Real Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction ...Middle East

Arsenal have one foot in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals after their 3-0 first-leg win over Real Madrid. Will they complete the job on Wednesday? We look ahead to the game with our Real Madrid vs Arsenal prediction and preview.

Real Madrid vs Arsenal Stats: The Key Insights

There have been 47 instances of a team taking a lead of at least three goals into the second leg of a UEFA Champions League knockout tie, and only four of those teams have been eliminated.

So, the omens are good for Arsenal as they travel to the Santiago Bernabéu to face Real Madrid, hoping to reach their first Champions League semi-final since 2009.

Los Blancos have become famed for their European fightbacks, pulling off a great escape to beat Bayern Munich en route to winning their 15th continental crown last year, having done likewise against Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea and Manchester City in 2021-22.

But after two sensational Declan Rice free-kicks helped Arsenal to a 3-0 victory in the first leg at the Emirates Stadium last week, Carlo Ancelotti’s men need their best comeback yet.

Across the 53 previous games that Madrid have played against English sides in the European Cup/Champions League, they have only managed to win by more than three goals on two occasions.

They beat Derby County 5-1 in the round of 16 in 1975-76 and Tottenham Hotspur 4-0 in the 2010-11 quarter-finals. That victory over Derby represents the only time Madrid have ever overturned a three-goal deficit after the first leg of a European Cup/Champions League tie.

After losing 4-1 at the Baseball Ground, Madrid surged into the quarter-finals with a memorable home win. Having gone 3-0 down, Derby edged back into an aggregate lead though Charlie George’s goal, but a late penalty from Pirri sent the tie to extra time, where Santillana got the winner.

But Madrid have tried and failed to overturn a 3-0 first-leg deficit in Europe’s premier club competition on three other occasions. 

And since the European Cup became the Champions League in 1992, only Deportivo La Coruña (vs AC Milan in 2003-04), Barcelona (vs PSG 2016-17), Roma (vs Barcelona in 2017-18) and Liverpool (vs Barcelona in 2018-19) have overturned a 3+ goal first-leg deficit to win a knockout tie.

Real Madrid vs Arsenal

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If reports from Spain are to be believed, Ancelotti’s job is in serious danger and only a similar fightback will be enough to give him a chance of leading Madrid next season.

But as Jude Bellingham declared after full-time last Tuesday:  “If there’s one place where crazy things happen, it’s our house.”

This will be the 16th time since the start of 2015-16 that Madrid have played the second leg of a Champions League knockout tie at home, and they have only been eliminated once in the previous 15, going out to Ajax in the last 16 in 2018-19.

However, Arsenal’s first-leg victory was the 12th time an English side had won by three or more goals in the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie, with the previous 11 all successfully advancing.

Mikel Arteta’s side have a tremendous defensive record going in their favour, only conceding 0.55 goals per game in the Champions League this season. Only in 2005-06, when they reached the final, have they conceded fewer (0.31).

But it could be that attack is the best form of defence for the Gunners, as their 2.55 goals per game in the Champions League is also their second-best figure in a single edition (after 2.63 in 2005-06).

In the first leg, Arsenal were too dynamic for their opponents, with Bukayo Saka running at David Alaba time and again while Rice single-handedly won the midfield battle.

Despite having more possession with a 53.4% share, Arsenal made 115 high-intensity pressures in the final third last Tuesday. That was more than three times as many as Madrid managed, with their tally of 36 representing the fewest of any team involved in this season’s quarter-final first legs.

Madrid will also be without one of their most physical players after Eduardo Camavinga was shown a second yellow card and sent off for kicking the ball away in stoppage time at the Emirates. The Frenchman will be missed, with Camavinga’s incredible tackle success rate of 80.8% (21/25) the best of any player to attempt at least 20 tackles in the Champions League this season.

Just missing out on the top 10 for tackle success rate is Camavinga’s team-mate Bellingham (72%, 18/25). Bellingham also has three goals and three assists in the Champions League this campaign, with Florian Wirtz and Michael Olise (seven each) the only midfielders with more total goal involvements.

If Madrid are to make things nervy for Arsenal, Bellingham will surely have a major role to play. The same can be said of Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé.

Vinícius was scarcely involved in the first leg, but he is one Champions League goal involvement from reaching his half-century (currently 49 – 28 goals, 21 assists). 

He could become the fourth Real Madrid player to bring up that figure, after Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema and Raúl, which would be at least twice as many as any other club.

And fellow attacker Mbappé, who was sent off for a horror challenge on Deportivo Alaves’ Antonio Blanco on Sunday, has been involved in eight goals in eight knockout-stage games against English teams in the Champions League (seven goals, one assist).

That figure includes five in four games at the Bernabéu (four goals, one assist), among them a hat-trick in February’s play-off victory over Manchester City.

Real Madrid vs Arsenal Head-to-Head

All the Gunners need to do is limit Madrid to a margin of victory not exceeding two goals. 

And Arsenal have a fantastic record against the Spanish giants, remaining unbeaten against them in three meetings (two wins, one draw) and not conceding a single goal.

They could become the first team to ever keep four consecutive clean sheets against Madrid in the European Cup/Champions League, heaving beaten them 1-0 on aggregate in the last 16 of the 2005-06 edition, via a Thierry Henry goal at the Bernabéu.

Real Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction

Arsenal fans might not be breathing easily yet, but the Opta supercomputer is firmly on their side when it comes to the overall winner of the tie.

The Gunners reach the Champions League semi-finals in 92% of tournament simulations, with Real Madrid only doing so in 8%.

That is despite Madrid being assigned a 54.8% chance of victory in Wednesday’s match inside 90 minutes, with Arsenal winning in 21.6% of simulations and 23.6% being drawn.

Arsenal’s commanding first-leg victory makes them second-favourites to lift the trophy overall, doing so in 24.5% of the supercomputer’s tournament predictions.

Only Barcelona (28.2%) were given a greater chance of success ahead of the first set of second-leg fixtures taking place on Tuesday.

Real Madrid vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday night in Spain, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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Real Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction Opta Analyst.

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