Aston Villa vs PSG Prediction ...Middle East

We look ahead to Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League quarter-final second leg with our Aston Villa vs PSG prediction and preview. Will Unai Emery’s side be able to overturn a two-goal deficit against one of Europe’s elite sides?

Aston Villa vs PSG Stats: The Key Insights

Aston Villa will have to defy the odds if they are to keep their Champions League dream alive, needing to score at least twice against a dominant Paris Saint-Germain side in order to have any chance of progression.

Unai Emery will have a job on his hands if he is to inspire belief in his Villa squad, who conceded a crushing third goal late on in the first leg in Paris. A wonderful injury-time finish from Nuno Mendes makes PSG clear favourites to advance.

If the task wasn’t hard enough already, Villa will also have to face a PSG side who, thanks to some friendly scheduling back home, did not play over the weekend and will instead have had almost a full week to rest, recuperate and prepare for the second leg.

Villa on the other hand played away from home in the Premier League on Saturday, albeit against an already-relegated Southampton who were comfortably beaten.

The level of Villa’s opponents at the weekend did also mean they were afforded the opportunity to rest some of their star performers, but not Morgan Rogers or Youri Tielemans, two players who are seemingly impervious to fatigue.

Both will need to be at the heart of any potential comeback from the home side, and their capability to force such a scenario cannot be doubted.

Rogers has been directly involved in six goals for Villa in the Champions League this season, with four goals and two assists, including the opening goal in the first leg at the Parc des Princes. Only two English players aged under 23 have ever had more goal involvements in a single edition of the competition: Jude Bellingham (9) and Bukayo Saka (8), both during the 2023-24 campaign.

Tielemans, meanwhile, leads all Aston Villa players in the Champions League this season for passes completed (534) and line-breaking passes (104), as well as possession recoveries (45) and tackles (19).

The genuine quality in Villa’s midfield makes this such an interesting battle tactically when considering the star power also on show in PSG’s centre in the form of João Neves, Fabián Ruiz and Vitinha.

Neves, who is still only 20 years old, is having a Champions League campaign to remember. He has applied more high-intensity pressures than any other midfielder in the competition this season (651), while his 42 tackles are the most by a midfielder in a single edition of the Champions League since Casemiro for Real Madrid in 2017-18 (45).

That energy permeates throughout the entire PSG side too, not just in midfield, with their frontline proving themselves to be as industrious as they are flashy.

In seasons past you would often see the attacking trio of Kylian Mbappé, Lionel Messi and Neymar strolling around out of possession, but their current forwards do not allow their opponents a chance to settle.

Indeed, the Parisians have averaged 11.2 high turnovers per game in the Champions League this season, their most in a single edition on record. They’ve also recorded 36 shot-ending high turnovers in 2024-25, which is more than they had in the previous three editions combined (28).

PSG are very much a star team, rather than a team of stars, with each player providing important contributions. They have four different players who’ve been directly involved in five or more goals in the Champions League this season, in Ousmane Dembélé (9), Achraf Hakimi (6), Bradley Barcola (6) and Désiré Doué (5). They’ve never had more players do so in a single edition.

PSG do have a history of letting commanding leads like the one they have in this fixture slip through their fingers, though. This is the eighth time that they have led by two or more goals heading into the second leg of a Champions League tie, and they been eliminated three times from such a position; four times would be a competition record.

One of those instances was coined La Remontada (the comeback), with PSG losing 6-5 on aggregate against Barcelona in 2016-17 despite having won the first leg 4-0. The two managers in that tie? Emery for PSG, and Luis Enrique for Barcelona.

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Aston Villa vs PSG Head-to-Head

Aston Villa have lost each of their last three games against French sides, with each defeat coming within the past year against Lille, Monaco and PSG.

PSG have only won four of their 17 away games against English teams. One of those victories did come in the most recent one, defeating Liverpool in March, ending a run of four straight defeats in such fixtures.

Aston Villa vs PSG Prediction

Villa will no doubt receive a boost from their rapturous home contingent, but this comeback can be considered unlikely at best.

They came out on top in just 31.5% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations on the night. A PSG win is deemed the most likely outcome, with a 43.6% likelihood, while the draw sits at 24.9%.

Luis Enrique’s men secure passage to the semi-finals – where they will face either Arsenal or Real Madrid – in 91.5% of sims, while Villa execute an amazing turnaround in the other 8.5%.

Aston Villa vs PSG Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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Aston Villa vs PSG Prediction Opta Analyst.

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