Now we know what it looks like when Russia says no to America.
Donald Trump wanted a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. He threatened Russia with what would happen if they did not agree. “I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire,” he wrote on 7 March. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted the ball was on Russia’s side of the court. “If they say no,” he said, “then we’ll unfortunately know what the impediment is to peace here.”
Well, Russia did say no. It’s not been said out loud in the wake of yesterday’s hours-long phone call between Vladimir Putin and Trump, but that is the inescapable conclusion.
The one meaningful proposal is a ceasefire on energy and infrastructure targets, but that is far below the promise of a full ceasefire which Ukraine agreed to on 11 March. Trump wanted something. He did not get it.
It’s worth casting our minds back to what happened when Ukraine refused to do as it was told by the US administration. On 28 February, Volodymyr Zelensky mildly disagreed with Trump and Vice President JD Vance in the White House. His reward was to be bullied, thrown out and have American support withdrawn.
When Putin rejects Trump’s plans, precisely the opposite happens. The White House readout of the call insisted that “a future with an improved bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia has huge upside”. Far from punishing Russia, it raised the possibility of “enormous economic deals”. The Kremlin’s account said that Trump expressed support for ice hockey games in each other’s countries – basically reintroducing normal sporting relations.
What does this teach us? That Trump will ultimately always side with Putin. Who knows why that’s the case. Perhaps the Russian leader has kompromat on him, an idea which is no sillier than any other explanation. Perhaps they simply get on personally. Or perhaps they recognise that they are engaged in a shared ideological project to dismantle liberal democracy and replace it with global governments of a fascist character.
That, to me, is the most obvious answer, but you can take your pick really. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter. Only the dynamics matter. Trump will side with Putin.
Today, that leaves us with a mutilated ceasefire proposal restricted to energy infrastructure. What a surprise. This is one of Ukraine’s most effective means of attack. Sure, Russia has tried to freeze Ukraine through winter by destroying energy generation and gas production facilities. But Ukraine’s long-range drone attacks on oil refineries have been powerfully effective. Putin has now found a way to neutralise them. If Zelensky complains, he will presumably be treated to the much more brutal response Trump reserves for his side of the dispute.
According to the White House, we’re now apparently going to see the start of “technical negotiations” on the next stages of the ceasefire. Trump has previously said that he wants to discuss “land” and “dividing up certain assets” – none of which would involve Ukrainian participation. The Kremlin talked about establishing US and Russian expert groups – again, with no mention of Ukrainian participation. We are basically watching the US decide which bits of Ukraine’s territory and infrastructure it is going to hand to Russia.
square PATRICK COCKBURN
Trump and Putin’s call showed peace in Ukraine is still a long way off
Read MoreThere will be no peace here. We should be clear about that. Peace was never on offer and we are never going to get it – ceasefire or no ceasefire. Russia’s demands and Ukraine’s demands are incompatible. Ukraine’s aim is to exist. Russia’s aim is the eradication of Ukraine. You can’t negotiate your way through that impasse. You can only defeat the aggressor state, or, failing that, wait for its leader to die and hope that the next one is better.
The readouts from yesterday’s phone call make it clear that this situation still stands. Russia is demanding an end to Ukrainian mobilisation, the complete cessation of foreign military assistance and intelligence provision and the “unconditional necessity to remove the initial causes for the crisis” – code for Ukrainian self-determination.
In other words, Putin demands that Ukraine be left defenceless. Stripped first of the Crimea and other territories Russia has seized, barred from defending itself and deprived of the means to do so, it will simply be wiped from the face of the earth.
When you put aside all the noise of the last two weeks, nothing has actually changed. Putin wants to destroy Ukraine. If he succeeds, he will continue to expand Russia’s sphere of influence across Eastern Europe. Trump cannot stand up to him. He is either consciously on his side or so close to it that the two positions are indistinguishable.
Europe therefore faces Russia alone. Any day now, Trump could present Zelensky with a fait accompli deal which it simply cannot accept, because it is so obviously Putin’s initial plan for its dismemberment. If Ukraine were to reject that deal, we could expect Trump to remove US support. This potentially includes the cessation of equipment supplies, intelligence assistance, satellite communication and even European defence supplies bought for donation.
Europe’s task is simple. It is to make sure Ukraine can continue to fight even if the US withdraws all its support. At the moment Europe does not have the capacity to do this in full. It can simply help Ukraine cause Russia maximum pain for every inch of land which it takes. But we can at least use this time efficiently and clear-sightedly.
We can prepare as quickly as possible for when the day is upon us. We can maximise our effort to replace the US even if we cannot immediately accomplish it.
Trump’s theatrics and phone calls change nothing. He is Putin’s ally, not ours. What comes next will be up to Europe, not America.
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