Man Utd vs Man City Prediction ...0

We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at Old Trafford with our Man Utd vs Man City prediction and preview.

Man Utd vs Man City Stats: The Key Insights

It has been a season to forget for both Manchester clubs in 2024-25, though the 196th instalment of this fabled fixture nevertheless is still cause for excitement.

Amad Diallo was Manchester United’s derby day hero at the Etihad Stadium in December, with his 90th minute goal completing a remarkable late turnaround to beat out-of-sorts Manchester City 2-1 in the Premier League.

Pep Guardiola’s side were on course for a much-needed three points after Josko Gvardiol’s first-half header until Amad was fouled inside the box by Matheus Nunes, with United talisman Bruno Fernandes stepping up to convert the resulting spot-kick.

The spoils were seemingly set to be shared, but United then went ahead almost out of nothing. Lisandro Martínez’s long pass over the City defence was reached by Amad, who prodded the ball over the on-rushing Ederson before tucking the ball home, handing Ruben Amorim his first big scalp since taking the reins at Old Trafford.

That result came just 40 days after Amorim had guided former employers Sporting CP to a crushing 4-1 victory over City in the UEFA Champions League. As such, the Red Devils boss is now aiming to become just the third manager to beat Guardiola in three consecutive meetings, after Jürgen Klopp with Liverpool (twice) and Thomas Tuchel with Chelsea in 2020-21.

But United and Amorim have failed to build on that memorable win at the Etihad Stadium.

Their 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest on Tuesday was their 13th league defeat of the season, one short of equalling a club record in the Premier League era (set last term). The result at the City Ground was an even harder pill to swallow as Red Devils academy product Anthony Elanga struck the decisive blow.

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In all competitions this season, only Leicester City (26) have conceded the opening goal in more matches among all Premier League sides than United (23), though their troubles have been at both ends of the pitch as they languish in the bottom half of the standings.

United have scored 37 goals from 405 shots – that 9.1% conversion rate is the third worst in the division after Southampton (7.9%) and West Ham United (8.6%). Their 29% big chance conversion rate is the second worst, better than only bottom-of-the-table Southampton (28%).

But so often a shining light for United this season, Fernandes will be hoping to lead his team to another derby victory while also keeping up his impressive form on home soil.

The Red Devils captain has been involved in 21 goals at Old Trafford for Man Utd this season in all competitions (12 goals, 9 assists). If he assists in this game, it will be the third time he has registered both 10+ goals and 10+ assists in a season at the Theatre of Dreams, having also done so in 2020-21 and 2022-23. That is more than all other players combined since 1992-93: Dwight Yorke in 1998-99 (12G, 10A) and Cristiano Ronaldo in 2006-07 (14G, 11A).

United’s injury issues have eased a little, with Harry Maguire, Mason Mount and Leny Yoro all returning to action after injury against Forest. Altay Bayindir was also in the matchday squad for the 1-0 defeat on Tuesday. Kobbie Mainoo could feature this weekend and Luke Shaw is expected back soon, while Amad, Jonny Evans and Ayden Heaven are continuing their respective rehabilitations.

City, meanwhile, tightened their grip on a top-five place with a comfortable 2-0 win over Leicester City on Wednesday with goals from Jack Grealish – his first Premier League strike since December 2023 – and Omar Marmoush sealing the victory on home soil.

Securing Champions League qualification would be some consolation for an otherwise underwhelming campaign for City, who have averaged 1.9 goals per league game this season – that is their lowest per-game average in a season under Guardiola. They have also conceded 1.33 goals per game, their highest average under the Spaniard.

City have also dropped 16 points from winning positions this season in the league, already their worst total in a season under Guardiola. Their previous worst was 13, set in 2020-21 and 2022-23. Three of those were conceded in the reverse fixture against United, so revenge will be the plan for the visitors.

Should City emerge victorious this Sunday, they will have to do so without top scorer Erling Haaland. The Norwegian, who has been directly involved in nine goals in eight appearances against United for City (6G, 3A), is out for the next few weeks after picking up an ankle injury in last weekend’s FA Cup quarter-final win at Bournemouth.

Marmoush is the man likely to be tasked with leading the line, as he did against Leicester in midweek. He took his tally to five Premier League goals in that game but will be wanting to break his scoring duck away from home against City’s fiercest rivals.

All of Marmoush’s Premier League strikes for Man City have come at the Etihad, the outright most by any player to score 100% of their goals at home in the competition this term.

Manuel Akanji, Nathan Aké and John Stones remain sidelined, while Rodri is still on the recovery trail after rupturing his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) back in September.

It will be interesting to see if Kevin De Bruyne plays a part, with the Belgian announcing on Friday that this will be his final season at City, meaning this will be his last Manchester derby appearance.

Man Utd vs Man City Head-to-Head

Man City have won more Premier League away games against Man Utd than any other side. Five of their nine wins have come under Guardiola, the most of any visiting manager in the competition.

But recently in this fabled fixture, United have shown up and rattled the cage of their rivals. They have not lost any of their last three meetings with City in all competitions (W2 D1), last having a longer run between January 2010 and February 2011 (4).

The Red Devils are also looking to complete their first Premier League double over City since 2019-20, following their victory away from home earlier this season.

But home advantage counts for little in the Manchester derby. The away team have won 10 of the last 18 Premier League meetings between the two sides (D2 L6). Since 2015-16, the only top-flight fixture with more away wins is Crystal Palace versus Liverpool (12).

Man Utd vs Man City Prediction

Though it has been United who have enjoyed recent derby delight, the Opta supercomputer leans towards an away victory at Old Trafford. Man City won 43.8% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.

United hold a 30.7% chance of claiming a league double over their rivals, while a draw occurs in 25.4% of sims.

Man Utd vs Man City Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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Man Utd vs Man City Prediction Opta Analyst.

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