Ajax ended last season in disarray, enduring their worst league campaign for decades. Enter Francesco Farioli, the Italian coach who has quickly turned their fortunes around, and they are now closing in on the title thanks to a defence-first approach.
Last season was a nightmare for the Netherlands’ most famous football club.
Ajax, the record Dutch champions, finished fifth in the Eredivisie – their worst finish in the league since 1999-00. Even more damning was their points-per-game average of just 1.65, the club’s lowest in a single Eredivisie season since 1964-65 (based on three points per win).
After such a disastrous campaign, they appointed Francesco Farioli to replace interim coach John van ‘t Schip. That appointment was somewhat unexpected, as Farioli became the club’s first non-Dutch head coach since Danish manager Morten Olsen in 1998.
Though not the most obvious choice, the 35-year-old arrived from Ligue 1 side Nice, who he had established as the French league’s most defensively solid team. Nice conceded a league-low 29 goals last season and kept the most clean sheets (17).
Ajax hoped Farioli could instil similar defensive discipline to lay the foundations for a return to the Eredivisie summit, but understood it could take time. Ahead of this season, the target was to regain their status as a top-three side and secure a preliminary spot in next season’s UEFA Champions League. So far, he’s exceeded those expectations.
There have already been plenty of twists and turns at the top of the Eredivisie table this term. PSV started in dominant fashion, winning 14 of their first 15 matches and dropping points only in a draw with Ajax. At that stage, Ajax trailed by nine points, but the Amsterdam club have the opportunity to flip that around this weekend.
Since mid-December, Ajax have won 31 points from 11 Eredivisie matches thanks to 10 wins from their 11 games (one draw). Their points tally is eight more than any other side (Go Ahead Eagles – 23) and more crucially, nearly double what PSV have secured (16 in 11 games).
Now, with just eight matches remaining, Ajax sit six points clear at the top of the Eredivisie. But how has Farioli led a resurgence of a side that were in a complete mess not too long ago?
Upon arriving at the club, Farioli quickly identified an issue: Ajax’s squad lacked fitness. The problem was exacerbated by an early start to competitive action, with their Europa League qualifying campaign beginning on 25 July against Serbian side Vojvodina.
This meant that the Ajax squad needed to get into as good shape as possible early on, while minimising the number of injuries without a long pre-season behind them.
To manage this, Farioli prioritised rotation. Across all competitions, he has used 39 different players, including 37 in the Eredivisie. That tally has already equalled an all-time Eredivisie record by a single club.
The Italian coach initially drew plenty of criticism in the Dutch press about his rotation policy, but it’s remarkable how quickly the noise can fade once the positive results come.
Amazingly, Ajax are yet to play consecutive Eredivisie games with the same starting XI under Farioli, while they’ve also made the most lineup changes to their starting XI overall (92), and by some distance (Feyenoord the next most with 71).
What’s most impressive about the job that Farioli has done at Ajax so far is that their resurgence isn’t linked to recruitment. The young coach has had to turn the club around with largely the same squad as his predecessors had to work with. Only two of the 13 players with 1,000 or more minutes in the Eredivisie this season were not under contract at Ajax in 2023-24 – Davy Klaassen and Bertrand Traoré – both of whom were brought in on free transfers.
Youri Baas has been one of Ajax’s most consistent performers under Farioli, and that has come as a surprise to many. Originally a left-back, the Italian has deployed him as the left of a central defensive trio since his appointment, swapping him with Jorrel Hato, who moved to left-back and has also performed well.
Despite doubts over the positional switch, Baas has emerged as a key figure. He has played more league minutes than any other Ajax player this season (1,980), already surpassing his total from last season’s loan spell at NEC Nijmegen (1,716), where he was unable to hold down a regular starting berth and even played as a left-winger at times.
Baas’ breakthrough is a fine example of Farioli’s ability to make the most of what he’s got. His performances even earned him a maiden call-up to the Dutch national team for this month’s UEFA Nations League fixtures against Spain.
Kenneth Taylor is another player whose career has been rejuvenated under Farioli. Now 22 years old, Taylor joined Ajax’s renowned youth academy at the age of eight, and he is in his third season as a regular first-team starter.
Farioli has helped Taylor mature as a player. The young Dutchman is already enjoying his best goalscoring return in a single season (13) and has provided more goal involvements in the Eredivisie than any other Ajax player in 2024-25 so far (13 – eight goals, five assists).
Like Baas, Taylor was called up to the latest Dutch national team squad and his substitute appearance in the second leg versus Spain on 23 May ended a two-year spell without a national team appearance.
It’s not only Farioli’s rotation policy that’s drawn criticism in the Netherlands this season. Ajax knew what they were getting when appointing the Italian: a defence-first coach. It’s an approach that gave Farioli reasonable success in France with Nice last season.
