The National League is loaded with top-end talent going into the upcoming season, and the Arizona Diamondbacks are expected to be in the mix.
The Athletic and ESPN both released preseason power rankings with NL-only top fives, Arizona included.
The top free agent bat on the market, Juan Soto, migrated from the American League’s New York Yankees to the New York Mets in the NL. Arguably the top pitcher on the market, Corbin Burnes, moved leagues from Baltimore to Arizona, while coveted international free agent pitcher Roki Sasaki chose the Los Angeles Dodgers.
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The Diamondbacks built a team they expect to compete for a postseason spot after winning 89 games a year ago, regardless of what has gone on around them.
The NL West will always be a challenge so long as the Dodgers continue building and spending at such a degree, but last year emphasized the importance of winning series against fellow NL contenders when it comes down to postseason positioning. The D-backs losing tiebreakers to the Mets and Atlanta Braves doomed them.
Let’s go through the 15 National Leagues teams as we did on the Ain’t No Fang podcast last week and put them into tiers, highlighting the biggest threats to Arizona’s path to another World Series.
National League tiers: Who stands in the Diamondbacks’ way?
Surefire pennant contenders
Dodgers (7-6 vs. D-backs in 2024) – The Dodgers are the favorites to repeat as world champions with an absurd pitching staff from a talent perspective. Two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell and Sasaki join Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, while defending NL MVP Shohei Ohtani is gearing up to pitch this year. L.A. added Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates to the bullpen. The lineup is spearheaded by three MVPs in Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.
Anything can happen in October, but getting there should be little issue for the Dodgers.
Braves (5-2 vs. D-backs in 2024) – So much went wrong for the Braves last year and they still made the playoffs. Atlanta lost 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. and ace pitcher Spencer Strider in the first two months of the year and managed to win 89 games. Strider will rejoin a rotation with 2024 Cy Young Chris Sale in April, while Acuña is expected back in May.
The Braves led MLB in scoring in 2023, and the personnel is going to be very similar with Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Marcell Ozuna. They added 2024 All-Star Jurickson Profar to the outfield. Maybe the Braves are not as deep as the Dodgers, but this team is right up there with offensive firepower.
Dangerous
Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks won 89 games despite a disappointing season by the injury-riddled pitching staff. They responded by signing Burnes to a team-record $210 million deal over six years. The Diamondbacks made the 2023 postseason in large part because starters Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly were so dependable, and one of the most durable and effective starters of the 2020s now joins them.
The offense will be spearheaded by Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte. Carroll was a top five MVP candidate in 2023 when he won the NL Rookie of the Year with 25 home runs and 54 steals. He battled back last year after a rough first three months and crushed the ball in the second half. Marte was an MVP finalist and an All-Star last year. Not many 1-2 punches in MLB present this much upside. Arizona lost Joc Pederson and Christian Walker but picked up Josh Naylor to replace some power in the middle of the order. Steps forward for young core members such as catcher Gabriel Moreno would go a long way.
Phillies (3-4 vs. D-backs in 2024) – The Phillies were a top-five scoring team last year while finishing eighth in starter ERA. They won 95 games — their sixth straight year of increasing the win total — and claimed a division crown. The Phillies will contend for the best rotation in MLB again, led by Zach Wheeler and the ascending Cristopher Sanchez. The lineup while older is packed with stars such as Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
They are mostly running it back after falling short of a title for the third straight postseason, losing to the Mets in the NLDS. There is some shuffling in the bullpen, as former Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano enters while All-Stars Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez left in free agency.
Mets (4-3 vs. D-backs in 2024) – The Mets made a surprise run to the NLCS as the final Wild Card team and signed the biggest free agent of the winter. Since his rookie year in 2019, Soto is second to Aaron Judge in fWAR among position players while ranking fourth in OPS and sixth in home runs. New York also brought back power-hitting first baseman Pete Alonso after a free agent saga. With MVP runner-up Francisco Lindor atop the batting order, the Mets boast one of the most potent lineups on paper after finishing seventh in runs scored last year.
The pitching staff has more questions given spring injuries to Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, but a return to form season for Kodai Senga would put this club’s ceiling on another level. Former Yankees closer Clay Holmes will start on Opening Day.
Has the bones of a playoff team
Padres (7-6 vs. D-backs in 2024) – The Padres have the star power to push into the postseason again after they nearly put away the Dodgers in the NLDS, up 2-1 in the series at home. Outfielder Jackson Merrill was a stud last year, finishing second in the Rookie of the Year race and making the All-Star team. Third baseman Manny Machado won a Silver Slugger, outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. was an All-Star and infielder Luis Arraez won the batting title for a third straight year.
This is also a much more top-heavy roster without Profar, Scott, catcher Kyle Higashioka and pitcher Joe Musgrove (Tommy John surgery). The bottom of the lineup is reliant on older veteran fill-ins without much of a safety net. The rotation is led by Dylan Cease and Michael King, two players in walk years who have been a part of trade rumors this offseason amid ownership drama. If all goes right, this is a dangerous team in October, but there could be a lot of volatility.
Cubs (3-3 vs. D-backs in 2024) – The Diamondbacks’ Opening Day opponent, Chicago has not made the postseason since 2020 and finally added a superstar to the lineup with hopes to end that drought. The Cubs acquired three-time All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker from Houston in the final year of his contract. Since 2020, Tucker has an .883 OPS while averaging 24 homers per season.
Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch all performed well at the plate last year, and former top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong emerging as a capable bat to pair with elite outfield defense would set up the lineup nicely. The rotation is still led by dynamic lefties Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele, and the club revamped its bullpen. Craig Counsell’s team won 83 games in his first season as manager with higher expectations.
