Liverpool have stuttered in the last month and last week’s defeat at Fulham was just their second in the Premier League under Arne Slot. Will they get back to winning ways on Sunday? We look ahead with our Liverpool vs West Ham prediction and preview.
Liverpool vs West Ham Stats: The Key Insights
Liverpool are heavy favourites for victory against West Ham, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 69.1% win probability. Liverpool have already beaten West Ham 5-1 in the EFL Cup and 5-0 in the Premier League this season. No English top-flight team has ever scored 5+ goals against another three times in the same campaign before. Mohamed Salah has not scored or assisted a goal in any of his last four games for Liverpool in all competitions, his longest run without a goal involvement for the club since March 2021 (also four).Arne Slot’s first season at Liverpool looks destined to end with a Premier League winners’ medal, but the Dutchman cannot be pleased with how things have gone lately.
A penalty shoot-out defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League was a reality check, but their EFL Cup final loss to Newcastle United was a real low point.
And after weeks of talk that Trent Alexander-Arnold will leave his boyhood club for Real Madrid, they also suffered just their second league defeat under Slot last week, going down 3-2 to Fulham at Craven Cottage.
This week, the Reds welcome West Ham to Anfield, with Slot desperate to prevent their triumphant campaign ending on a flat note.
Liverpool head into the weekend buoyed by the news that the influential Mohamed Salah has signed a new contract with the club to keep him at Anfield beyond the end of this season.
Much of Liverpool’s success in 2024-25 can be attributed to the individual brilliance of Salah, and it is perhaps no surprise to see their downturn coincide with a poor run from the Egyptian.
Salah has surely got the Premier League’s player of the season award in the bag, having registered 44 goal involvements in 2024-25 (27 goals and 17 assists) – the joint-most by any player in a 38-game campaign, with Thierry Henry in 2002-03 and Erling Haaland in 2022-23.
And with seven games remaining, it appears almost certain he will surpass the single-season record of 47, held jointly by Andy Cole (for Newcastle United in 1993-94) and Alan Shearer (Blackburn Rovers in 1994-95).
But since matching the 38-game mark with two penalties in a 3-1 win over Southampton on 8 March, Salah has not scored or assisted in four matches in all competitions.
It is his longest run without a goal involvement for the club since March 2021 (also four). Only in March 2019 has he gone five appearances without a goal or assist for the Reds.
Salah’s underlying metrics have also given Liverpool cause for concern lately. He has averaged 1.39 shots, 0.46 shots on target and 0.25 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes in Liverpool’s last four matches, having previously managed 3.62 shots, 1.81 shots on target and 0.72 xG per game this season.
And it’s not as if Salah has been providing for his teammates, either, only averaging 0.93 chances created and 0.09 expected assists (xA) in his last four games, having previously this term averaged 2.2 chances created and 0.25 xA.
The absence of Alexander-Arnold, who, like Joe Gomez, is unlikely to return for several more weeks, might have harmed Salah. Curtis Jones started at right-back for Liverpool last week before moving into midfield, but he only completed three passes to the Egyptian.
Conor Bradley bettered that figure in just 23 minutes off the bench (four) and could be in line for a start here.
If Salah continues to misfire, Liverpool will hope Luis Díaz can step up. Díaz has scored (once) or assisted (three times) in each of his last four Premier League appearances, with those four goal involvements matching his figure from his previous 17 outings.
West Ham, meanwhile, were pegged back in a 2-2 draw with Bournemouth at the London Stadium last week.
Manager Graham Potter was backed to bring a more positive style than those implemented by predecessors David Moyes and Julen Lopetegui, but he has not been able to so far.
West Ham have averaged a marginally higher possession share in their 12 league games under Potter (48.9%) than they did in 22 under Lopetegui (46.4%), but they have done precious little with that extra time on the ball.
Potter’s West Ham are averaging fewer goals per Premier League game (1 to 1.18), xG (0.94 to 1.39), shots (9.5 to 14.5) and shots on target (2.67 to 4.27) than Lopetegui’s Hammers did.
And in away games, only Everton (11), Southampton (12) and Leicester City (14) have scored fewer goals than the Hammers’ 15 in the Premier League this season.
While injuries to Michail Antonio and Crysencio Summerville have limited Potter’s attacking options, other players need to step up.
Mohammed Kudus was recalled last week but is currently enduring his longest Premier League goal drought (13 matches), while Brighton loanee Evan Ferguson has gone 14 games in the competition without netting, with six of them coming for West Ham.
It could be down to Jarrod Bowen to spark them into action, and he has a strong record against Liverpool. He has been directly involved in six of West Ham’s last seven goals against Liverpool in all competitions (three goals, three assists).
And since the start of last season, no player has more goals (three, level with Alexander Isak) or goal involvements (four, level with Isak and Dominic Solanke) against the Reds than Bowen.
Liverpool vs West Ham Head-to-Head
The Hammers have not had much joy at Anfield recently, winning just one of their last 57 trips there in all competitions. Liverpool have won 42 those matches (14 draws), including the last nine in a row.
In addition, since doing the double over Liverpool in 2015-16, West Ham have only won one of their last 17 Premier League matches against the Reds (three draws, 13 defeats) – a 3-2 triumph at home in November 2021.
Liverpool have already beaten West Ham 5-1 in the EFL Cup and 5-0 in the Premier League this season, and a piece of history is within their grasp on Sunday.
No English top-flight team has ever scored five or more goals against another on three occasions within the same campaign.
Liverpool vs West Ham Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Liverpool huge favourites for this one, with a 69.1% win probability.
Across our 10,000 pre-match simulations, West Ham only triumphed in 13.8% of scenarios, with 17.1% finishing level.
The supercomputer now assigns Liverpool a 99.0% chance of winning the title, with Arsenal only given a 1.0% chance of overturning the Reds’ 11-point lead at the summit.
West Ham’s most likely final position is 16th (28.4%), but Wolves’ strong run of form does mean they are given a 19.5% chance of slipping to 17th.
Liverpool vs West Ham Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Liverpool vs West Ham Prediction Opta Analyst.
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