Russia has adopted a new and deadlier tactic in its attacks on Ukrainian cities, ramping up the pressure on Kyiv’s defences, even as Moscow and Kyiv agree to end strikes on the Black Sea.
The White House confirmed Tuesday that during “technical-level” talks in Riyadh, the two sides agreed to ensure safe navigation in the region.
“The United States will help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions,” the White House said in a statement.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that the Black Sea Initiative – a deal originally brokered in 2022 – was a key focus of the US-Russia talks, according to the state-owned TASS news agency.
The grain deal, which had helped stabilise global food prices, collapsed in July 2023 when Moscow withdrew. Since then, Russia has repeatedly targeted Ukrainian port infrastructure, further disrupting agricultural exports.
On Friday, a swarm of Russian drones struck the southern port city of Odesa, flying at higher altitudes before plunging towards their targets and exploding on impact. The tactic makes the drones harder to detect by air defence systems but reduces their accuracy, increasing the likelihood of civilian casualties, an expert said.
Alexander Lord, a defence analyst with Sibylline, said the strategy marks a shift in how Moscow is using its Shahed drones. “It’s a novel way to deploy them,” he told The i Paper. “The reduced accuracy makes them less effective against specific targets, but the higher altitude makes them significantly harder to intercept with small arms fire.”
Lord said that Ukraine’s ability to neutralise the drones is further limited because its more advanced air defence systems must be conserved for higher-priority threats.
“This diving tactic is designed to put additional pressure on Ukraine’s already stretched air defence network,” he added. “The drones are cheap to produce and part of a broader strategy to instil terror and weaken the public’s resolve.”
He also noted that Russia may be using the strikes to send a political message. “Hitting Odesa – a city of strategic and symbolic importance – could be a demonstration that they can strike wherever they want, regardless of the Black Sea deal.”
Lord said the new agreement could offer more benefits to Russia than Ukraine.
“The Russian surface fleet has already pulled back from conducting operations due to the threat of Ukrainian naval drones,” he explained. “A ceasefire in the Black Sea would decrease the threat to Russia’s vessels, which may be one of their motivations for the deal.”
Russia seeks to delay deal
However, he said that Russia remains cautious about fully committing. “There are still broad concerns in Moscow about agreeing to a ceasefire. In 2023, they pulled out of the previous initiative after failing to secure sanctions relief for their agricultural exports. This time, they may push for further concessions, such as sanctions.
“There may be more progress than meets the eye – but Russia will want to delay any meaningful agreements as long as they maintain the upper hand on the battlefield.”
The Moscow Times reported on 24 March that Russia is deliberately stalling the peace talks to seize more territory and strengthen its negotiating position with the US.
Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, who is leading Kyiv’s delegation, said military, diplomatic, and energy representatives participated in the 23 March discussions.
“The conversation was constructive and meaningful — we discussed key issues, including in the energy sector,” Umerov wrote on Facebook.
So far, however, Russia has rejected Ukraine’s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, instead agreeing only to suspend strikes on energy infrastructure.
Lord said the moratorium on energy strikes is largely a symbolic gesture.
“It’s an empty offer,” he said. “Russia could present it to Trump as a goodwill gesture, signalling that they’re serious about a ceasefire. But in reality, it serves their interests.”
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He said that Russia’s previous winter offensives had already heavily targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. “Now that the weather is changing, hitting those targets has less impact. By pausing energy strikes, Russia can focus on industrial and military targets instead – while also rebuilding its stockpiles for future campaigns.”
Lord warned that Russia is unlikely to compromise unless its battlefield position deteriorates. “At the moment, they believe they hold the stronger hand and have little reason to agree to a ceasefire – unless they fear alienating the Trump administration.”
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, at least 80 people were wounded, including children, in a Russian missile strike on Monday that hit a densely populated area in the city of Sumy. The attack severely damaged a school and a hospital, according to Oleksandr Prokudin, head of the Kherson region’s military administration.
Russian forces also hit critical infrastructure and residential areas in the region, destroying four private homes, damaging garages, and setting a car ablaze. One person was killed, and six others were injured in the assault.
Elsewhere, a Ukrainian rocket attack on the Russian-occupied Luhansk region killed at least six people, including three Russian journalists. Despite the tentative progress in peace talks, the bloodshed continues.
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