CBA expects RBA on hold this week, with a more dovish tone ...0

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CBA expects RBA on hold this week, with a more dovish tone

Commonwealth Bank of Australia expects the Reserve Bank to keep the official cash rate unchanged at 4.10% in April, with policymakers likely to strike a more dovish tone as they await the March quarter inflation report. While the RBA has maintained a modestly hawkish stance since its February rate cut—signalling a reluctance to ease again so soon—CBA believes softer domestic data and moderating inflation could open the door to a cut in May.

In summary:

    recent run of domestic data has on balance been a little softer than the RBA forecasts implytotality of the data is not sufficiently soft that the cash rate will be cut April 1RBA officials have retained a modestly hawkish narrative since the February cut ... so back-to-back rate cuts seem unlikely as it would signal too large a shift in the Board’s view on the economy in a short space of timeon-hold decision to be accompanied by a more dovish stancewe believe a Q1 25 trimmed mean outcome below the RBA’s 0.7%/qtr forecast means a 25bp rate cut in May is a done deal

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    Earlier:

    Poll shows expectations are for the Reserve Bank of Australia to stay on hold Westpac sees April RBA meeting as ‘dead rubber’, still eyes May rate cutGoldman Sachs moves its RBA rate cut forecast from April to May

    I've only seen one analyst forecast a cut, of 25bp, tomorrow.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia Statement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday, April 1, 2025.

    0330 GMT

    2330 US Eastern time

    Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock's news conference follows an hour later.

    This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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