With the help of the AI-powered Opta supercomputer, we provide our UEFA Champions League match predictions for every game across 2024-25.
The Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season as the projection model works to provide you with data-backed predictions for all UEFA Champions League matches and season outcomes.
Real Madrid have won the most European Cup/Champions League titles (15), with nine of those coming in the UCL era since 1992. They’ll be looking to add yet another this season following their 2023-24 success in the final against Borussia Dortmund at Wembley Stadium.
They are one of eight teams remaining in the 2024-25 competition as we head into the quarter-final stage.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Champions League match predictions for 2024-25, and be sure to check back here ahead of every matchday for the latest UCL projections.
Quarter-Final Predictions (Leg 1)
The UEFA Champions League season has reached the quarter-final stage, with eight teams now remaining to battle it out for European glory in 2024-25.
This week sees the first leg matches across the quarter-final ties, with two games on Tuesday and the following two matches played on Wednesday.
One of Tuesday’s matches sees the current second-place teams in both the Premier League and La Liga meet at the Emirates Stadium in London, as Arsenal host European giants Real Madrid.
This will be just the third meeting between Arsenal and Real Madrid in European competition, following their last-16 tie in the UEFA Champions League in 2005-06. Arsenal won 1-0 in the first leg away from home, before drawing 0-0 at Highbury in the second leg (1-0 on aggregate).
Madrid have won 15 titles across European Cup/Champions League history, while Arsenal are yet to win the competition and have only reached the final once in 2006. In fact, across the history of the competition in both guises, the Gunners have played the most matches without ever winning the trophy (207).
Despite that, they are favourites not only to win this first leg at home (41.7%) but also progress to the semi-finals (50.2%) by the Opta supercomputer.
The other game on Tuesday evening sees Serie A leaders Inter Milan travel to Germany to face Bayern Munich, who top the Bundesliga by six points.
Inter have eliminated Bayern in both of their meetings in the knockout stages of the competition: 2-0 in the 2009-10 final and progressing on away goals over two legs in 2010-11 in the last 16 (3-3 on aggregate). In fact, only Real Madrid (7 times) have eliminated Bayern in the knockout stages of the UCL more times than Inter (2).
Bayern have home advantage in the first leg, and this could be key in their chances of progression across this tie. They are unbeaten in their last 22 home matches in the Champions League (W17 D5), with the last visiting side to beat them in the competition being Paris Saint-Germain in April 2021 (3-2 in the quarter-final first leg).
This has aided the Opta supercomputer’s prediction of Bayern as strong favourites for the first leg in Munich, as they won 47.0% of pre-match simulations. However, across the tie, the supercomputer is leaning towards Inter being favourites for a semi-final place. The Italians progressed to the final four in 51.5% of current sims.
Wednesday evening sees the current supercomputer favourites for UCL glory in 2024-25 play, with Barcelona hosting Borussia Dortmund.
Barcelona win the Champions League in 23.1% of simulations, while they are the supercomputer’s most confident pick for a place in the semi-finals (78.2%) as things stand.
Dortmund haven’t had much success from this fixture across history. Barcelona are unbeaten in their five meetings with BVB in European competition (W3 D2), including a victory over them earlier in this season’s Champions League (3-2). Only against Lyon (8), Napoli (6) and Werder Bremen (6) have they played more in Europe without losing.
They don’t enjoy playing against sides led by Hansi Flick, either. Across his spells with Bayern Munich and current club Barcelona, Flick has won all six of his meetings with Borussia Dortmund; his best 100% record against an opponent in this period.
Much of Barcelona’s success in this tie could hinge on the performances of Raphinha. The Brazilian forward has been directly involved in 16 goals in 10 appearances in the Champions League this season (11 goals, five assists); only Lionel Messi in 2011-12 has had a hand in more in a single edition for Barcelona (19 – 14 goals, five assists).
The Opta supercomputer makes Barcelona its most confident pick across the four matches this week, with the La Liga leaders winning 65.7% of pre-match simulations.
PSG aren’t far behind, though. The supercomputer sees the Parisians as heavy favourites for their first leg against Aston Villa on Wednesday.
It will be the first time these two sides have met in a competitive fixture, but while the teams may be unfamiliar with one another, Unai Emery certainly knows the French club well. Emery spent two seasons in charge of PSG, winning them a Ligue 1 title in 2017-28 and six domestic cup honours as well.
Emery has won just two of his 10 games against Luis Enrique as a manager (D1 L7), however, with both wins coming in home fixtures. Indeed, this will be the first time they’ve faced each other since the 2016-17 campaign, when Luis Enrique’s Barcelona came from 4-0 down in the first leg to eliminate Emery’s PSG side in the Champions League last 16 (6-1 win in the second leg).
Villa have never won away to a French opponent in European competition (P5 D2 L3); their most away to teams from one nation without winning. That run includes a 1-0 defeat in Monaco earlier this year.
They’ll hope to end that run in this match at Parc des Princes, but the Opta supercomputer is giving them just a 16.5% chance of doing so. That lack of belief in the visitors taking a positive result back to Villa Park for the second leg sees the supercomputer give the Premier League club only a 28.7% chance of making it to the semi-finals – only Borussia Dortmund (21.8%) have a lower chance ahead of this week’s action.
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UEFA Champions League Match Predictions Opta Analyst.
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