College basketball expert Ryan Fagan breaks down his 2025 NCAA bracket picks with a little help from our TRACR model.
The good thing about immediately filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket is that you have a few days to think over your choices, do a little extra research and reevaluate all of your rash decisions, like picking Duke to lose on the opening weekend because you still hate Grayson Allen.
Opta Analyst’s TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) rankings have a pretty solid track record of showing which teams are underseeded and which teams are overseeded, which is helpful info when trying to choose your upsets.
And speaking of upsets, if you want to try something a little different for your bracket this year, consider joining the Opta Analyst Predictor Bracket, where your nailing of upset picks can be a much more impactful strategy than going chalk all the way to the title game.
Here’s how it works, directly from the rules and regulations: “Our supercomputer runs simulations of the 2025 NCAA Tournament to determine how likely it is that a particular team will reach a particular round. We’re doing this for the men’s and women’s tournaments. If you pick a team that has a 70% chance of advancing past the first round and that team wins, you’ll receive 30 points (100% minus the percentage chance your selection will advance). If it has a 45% chance of advancing past the second round to the Sweet 16 and again advances, you’ll get 55 points. If it has a 20% chance of reaching the Elite Eight and you get that pick right, you’ll get 80 points.”
So, yeah. Pick those upsets you believe in and get rewarded.
With that in mind, here’s a region-by-region breakdown of this year’s field, with TRACR insights and helpful suggestions of which teams might help you win this new approach to filling out your bracket.
South Region
Upset Special: On your bracket sheets, the Michigan-UC-San Diego matchup is a 5 versus 12 game. By our TRACR rankings, though, that’s the No. 27 team (Michigan) vs. the No. 32 team (UCSD). Yes, Michigan is coming off the Big Ten tournament, where the Wolverines beat Wisconsin in the title game despite struggling to score for much of the game. But UCSD is legit – 30 wins don’t happen by accident – and stepping away from the numbers a bit, just a perfect March Cinderella story, as a school making the NCAA Tournament in the first season it was eligible after jumping to Division I.
Dark Horse: No. 6 Ole Miss. By “dark horse” we’re talking about teams that could make a run to the Final Four, not just teams that could pull an upset or two. The Rebels have struggled at times this season, but they own wins vs. two No. 2 seeds (Tennessee and Alabama) and a No. 3 seed (Kentucky). Plus, the bracket sets up well for them. Survive the opener vs. the winner of the San Diego State-North Carolina play-in game, and their likely opponent is No. 3 seed Iowa State; the Cyclones will be without their best player in Keshon Gilbert. That’s helpful. And in the Sweet 16, their likely opponent would be Michigan State, which is the least imposing of the No. 2 seeds.
Be Wary: No. 1 Auburn. It’s not just that Auburn has lost three of its past four games – though the thoughts of doubt that start to creep in after coming up on the short end so many times in succession can be VERY invasive when the pressure of the NCAA Tournament rolls around – but that potential second-round matchup against Louisville is rough. Pat Kelsey’s Cardinals are not the same team they were at the start of the season. They had won 11 in a row heading into the ACC tournament title game against Duke, including a win against Clemson in the ACC semifinals. They’re playing confident and without fear, which are two very good characteristics for a team playing in March.
The Pick: Auburn. Yeah, the Tigers will potentially have a brutal second-round matchup vs. Louisville, but survive that and they could very well cruise through the rest of the region.
First Round
No. 1 Auburn over No. 16 Alabama StateNo. 8 Louisville over No. 9 CreightonNo. 12 UC San Diego over No. 5 MichiganNo. 4 Texas A&M over No. 13 YaleNo. 6 Ole Miss over No. 11 San Diego StateNo. 3 Iowa State over No. 14 LipscombNo. 7 Marquette over No. 10 New MexicoNo. 2 Michigan State over No. 15 Bryant
Second Round
No. 1 Auburn over No. 8 Louisville No. 12 UC San Diego over No. 4 Texas A&MNo. 6 Ole Miss over No. 3 Iowa StateNo. 7 Marquette over No. 2 Michigan State
Sweet 16
No. 1 Auburn over No. 12 UC San DiegoNo. 6 Ole Miss over No. 7 Marquette
Elite Eight
No. 1 Auburn over No. 6 Ole Miss
West Region
Upset Special: No. 12 seed Colorado State actually has a higher TRACR rating (35) than No. 5 seed Memphis (51). The Rams haven’t lost in more than a month, rattling off 10 consecutive wins, including one over at-large team Utah State and two against bubble team Boise State. Nique Clifford is a 6-foot-6 guard who is on a scoring tear; he’s averaged 27.8 points in his last four games.