Ajax’s footballing identity is rooted in the ‘Total Football’ philosophy pioneered by Rinus Michels in the 1970s. While the club has struggled for European success in recent years, there remains an expectation that Ajax teams should be high-scoring and entertaining.
However, this Ajax squad lacks the attacking quality of previous iterations, even compared to Erik ten Hag’s team from 2018-2022.
Farioli has acknowledged this limitation and built a game plan around defensive structure and control. Ajax don’t give away a lot of high-quality chances and only attempt shots themselves when they are in a good position to score.
Eight teams have attempted more non-penalty shots than them this season, but while they aren’t a shot-heavy side, the quality of their shots is the highest in the division. The average xG of their non-penalty shots is 0.13, and they have converted 14.5% of those shots – only PSV have a higher shot conversion rate from non-penalty attempts this season (15.3%).
At the other end of the pitch, opponents struggle to create chances of great quality against them. The average xG of their non-penalty shots faced is just 0.09, the fourth best in the competition, and teams have converted a lower proportion of their non-penalty shots against Ajax than against anyone else in the division (7.6%).
As the legendary Alex Ferguson once said, “Attack wins you games, defence wins you titles.” You can certainly apply this logic to Ajax this season on current form.
At the current rate, Ajax could end up being the lowest-scoring Eredivisie champions in 11 years (2.12 goals per game), since they won it in 2013-14 while scoring 2.03 goals per game. Their tally of 55 goals this season is much, much lower than PSV’s total of 78, but Ajax’s defensive strength could prove the difference. With 20 goals conceded – the fewest in the league so far in 2024-25 – they are unrecognisable from last season’s side who shipped 61 goals – the second-worst tally in club history.
The 2-2 draw against AZ before the international break was an anomaly – it saw them concede as many goals as in their previous 10 Eredivisie matches combined. Frustratingly for Ajax, AZ’s two goals came from just 0.75 xG and it was the 11th successive league game that the Dutch giants had allowed their opponents less than 1.0 xG overall. That’s the longest such run in the Eredivisie since PSV managed it in 12 successive matches between August and November 2016.
This defensive resilience is particularly notable given that Farioli’s Ajax side are less focused on keeping the ball than previous iterations of the team.
Ajax have averaged just 57.6% possession this season in the Eredivisie, their lowest in a league campaign since 2015-16 (55.2%) with every season in between surpassing the 60% mark.
Despite not having the ball as frequently as they have under former coaches, Farioli’s Ajax work hard without adopting an aggressive press. On average they allow opponents 12.1 open-play passes before engaging with a defensive action (PPDA), which is the fifth lowest in the Eredivisie this season, but their joint-highest figure over the last 10 seasons.
One player who has played a role in the organisation of Ajax’s defensive structure is 34-year-old Jordan Henderson, with the former Liverpool man sitting in defensive midfield.
Thanks to his experience and unquestionable leadership qualities on the pitch, Henderson has been one of the key factors in Ajax’s success so far this season. Among Ajax players with 1,000+ minutes, he ranks first for possession recoveries (5.7 per 90) and leads the team in successful passes in the opposition half (39.7 per 90, 9.4 more than any other player).
Ajax are still unbeaten when Henderson has started a league game this season (W11 D4 L0) and he has been handed a surprise recall to the England national team in Thomas Tuchel’s first squad for the games against Albania and Latvia this month, playing his first minutes for England since November 2023.
When Ajax do keep possession of the ball, Farioli urges his team to be patient, instructing his side to play short passes to lure the opposition forward out of their shape.
Ajax’s caution in possession is highlighted by their 86.8% passing accuracy in the Eredivisie this season, their highest rate since 2011-12 (87.0%). The slow and intricate style of play, displayed in the viz below, is typically a Farioli signature and one that we saw during his period at Turkish side Fatih Karagümrük.
Despite the critics, Farioli is en route to becoming the youngest manager to ever win the Eredivisie, even if any title success will likely come after his 36th birthday next month. He’d surpass former Ajax boss Aad de Mos who was 36 years, 41 days old when they won the title in 1982-83.
No team has ever relinquished a six-point lead at the top of the Eredivisie this deep into a season, but Ajax’s next game does present a stiff test and could open up the title race. They head to their nearest rivals PSV on Sunday, knowing defeat will reduce that gap to three points.
Current Opta supercomputer projections have Ajax winning the title in 77.9% of the 10,000 season simulations, but Sunday’s result could change all that. Should Ajax win and increase their lead at the top to nine points with seven games to play, the supercomputer gives them a 97.0% chance of title glory. Should they lose, it’ll drop to 67.0%.
Although now at his fourth club as manager, Ajax will become the first where Farioli will surpass the 50-game mark. He’s close to completing his task of bringing glory back to Ajax ahead of schedule, and should he manage that, he might find a long-term home in Amsterdam.
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Rebuilding Ajax: How Francesco Farioli Has Transformed the Dutch Giants Opta Analyst.
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