The scramble for primary school places is set to worsen in the coming years due to school closures accelerated by falling pupil numbers, school leaders have warned.
The exodus of young families priced out by rising housing and childcare costs has left schools in some areas sitting empty. Schools rely on funding based on pupil numbers and face budget cuts or mergers with other sites to continue to provide education.
According to research by the Education Policy Institute, London and the North East of England are expected to see the largest decline in primary school pupil numbers over the next five years. For secondary schools, Yorkshire and the Humber are at risk.
However, data released by councils on primary school offer day on Wednesday showed that fewer children in the capital have secured a place at their first choice of primary school despite the drop in demand for places.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the school leaders’ union (NAHT), told The i Paper that school closures could become more of a nationwide problem as primary school pupil numbers decline.
Phoebe Oakley, a teacher at Highbury Quadrant Primary School in North London, fears the school could be developed into flats due to a lack of investment and falling pupil numbers.
In October 2024, the school had just 161 pupils from Reception to Year Six, which is significantly lower than the capacity of the school at 360 places, equating to a 55 per cent vacancy rate.
Figures from London Councils revealed that 87.9 per cent of pupils received an offer from their first-choice primary school on Wednesday, down from 89.1 per cent last year.
This week, Hackney Council is expected to finalise plans to close or merge six primary schools after four closed permanently last summer.
Two more schools in Islington face closure, and another school in Lambeth.
Highbury Quadrant Primary School protesting to save the schoolOverall, the number of applications for places at primary schools in the capital fell by 2.1 per cent compared to last year, to 83,581 pupils.
Teachers have warned that this trend is set to worsen, with places spread between a smaller number of schools becoming increasingly oversubscribed.
Schools are funded on a per-pupil basis, meaning a falling birth rate means less money for day-to-day running costs, staffing and other vital resources.
Islington Council has earmarked Highbury Quadrant Primary School for closure, but Ms Oakley warned that reactively decreasing capacity now could lead to problems in the future.
She added: “When you close down a school, you’re not just closing down a site, you’re closing down a public resource. With our school, it has to stay as an educational site for two years, and then the council can redesignate the planning.
“After those two years, they can knock our school down and build houses.”
She added: “If there is a population boom in 10 years, it’s much harder to rebuild a school than it is to improve on one that already exists and has a thriving community.”
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For former school premises to be used for purposes other than educational, consent from the Education Secretary is needed.
According to the latest Department for Education (DfE) figures, 48.4 per cent of the school’s children receive free school meals, which is double the national average of 24.6 per cent.
“Schools that are closing tend to have a higher proportion of disadvantaged children,” Ms Oakley said.
She cited St Jude and St Paul’s Church of England Primary School in Islington, which has also been earmarked for closure. The school has 51.1 per cent of pupils on free school meals.
In London, pupil numbers are expected to decrease by eight per cent from 659,953 in 2023-24 to 607,326 in 2028-29, according to analysis of DfE data by TES magazine.
TES found that the North East could become another pressure point, with a steady decline in pupil numbers from 360,801 today to 348,023 in 2028-29 – a 3.7 per cent decrease.
However, Mr Whiteman warned that this risked becoming an “increasing problem” across England.
Asked where school closures have had an impact, he said: “The falling birth rate in London is more acute than elsewhere, and London schools are under more pressure. That said, I think it’s something that’s going to be an increasing problem.
“Primary schools remain predominantly the centre of their communities, so it’s more than just an economic decision about the number of children in a school at any one time.
“A decision to close the school should be considered in that context, along with the propensity for birth rates to improve again in the future.”
The analysis carried out by London Councils forecast a decrease of 3.6 per cent in reception pupil numbers in London over the next four years, translating to 3,195 places – roughly equivalent to a drop of 117 reception classes.
A DfE spokesperson said: “Parents should be reassured that last year almost 99 per cent of children were accepted to one of their top three choices – but through our Plan for Change this government is determined to make sure every child, wherever they live, can achieve and thrive in school.
“Councils are legally responsible for ensuring there are enough school places for their local communities and should work in collaboration with academy trusts and other local partners to balance the supply and demand of school places, in line with changing demographics.
“Through the landmark Children’s Wellbeing and School’s Bill, we will require councils and schools to work together on admissions to make sure every family has access to a good local school.”
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