnapped children.
This is a losing hand. Ukraine would be the bill payer, as would security for Europe’s NATO members, virtually ensuring an arms race in preparation for what many believe would be a Russian assault on NATO.
Strategically, surrendering Crimea back to Russian authority not only cedes control of the entire Black Sea region back to Russia but potentially allows Russia to shut down the Port of Odesa for commercial trade, further threatening their security. As retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges has stated repeatedly over for three years, Crimea is decisive terrain. Why would the U.S. or NATO ever provide Russia that advantage?
The Danish Defense Intelligence Service believes Russia could be ready to wage a “large-scale war” in Europe within five years.
According to a jointly produced assessment by the Federal Intelligence Service and the Bundeswehr, German security officials believe the Kremlin “is laying the groundwork for a potential large-scale conventional war with NATO by the end of the decade.”
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has warned that “Russia could be ready to attack Europe by the end of the decade if Ukraine is forced to surrender.”
It does not matter if the Trump administration “is tired of the war,” as retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg stated last weekend. What has become inconvenient for the U.S. is a matter of survival for Ukraine — and security for NATO’s European members.
No one is more tired of the war than Ukraine — its Soldiers, citizens and leaders. Yet they continue to fight because they simply refuse to be subjugated again by Russia. The cost to the U.S. has been measured in dollars, in Ukraine the cost is measured in lives.
As we recently urged, Trump needs to adopt a new approach to Russia. Rubio, Witkoff, and Kellogg are pursuing a ceasefire under unrealistic terms. Until U.S. negotiators address Ukraine’s requirements — Team Trump’s peace process is dead on arrival.
Tragically, however, as evinced by Trump’s Truth Social post blaming Zelensky, he is instead doubling down.
Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy.
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