The last time Florida won a national championship on the hardwood, it was a repeat title. Oddsmakers don’t expect the Gators to run it back again next season.
Florida beat Houston 65-63 Monday night to win this year’s NCAA Tournament and capture the program’s third national title. Veteran guards Walter Clayton Jr. and Will Richard played a massive role in the March Madness run, and Florida will have to replace them next season. Alijah Martin departs, too. Alex Condon will have a draft decision to make.
Todd Golden’s group could look much different next season. As such, the Gators are +2500 to win the 2026 national championship at DraftKings.
Duke, which lost to Houston in the Final Four and will have to replace Cooper Flagg, is the outright favorite to win the championship. Houston, UConn, Purdue, and BYU round out the top-5 contenders at DraftKings.
2025-26 National Championship odds
TeamOddsDuke+1000Houston+1100UConn+1400Purdue+1600BYU+1800St. John’s+1800Arkansas+2000Kentucky+2000Kansas+2000Louisville+2200Auburn+2500Alabama+2500Michigan+2500Florida+2500Texas Tech+2800Odds via DraftKings
Purdue, Louisville, and Michigan should all be top-5 teams in next year’s preseason AP Poll. Now, that doesn’t ultimately mean anything. Kansas was the preseason No. 1 this past year and left the NCAA Tournament in the first round. But I do think it’s interesting to project the preseason AP Poll and compare that to the board at DraftKings right now.
Duke is the “favorite” because Duke is Duke. That’s the best I can reason. If the Blue Devils couldn’t win a national title with Cooper Flagg and a perfect cast of role players around the future No. 1 overall draft pick, they aren’t going to win a title with a worse roster.
Purdue looks like the safest team among the favorites to actually be a favorite when the tournament rolls around. Braden Smith, the most indispensable player in the country, according to EvanMiya, will be back to lead the team. Fletcher Loyer, career 40% 3-point shooter with 110 career starts, is coming back. Trey Kaufman-Renn, a 20 points-per-game scorer, is coming back. The Boilermakers will get 7-4 center Daniel Jacobsen back after an injury limited him to just 2 appearances last season. And the Boilers added South Dakota State big man Oscar Cluff, the national leader in PER, via the transfer portal.
Matt Painter could very realistically have his best Purdue team yet next winter. Jacobsen’s return would help fix the biggest issue with this year’s team — interior defense. Purdue ranked 332nd in 2-point shot defense and 358th in block rate. A year after Purdue had a top-15 offense and defense (per KenPom), the Boilermaker defense slipped to 53rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Making up the difference in 1 season is a lot to put on Jacobsen’s shoulders, but he’s a 7-4 center and we know what Painter can build with a mountain of a man in the middle of his defense.
Barring a drastic change, the combination of roster continuity and sheer talent at Purdue is unmatched anywhere else in college basketball.
I also love the value on Louisville. Pat Kelsey proved right away to be a shrewd hire for the Cardinals, turning an 8-24 team the year prior into a 27-8 team. This offseason, he brings in a 5-star point guard in Mikel Brown Jr. and the nation’s top-ranked transfer class.
Louisville’s backcourt could be outstanding. Kelsey has secured transfer commitments from former Virginia guard Isaac McKneely, former Xavier guard Ryan Conwell, and former Kennesaw State guard Adrian Wooley. The 6-4 McKneely scored 27 points and drilled 7 triples in his final game for UVA. The 6-4 Conwell had 38 points in the Big East Tournament quarterfinal game against Marquette — a fifth-straight 20-point game for him at that point. The 6-5 Wooley scored 28 points in the CUSA Tournament title game, his seventh game of the season with 25-plus points.
Over a 3-month stretch from December to March, Louisville went 21-1. The defense was excellent as Louisville ripped through the ACC. The Cards have some frontcourt questions to iron out, but they could legitimately have a top-5 offense next season if things break right.
RELATED: Kentucky residents can grab this DraftKings Kentucky promo code to score $150 in bonus bets when they sign up.
I’m also looking to jump on Michigan before Yaxel Lendeborg, the transfer forward from UAB, makes a decision on the NBA Draft. Lendeborg is reportedly seeking assurances of a guaranteed deal with an NBA franchise. In the absence of such a guarantee, he’ll return to the college ranks and play for Michigan.
Lendeborg is a potential first-round talent, so there’s a pretty good chance he never plays for Michigan. But, if he does, Michigan becomes the most talented team in the Big Ten.
Head coach Dusty May landed 2 other starters from the transfer portal as well — North Carolina guard Elliot Cadeau and Illinois forward Morez Johnson Jr. (though keep an eye on a developing situation around Johnson). Roddy Gayle Jr. and Nimari Burnett return. Five-star combo guard Trey McKenney joins from the high school ranks.
May is only a few years removed from taking FAU to the Final Four, and he showed a championship ceiling in Year 1 at Michigan. If Lendeborg pulls out of the NBA Draft and announces he’ll play for Michigan, I imagine the Wolverines will join the favorites at DraftKings.
Way-too-early odds, picks for 2025-26 college basketball champion Saturday Down South.
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