Can Newcastle United complete a first league double over Manchester United since the 1930s? We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at St. James’ Park with our Newcastle vs Man Utd prediction and preview.
Newcastle vs Man Utd Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer makes Newcastle the 55.5% favourites to win this match. The Magpies have won four of their last five games against Manchester United. All of Newcastle’s previous eight victories over the Red Devils were accompanied by a clean sheet.Having won 2-0 at Old Trafford in December, Newcastle United are looking to complete their first league double over Manchester United since the 1930-31 campaign. If not as important as the famous trophy drought they recently ended, the Magpies will rarely have a better chance to put another long-standing record to bed.
Manchester United have lost their previous two away Premier League games against Newcastle, last losing three consecutive league visits to St. James’ Park between 1969 and 1970. They also have a poor record against the top sides in the division this season.
The Red Devils have won none of their eight league matches against teams who start Matchday 32 in the top five. Their 2-1 derby win at Manchester City, secured with two goals from the 88th minute onwards, is their sole victory against any club in the top seven.
Ruben Amorim’s men also come into this match on the back of a 2-2 draw at Lyon in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, denied what would have been a morale-boosting win by a stoppage-time equaliser from Rayan Cherki. With nothing beyond pride at stake in the league, it’s reasonable to assume the manager will not take chances with any doubtful players for this match.
Injuries have been a theme of Man Utd’s campaign. Kobbie Mainoo returned to make a late cameo against Lyon, but six players remain out. The likes of Matthijs de Ligt, Amad Diallo and Lisandro Martínez are all being missed at present.
Newcastle may be able to welcome back Anthony Gordon for this match, likely as a substitute at best. Harvey Barnes has deputised well, though, with a goal contribution in each of his last three Premier League games (with one goal and two assists in total). Players who won’t be featuring here include Sven Botman and Lewis Hall, half of Eddie Howe’s first-choice back four.
Even without those key men, Newcastle can be reasonably confident of keeping a clean sheet. Only Leicester City (14) and Everton (13) have failed to score in more Premier League games than Manchester United (12) this season; not since 1989-90 (16) have the Red Devils drawn a blank on more occasions.
Another shutout would be a very positive omen for the hosts, who have recorded their previous eight wins against Manchester United in all competitions to nil. Their last victory when conceding was over 20 years ago, with the 4-3 victory in September 2001 partly remembered for a late Roy Keane red card.
One of Newcastle’s key players in this match could be Jacob Murphy, who has already assisted Alexander Isak seven times in the Premier League this season. Since 2009-10, there have only been two instances of a player setting up a specific teammate on more occasions in a single season: Harry Kane for Son Heung-min in 2020-21 (nine) before Kevin De Bruyne set Erling Haaland up for eight goals in 2022-23.
Murphy – who scored twice in Newcastle’s 3-0 win at Leicester on Monday – has been directly involved in 19 goals in 33 appearances across all competitions this season, scoring eight and assisting 11. He is looking to reach 20 for a Premier League club for the first time in his career.
As incisive as the Magpies’ winger has been, few players can match the creative feats of Man Utd captain Bruno Fernandes, who will likely be integral to any hopes the visitors have here. The Portuguese midfielder has created 75 chances in the Premier League in 2024-25, more than any other player, and making this the fifth season in which he’s hit that benchmark. Since 2003-04, De Bruyne is the only player to have had more campaigns in which they teed up 75+ chances (seven).
Newcastle have won 11 of their previous 15 league games. Victory here would make them the fourth team to do the Premier League double over Manchester United this season, the most different sides to do so in a single top-flight campaign since 1957-58.
The Magpies have also won five of their six home games against clubs starting the weekend in the bottom half of the Premier League table. With Amorim carrying the third-worst points-per-game average for a United manager with at least 20 matches in the top division, another loss for his side would not be a surprise.
A win for Newcastle, meanwhile, would be a big boost for their hopes of qualifying for the UEFA Champions League. They sit fifth with a game in hand on teams around them heading into MD 32, which was confirmed this week will be enough after England secured an extra spot in Europe’s premier club competition.
Newcastle vs Man Utd Head-to-Head
While this head-to-head once strongly favoured Manchester United, the balance of power in the relationship has swung towards the north east in recent times.
Newcastle have won four of their last five meetings with Manchester United in all competitions (losing once), as many as they had in their previous 41 encounters (with nine draws and 28 losses).
At St. James’ Park specifically, the Magpies have lost only one of the last five meetings, 4-1 in December 2020, with three victories in that spell.
Newcastle won the reverse fixture at Old Trafford in their last game of 2024 in late December, securing a 2-0 victory thanks to first-half goals from Isak and Joelinton.
Newcastle vs Man Utd Prediction
Newcastle are strong favourites to win this match, with 55.5% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations ending in a victory for the home side.
The prediction suggests Manchester United have roughly as much chance of three points as one, as the draw occurred in 22.3% of the sims and the away win 22.2%.
Newcastle vs Man Utd Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Newcastle vs Man Utd Prediction Opta Analyst.
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