2025 NCAA Men’s Championships: Texas Expected To Extend Its Lead After Day 2 (Ups/Downs) ...Middle East

By Sophie Kaufman on SwimSwam

2025 Men’s NCAA Swimming and Diving Championships

For those unfamiliar with swimming terminology, the concept of “Ups” and “Downs” is a good way to track which teams performed best during prelims. In prelims at the NCAA Championships swimmers qualify for one of three finals: the top eight finishers make the ‘A’ final (Ups) and places nine through 16 make the ‘B’ final (Downs). In finals, swimmers are locked into their respective final, meaning a swimmer in the ‘B’ final can only place as high as 9th or as low as 16th, even if they swim the fastest or slowest time of the event in any final.

With that in mind, we track “Ups” and “Downs” after each prelims session as a way to follow the team race. 

Team Scores Thru Day 1

Texas took control of one of the most exciting team title races in many seasons on Day 1 and held firm during the first prelims session of the 2025 NCAA Men’s Division I Championships. Let’s break down the numbers and take a look at how.

Ups and Downs

The Longhorns have the most finalists and ‘A’ finalists of any program, pacing with eight finalists tonight, five of whom will swim in an ‘A’ final. That’s two more ‘A’ finalists than California, the next-best program. We can see the midseason addition of Chris Guiliano paying off in real time this morning; without him, the Longhorns would have no ‘A’ finalists in the 50 freestyle and would only have one more ‘A’ finalists than the Golden Bears.

The Hoosiers are the other team expected to join the Longhorns and Golden Bears in the team title race. The verdict on their prelims session is still out as the prelims of 1-meter have not yet finished. However, they did outpace their seeds by +14 this morning, which we explore further below.

Projected Scoring

Texas, Cal, and Indiana all improved from their projected Day 2 scoring, while Florida continues to struggle after a heartbreaking 200 medley relay disqualification to open the meet. When using the psych sheet to evaluate the teams involved in the title race, it’s important to keep in mind that Cal’s seeds where well below where we expect them to finish.

Based on the individual events, the Golden Bears are +17 against the psych sheet this morning. But, how much does that tell us about how their morning went when defending champion Destin Lasco wasn’t seeded to score in the 200 IM?

Let’s look back at the last three years to compare.

So, after an electric 800 freestyle relay where the squad of Jack Alexy, Gabriel Jett, Destin Lasco, and Lucas Henveaux became the first squad to break 6:00, California has the lowest projected individual Day 2 points total and the fewest number of Day 2 ‘A’ finalists it’s had in the last three years.

Arizona State put on a convincing show on Day 2 last year when it won the title. The Golden Bears aren’t too far from their projected scores from last year, but are off pace from 2023 and 2022, years when the team won the title.

This morning does not disqualify them from the team race at all, but the team needs to do more if they are going to catch the Longhorns.

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