SEBASTIAN, Fla. — Was Florida whispering? Was Wisconsin shouting?
Suddenly these two questions, rooted in states that Donald Trump carried only five months ago, are at the forefront of American political discussion and calculation.
As Trump presses forward with tariffs like a 21st-century incarnation of Reed Smoot and Willis Hawley, and as Elon Musk continues marching though the federal bureaucracy like William Tecumseh Sherman in his Civil War rampage through the South to the sea, the political license the two men took for granted now looks far more fragile.
The tentativeness in public support for broad tariffs, and the growing suspicion of DOGE cost-cutting initiatives, manifested in three early April elections that, in ordinary times, might have seemed like the no-see-ums that are active during dawn and dusk in this state at this time of the year: hardly noticeable. Not since 1969 has a special congressional election represented a substantial rebuff to a sitting president.
But in recent days, political scientists have come to realize what entomologists have known for decades:
Biting midges, as no-see-ums are sometimes called, can sting. Now, Team Trump is reaching for the political equivalents of hydrocortisone cream or calamine lotion to soothe the pain of two congressional races they won and one state Supreme Court race they lost.
The two victories in special Florida elections merely returned Republicans to House seats they won in November. But the Wisconsin Supreme Court contest confirmed a 4-3 liberal majority in an election that Musk, who poured $20 million into the race even as he undermined his own credibility, suggested might “decide the future of America and Western Civilization.”
The results in Florida sent GOP state Sen. Randy Fine into the House seat vacated when Michael Waltz became Trump’s national security adviser, and Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s chief financial officer, into the opening created when Matt Gaetz resigned his House seat, only to have his nomination as Trump’s attorney general withdrawn following allegations of drug use and sexual misconduct. Both new lawmakers’ margins of victory were half as large as their predecessors’.
The twin congressional special elections, conducted in Florida’s midcoast and western panhandle, raised serious questions about the popularity of the administration’s early policies and GOP prospects in next year’s midterm congressional elections.
The results suggest the possibility of significant seepage in the 2026 contests, when Trump will not be on the ballot. The Democrats gained 41 seats in the 2018 midterms, when Trump was in the White House but wasn’t running himself. Those results returned the Democrats to control of the House, a result they hope to repeat next year.
In the coastal Florida district, located between St. Augustine and Daytona Beach, a third of the registered voters receive Social Security benefits; Democrats, who have profited from fears about the stability of the income supplement for older Americans since the 1982 midterms, have revived the issue as Musk has sent his DOGE warriors into the Social Security Administration.
Spencer Goidel, an Auburn University political scientist, said the Democrats had succeeded in overperforming in deeply conservative districts, primarily by appealing to the college-educated voters who once were reliable elements of the Republican political coalition but who, in recent years, have migrated to the Democratic Party.
“Democrats have a long way to go, but they should feel better about the world right now,” said Thomas A. Devine, a Democratic political strategist. “These races tell us people are upset about what is happening in Washington — and they tell us that Americans are worried about these disbursements of money that threaten democratic government and our institutions. People are repulsed by it.”
Both parties poured enormous amounts of money into the three campaigns.
Total spending in the Wisconsin court race may hit $100 million, making it the costliest judicial race in history.
Democrats raised 10 times as much money as the GOP candidate in a losing cause in the coastal Florida race. Musk gave $1 million checks to two Wisconsin voters, offered those signing petitions and providing their contact information $100 each; and presented voters with $20 if they were photographed holding a picture of Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel, a former Republican attorney general who ran as a Trump surrogate but was defeated by Dane County Judge Susan Crawford, a former chief counsel to a Democratic governor.
Republicans sought to minimize the damage in the three elections. “Any reprieve from the hangmen, no matter how brief, is always welcome, and that’s what the Democrats have,” Alex Castellanos, a GOP strategist who had close ties to establishment Republicans such as George W. Bush and Mitt Romney, said in an interview. “They still don’t have any idea how to govern, they don’t have a vision, they don’t have leaders, they don’t have protagonists for the movie much less a script. The leader of the Democrats is Donald Trump, because all the Democrats are today is a brake pedal on his car. Cars need brake pedals, but that doesn’t mean they trust them to take them where they need to go.”
Even with the optimism that the Democrats feel after the Tuesday results, the party remains convulsed in debate about its path forward and worried about its future.
Just before the balloting began in Florida and Wisconsin, Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, speaking on “Real Time With Bill Maher,” characterized the Democratic Party’s brand as “toxic,” saying, “This is an existential moment, and our unity against Trump is not increasing our trust, it’s not helping the Democratic brand.”
Castellanos is correct in arguing that the Democrats are virtually leaderless, with the party’s standard being held high principally by Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who caucuses with the Democrats but describes himself as a democratic socialist, and by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. Sanders has an 85% score in the most recent Americans for Democratic Action ratings, considered a measure of political liberalism, and Ocasio-Cortez scored 100%.
And while Ocasio-Cortez minimizes the friction between left-leaning Democrats like herself and more moderate party members, that is the axis on which the debate revolves. The Democratic candidates who performed well Tuesday were moderates. But it was Sanders, who twice ran for president, who brought his “Fighting Oligarchy” campaign to the Florida district that was the political base of Gov. Ron DeSantis.
David M. Shribman is the former executive editor of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
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