Florida and Houston aren’t just two of the best teams in the country, they’re two of the toughest and most composed. We break down the keys and reveal our model’s prediction.
If the Final Four games are any indication, we’re in for an electric men’s NCAA Tournament national championship game.
It was March Madness in April on Saturday night. Florida came back from an eight-point halftime deficit to knock off Auburn 79-73. Houston came back from a seven-point deficit with 1:14 left in the game to beat Duke 70-67.
Both teams fell behind an elite team in a do-or-die game and didn’t blink.
Florida and Houston aren’t just two of the best teams in the country, they’re two of the toughest and most composed. These top seeds both play with the right amount of controlled urgency and don’t tip into desperation.
The Gators are third in the nation in offensive TRACR, while the Cougars are No. 1 in defensive TRACR – and have played like it throughout the tournament.
With that in mind, if this is a close national title game at the end, it’ll be fascinating to see which team will be able to execute better. All tournament, these teams have relied on being more mature in crunch time than their opponents. But in that area, they may each meet their match in the final.
These are the other factors that could determine who will cut down the nets after Monday night’s war of attrition.
A Big Problem
Walter Clayton Jr. is on one of the biggest heaters in NCAA tournament history.
That may sound like an exaggeration, but Clayton is averaging 24.6 points in the tournament, which is the fifth most by a player who’s played at least five games in the tournament since 1996-97.
You’ll notice that Zach Edey’s run last year leads this list. Houston coach Kelvin Sampson might need to employ a strategy similar to what eventual national champion UConn did last year. The Cougars have to do what they can to make things tough on Clayton, but there is no stopping him.
Auburn is one of the best teams in the country at stopping stars, had already had practice at trying to slow down Clayton and watched helplessly as he torched them in the semifinal.
But teams have beaten Florida this year even when Clayton has had some of his best performances. Clayton had 33 in a loss to Kentucky and 28 in a loss to Missouri. The real swing players for Florida have been the big men.
Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh have been hyper-efficient in Florida’s wins and inefficient in losses. Condon has struggled to get going all tournament, but Haugh’s efficiency has been a big boon for Florida in its last two games.
He tied his career high with 20 points against Texas Tech and hit all three of his shots inside the arc and added 12 points against Auburn. That might not seem like a lot, but Florida’s guards have to work so hard to manufacture offense. Watch the degree of difficulty on Clayton’s shots and you’ll understand why a few possessions a game of Haugh manufacturing an easy look can be of big importance.
If Condon can have his signature tournament moment or Haugh can convert on looks against a defense hyper-focused on the guards, Florida should be able to avoid getting overwhelmed by the electric Houston defense.
If the Cougars can take away any scoring from Florida’s big men, even a monster game from Clayton might not be enough.
Deep Impact
Houston’s enormous comeback got all the attention against Duke for good reason, but it wouldn’t have been possible without Houston outscoring Duke from the 3-point line.
Duke came into the game on fire on 3-pointers and shot an excellent 41.2% on 3s against Houston. But the Cougars held the Blue Devils to just 17 3-point attempts – 9.2 fewer than their season average. Offensively, Houston took 22 3s and hit an even better 45.5% of them.
Florida shoots even more 3s per game than Duke (27.5), but Houston has to try to keep that number down. This may seem counterintuitive to limiting Florida’s big men, but it doesn’t have to be. Houston needs to run Florida’s guards off the line without committing too much help on drives to the basketball and pull-up 2s.
Will Richard and Alijah Martin could beat Houston with tough midrange jumpers and contested layups, but it’s the best of the poisons you have to pick against Florida. Houston has the defensive weapons to force Florida into tough shots. Florida can make those shots, but the Cougars have to live with the outcome instead of overreacting to good shot making.
Offensively, we highlighted how the Cougars have gotten a big 3-point shooting game from one of their trio of guards in each of their tournament wins in our Final Four preview. That didn’t change against Duke as L.J. Cryer hit 6 of 9 3-pointers for 26 points.
Cryer is the leader, but if Florida devotes a lot of defensive capital to stopping him, Houston is more than willing to let Emanuel Sharp or Milos Uzan be the hero. The Cougars have shot more than their season average of 20.6 3s per game in four of five tournament games. It hasn’t been by a lot, but any uptick can be beneficial for a team that led the nation in 3-point percentage.
Florida has to have a similar approach to Houston on 3-point attempts. For the season, the Gators allow fewer 3-point attempts per game than the average team but aren’t among the teams allowing the fewest in the country. The volume of 3s for Houston might be the most important factor in the game.
If Florida holds Houston below 20 3-point attempts, Houston’s offense might not have enough firepower to match Clayton and company. But if Houston gets a high percentage of its looks from behind the arc and one of the team’s guards has another monster shooting night, the game could feel like a lot of Houston’s tournament wins have so far.
The Prediction
These are the most likely determinants in the championship game, but the beauty of a title game is that it’s one moment in time and anything can happen.
These are two teams full of players ready for the big moment. The role players and the stars on both squads have shown serious mettle to make it to this stage, and everyone who is getting significant minutes seems ready for the spotlight.
Hopefully, both teams can bring their A-game and we get another magical March moment that can help us survive the coming months without college basketball.
Our projection model expects that to happen, giving Florida only a slight edge with a 51.8% win probability in San Antonio.
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NCAA Championship Predictions: Which Team Has the Edge in a Strength vs. Strength National Title Game? Opta Analyst.
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