Brewers (3-4 vs. D-backs in 2024) – Milwaukee has cracked the postseason in six of the last seven years, winning 93 games in 2024 after trading Burnes and losing Brandon Woodruff to injury. The offense finished sixth in runs, while the pitching staff still managed a top five ERA with an excellent bullpen.
The Brewers traded star closer Devin Williams to the Yankees for starter Nestor Cortes and infield prospect Caleb Durbin, while shortstop Willy Adames signed with San Francisco. Returning for Milwaukee is Rookie of the Year finalist Jackson Chourio in the outfield after a monster second half, franchise face Christian Yelich off back surgery and stud catcher William Contreras. The Brewers have one of the lowest payrolls in MLB, and the question is how long they can continue replenishing the roster after losing stalwart players.
Have to squint
Giants (6-7 vs. D-backs in 2024) – The Giants have won between 79-81 games in each of the last three seasons, and they spent big this winter on Adames and 42-year-old pitcher Justin Verlander. Losing Snell to the Dodgers hurts a rotation that will need Cy Young winners Verlander and Robbie Ray to bounce back. Ray has not thrown a full season since 2022 and Verlander worked a 5.48 ERA last year. Logan Webb headlines the staff after leading the league in innings for back-to-back years.
The lineup should improve with Adames coming off a 32-home run season plus a healthy campaign for second-year outfielder Jung-Hoo Lee. The question is whether they did enough in Buster Posey’s first offseason running the show to make up ground in the stacked NL West or Wild Card race.
Reds (1-5 vs. D-backs in 2024) – Cincinnati settled for 77 wins after nearly missing the 2023 playoffs. Manager Terry Francona was hired to pull the right cords and put the club back on track. The Reds have one of the most dynamic players in MLB with Elly De La Cruz, who managed to fit 25 home runs, 36 doubles, 10 triples, a league-leading 67 steals and MLB-high 218 strikeouts in on season.
Infielder and 2023 standout Matt McLain is back after missing all of last season, and former Dodger Gavin Lux joins a lineup that was pretty lousy beyond De La Cruz last season. Hunter Greene was a legit ace in 2024 with a 2.75 ERA in 150 innings. The bullpen will need a better year from closer Alexis Diaz (3.99 ERA), who will start on the IL with a hamstring issue.
Cardinals (3-3 vs. D-backs in 2024) – The Cardinals were one of the least active clubs in MLB this winter after an 83-win season, as they are shifting toward playing a younger group. Longtime decision maker John Mozeliak is in his last year, while Chaim Bloom is getting ready to take over.
The Cardinals have veteran talent on the roster to unload if that is the direction they decide, including closer Ryan Helsley. St. Louis reportedly had a deal ready to send out third baseman Nolan Arenado, but his no-trade clause quashed it. A team stuck in the middle with intentions to give its youth opportunities will probably look a bit different later this season, but there is enough veteran talent to tread water with the right breaks.
Pirates (2-4 vs. D-backs in 2024) – The Pirates struck gold by earning the top pick in 2023 and drafting Paul Skenes, who won the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year and is a Cy Young favorite for 2025. Pittsburgh’s rotation has some promise to it, pending No. 2 starter Jared Jones’ second opinion for elbow soreness. Top prospects Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington are getting close as well.
The bullpen really needs a better year from closer David Bednar, who after back-to-back All-Star seasons had a dud 2024 (5.77 ERA). The reason Pittsburgh isn’t higher is its offense finished with the fourth-lowest OPS and seventh-fewest runs scored last year, and no significant efforts to improve were made.
Nationals (1-5 vs. D-backs in 2024) – The Nationals have a highly anticipated young duo in the lineup with second-year outfielder James Wood and rookie outfielder Dylan Crews having debuted last season. Crews is No. 3 on MLB Pipeline’s top 100 prospects list while Wood was considered a top-three prospect before he came up.
Washington added some veteran depth to the lineup to build around them, trading for first baseman Nathaniel Lowe from Texas and signing former D-backs slugger Josh Bell. The Nationals were a bottom 10 team in scoring and ERA last year, so there is a ways to go before reaching contender status, and the development of the young core is the main storyline here.
No shot
Marlins (2-4 vs. D-backs in 2024) – Miami entered a rebuild last year, trading away much of its 2023 postseason roster. Relievers A.J. Puk and Scott, infielders Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Arraez all finished the year on other teams, and the sell-off continued this winter with power hitter Jake Burger dealt to Texas.
The Marlins lost 100 games last season after they finished bottom five in runs scored and team OPS. Cy Young-winning pitcher Sandy Alcantara is healthy after a lost 2024 season (Tommy John surgery), but the biggest question revolves around what team will acquire his services.
Rockies (4-9 vs. D-backs in 2024) – The Rockies were mostly inactive this offseason as they count of internal improvements to avoid a third straight 100-loss season. They allowed the most runs in baseball with the fewest strikeouts and highest hard-hit rate in MLB. Colorado has arguably its most enticing pitching prospect in years, as 2023 first-round pick Chase Dollander is perhaps knocking on the door. The rest of the rotation is pretty familiar with Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela and German Marquez having all been in Colorado since at least 2017.
Center fielder Brenton Doyle and shortstop Ezequiel Tovar both won Gold Gloves and combined for 49 home runs last season, giving the Rockies a pair of young bats to build around. Beyond them, there is a lot of unproven talent that the Rockies will need to break out in order to avoid the cellar once again.
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