A small number of voters in select areas will determine the outcome of next week’s local elections, according to both Labour and Conservative strategists. And both parties want to stop Reform UK in its tracks.
The upcoming election will be the first large-scale test of Nigel Farage’s poll numbers.
Most of the council seats up for election next week were last contested in May 2021 when the then-Tory government was enjoying a boost in the polls following the Covid-19 vaccine rollout, and now more than half of the council seats up for grabs are currently held by the Conservatives. Those results were unusual for any sitting government, which usually faces a mid-term kicking. Throughout England, 23 local authorities will go to the polls, with mayors also up for election in six regions.
Voters across the country repeatedly raise the same concerns: there is lingering resentment toward the Conservatives and dissatisfaction with Labour’s giveaways and tax increases; and the decline of the high street and job insecurity are feeding public discontent in a Britain that feels broken. No wonder Reform is polling well.
With Reform’s supporters more culturally than economically right wing, the party is also benefiting from US imports such as the Doge waste-cutting chainsaw and a backlash against woke ideology. And its pick ‘n’ mix approach to populist economic policies, including supporting the nationalisation of British Steel, means a pincer movement from both right and left.
All of which has translated into a sense – which Reform is naturally not keen to dispel – that its rise is unstoppable, like a Pac-Man munching through both Labour and Tory support. A poll commissioned by Daniel Friderichs, formerly a senior adviser to Farage’s GB News show, put the party’s support at 30 per cent. Another survey from the More in Common pollsters predicted Reform could be the largest party at a general election based on current polling numbers.
If interpreted simply, eventually the turquoise Pac-Man should chew through a string of seats in Labour heartlands.
But perhaps we should all take a deep breath before we accept that Farage will be picking out new curtains in Downing Street after the next general election.
Since their national breakthrough last July, Reform hasn’t actually been performing particularly well at local level.
“There is no doubt that Reform have been the success story in the polls since the general election,” Joe Twyman, director of Deltapoll, told The i Paper. “But at the same time, there’s a lot of ambitious extrapolation going on among people who either don’t know better, or people who do know better, but it’s in their interests to talk up the strength of Reform.”Twyman said that while there is a lot of “excitement” about Reform’s national performance – and that it is “good for clickbait to say Reform could snatch the Red Wall from Labour” – the electoral reality is more complicated.
“The key question for which we do not yet know the answer is how effectively a strong performance in national polls today will translate into actual performance at the ballot box in the local elections next week or the general election in a few years’ time,” Twyman said.
“The crucial thing about all polling (including MRP surveys) is that they cannot take account of local factors. Local issues, local candidates and local party machines all play their part in elections, particularly local elections, and that is not picked up in polls.
“While it is interesting Reform are neck-and-neck with Labour in the national polls, I also think it’s interesting that there have been 235 by-elections for council seats since the general election and the Liberal Democrats have won 20 per cent of those by elections, which is noticeably above their national polling. By contrast, Reform have only won six per cent of the council seats since the election.”
That’s not to say Labour and the Tories aren’t concerned. Sir Keir Starmer made a point of targeting Farage’s party in a campaign visit on Tuesday. “People talk about Reform, but what have Reform actually got to offer the country beyond moaning about everything? They’ve got no answers,” the Prime Minister said.
Labour MPs are being encouraged to make multiple campaign visits and make calls via the party’s Persuasion Pathways technology, which targets undecided voters.
Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch has spent the past few months preparing her Tories for a likely wipeout at the locals: expectation management on steroids.
square ANDREW FISHER
To stop Farage, both Badenoch and Starmer need to go
Read More“These elections are going to be very difficult for the Conservatives,” Badenoch told the BBC on Tuesday. “Two-thirds of the seats four years ago we won – there’s no way we are going to be able to do that again.” Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper said Badenoch has “already thrown in the towel”.
But inside the Tory campaign it’s a slightly more nuanced picture, with strategists eyeing small margins on both turnout and percentage change in the vote which could see the Tories avoid a total meltdown, especially since they’ve also performed well in council by-elections since July 2024.
“Since last year’s general election, we have won 61 council by-election seats and gained 23 seats – which is more gains than all other opposition parties put together. Reform have won just 14 council by-elections since the general election,” Tory Party Chairman Nigel Huddlestone told The i Paper.
“The electorate recognise that Conservative councils deliver lower taxes and better services than other parties and our candidates are often well-known local champions, embedded in their local communities.”
“I think Badenoch’s making all the right noises,” according to Andrew Hawkins, chief executive of pollsters Whitestone Insight. “At the moment, I think it’s more to do with tone, and it’s about making people feel that they’re on their side. The big question is, though, whether people believe what she says given the party’s track record in government, which is just simply going to take time to resolve.”
Reform hopes to give the Tories and Labour a walloping next week. But with just over a week to go, it’s not as clear cut as the headline polling figures would have you believe.
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