There was relief in the Conservative Party this week. The reason? Kemi Badenoch did something. Despite previously warning MPs not to hold out hope for big policy announcements any time soon, Badenoch used a speech to declare that the consensus on net zero 2050 was over – as she said the legally binding emissions target was impossible.
It was a move that won the official opposition headlines and favourable op-eds – and went some way towards showing she was different to the Tory leaders who came before (it was Theresa May who brought in the target). The hope is that it was a bold enough move to – as strategists would put it – “cut through”.
While the jury is out on that one, in the Tory party it’s being viewed as marking a new stage in her leadership. For the first four months, she has faced growing criticism that her style is rather low-fi at a time when MPs need a leader who will take the fight to Labour.
“One of the reasons a lot of us backed her was this idea that she would slay Starmer at Prime Minister’s Questions – but, actually, half the time Rishi would have done a better job,” complains a parliamentary colleague, while a shadow minister adds: “It has been underwhelming.”
This week was judged one of Badenoch’s better performances. At one point, she managed a laugh as she offered to “swap sides” in the face of Starmer asking her questions. “She’s more clear on what she wants to do now,” says a close ally. ‘”It means that PMQs is becoming more focused.”
There was no Shadow Cabinet this week because Badenoch was instead busy launching her much-hyped policy commissions. Each is to be led by the relevant shadow secretary of state – and span several months. In a bid to feed the news cycle, aides are discussing releasing updates every couple of weeks in order to keep up a sense of momentum.
Another thing encouraging some MPs on the right is that after junking net zero 2050, withdrawal from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) could be next. During the party leadership contest, Badenoch would not go so far – in contrast with her main rival, Robert Jenrick, who made leaving the ECHR a clear part of his campaign message.
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Yet the mood music among senior members of the shadow Cabinet is of increased ECHR scepticism, including from shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp. Mainstream opinion on the issue also appears to be moving.
Earlier this month, former Labour home secretary Jack Straw urged Starmer to back away from the ECHR. Within 10 Downing Street, some of Starmer’s aides are also sceptical of the court in light of recent reports about how Article 8 can be used to keep foreign criminals in the UK.
So it’s fair to say that this week hasn’t made things worse for Badenoch. Yet having an OKish week is not a big achievement if the wider picture remains miserable.
The Tories are regularly polling in third place behind Labour and Reform UK. While they enjoyed the light relief of this month’s public spat between Reform’s Nigel Farage and now former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, it is yet to make any significant dent in the polls.
What’s more, in the next few weeks a campaign advocating for some type of electoral pact or collaboration between Reform and the Tories is expected. Badenoch has said she is against one – but even her own shadow business minister, Greg Smith, has said he is in favour of an arrangement.
“There is going to come a point where the parties on the right-of-centre look at where things stand ahead of the 2029 general election,” he said this week. “If there is a risk of a continued Labour government… I think there has to be some sort of deal.”
But many Tory MPs believe Badenoch would be the wrong leader to broker any deal. They take the view that her personality and direct approach could make an agreement with Farage impossible.
The questions over pacts and Badenoch’s ability are only likely to grow louder after the May local elections. In Conservative Campaign headquarters, there is an attempt to suggest the result will be bad and would have been bad for any Tory leader at this point in the cycle.
But Badenoch’s critics say this is no excuse and that she needs to show she can stop Reform. Labour ministers may have helped her in this regard – some of the key battlegrounds, such as Essex, have been postponed as a result of local government changes.
It means Badenoch’s critics are looking ahead to a new crunch point: the 2026 local elections. “That will be a much better judge of how she is doing,” says a Tory figure. “By that point she won’t be able to hide behind commissions or reviews – and the electorate will get a proper say.” In order to pass that test, Badenoch is going to need more than the odd “OK” week.
Katy Balls is political editor of ‘The Spectator’
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