Dark Horse: No. 6 Missouri. The Tigers got a pretty knowledgable endorsement from Porter Moser, a former Final Four coach, earlier this year. “I really feel they’re a team that can make a deep, deep run. I’ve said that and I know what a Final Four (team) looks like. They’re very good on both sides. I think they pose really tough problems defensively because they’re constantly turning you over with their positional size, their effort, their relentlessness.” They were without team leader Mark Mitchell for most of their SEC tournament win vs. Mississippi State, and pushed Florida deep into the second half with Mitchell on the sidelines in that loss. With Mitchell healthy, Mizzou beat Florida, Alabama and Kansas this season; he’s expected back and could be a tournament difference-maker.
Be Wary: No. 2 St. John’s. This has been a magical season for the Johnnies and their legendary coach, Rick Pitino. It wouldn’t be at all shocking to see NYC’s team make a run to the Final Four, but its potential path just to get to the Elite Eight is tough. In the second round, they’d have to play the winner of Kansas-Arkansas, and then in the Sweet 16 face either Texas Tech or Mizzou. The Johnnies’ incredible season has all kinds of amazing storylines, but one thing they’re lacking as a roster is NCAA Tournament experience. Pitino did the best he could to recreate that urgency in the Big East tournament and his players responded well, but this March stage hits differently.
The Pick: Florida. The Gators’ occasional hiccup game – losing by 20 to a Tennessee team they previously beat by 30, or losing to a good-not-great Georgia squad – is a bit disconcerting, as is their potential second-round game against two-time defending champ UConn, but when they’re firing on all cylinders (as they have been lately), they’re a joy to watch.
First Round
No. 1 Florida over No. 16 Norfolk StateNo. 8 UConn over No. 9 OklahomaNo. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 MemphisNo. 4 Maryland over No. 13 Grand CanyonNo. 6 Missouri over No. 11 DrakeNo. 3 Texas Tech over No. 14 UNC–WilmingtonNo. 10 Arkansas over No. 7 KansasNo. 2 St. John’s over No. 15 Omaha
Second Round
No. 1 Florida over No. 8 UConnNo. 4 Maryland over No. 12 Colorado StateNo. 6 Missouri over No. 3 Texas TechNo. 2 St. John’s over No. 10 Arkansas
Sweet 16
No. 1 Florida over No. 4 MarylandNo. 2 St. John’s over No. 6 Missouri
Elite Eight
No. 1 Florida over No. 2. St. John’s
East Region
Upset Special: Akron, the No. 13 seed in the region, is 21-1 since the calendar turned to 2025 and has a ton of guys who can shoot 3-pointers. The Zips’ team 3-point percentage is good, not great – at 36.4%, they’re tied for 59th in the country – but they have seven players who have at least 31 made 3-pointers (and two more with at least 11). That isn’t necessarily the best way to make a deep tournament run, but all it takes is a couple guys getting hot to cause a lot of trouble in a win-or-go-home scenario for No. 4 seed Arizona.
Dark Horse: No. 6 BYU. I promise, I’m not going to pick only No. 6 seeds as the dark horse selection, though there is some logic for picking teams from the bottom half of the brackets. The goal is to find a team that could reach the Final Four, and being on the other side means they wouldn’t face the No. 1 seed until the Elite Eight. In this case, TRACR loves BYU. The Cougars are No. 20, ahead of No. 3 seed Kentucky and No. 4 seeds Purdue. They’re ninth in offensive TRACR (O-TRACR) and have scored at least 85 points 16 times this season.
Be Wary: No. 2 Alabama. It sure is tempting to pick the high-scoring Crimson Tide to ride that wave of talent all the way to the Final Four, isn’t it? But Alabama went just 4-5 down the stretch as fellow SEC teams – all nine games were vs. ranked teams, we should point out – learned how to take punches from the Tide offense and counter-punch in a way Alabama just couldn’t handle. In those five losses, the Tide allowed 110, 104, 99, 94 and 79 points. At some point in the NCAA Tournament, you have to guard and Alabama just doesn’t do that very well.
The Pick: Duke. What the Blue Devils did in the ACC tournament without Cooper Flagg was impressive.
First Round
No. 1 Duke over No. 16 AmericanNo. 8 Mississippi State over No. 9 BaylorNo. 5 Oregon over No. 12 LibertyNo. 13 Akron over No. 4 Arizona No. 6 BYU over No. 11 VCUNo. 3 Wisconsin over No. 14 MontanaNo. 7 Saint Mary’s over No. 10 VanderbiltNo. 2 Alabama over No. 15 Robert Morris
Second Round
No. 1 Duke over No. 8 Mississippi StateNo. 5 Oregon over No. 13 AkronNo. 6 BYU over No. 3 WisconsinNo. 2 Alabama over No. 7 Saint Mary’s
Sweet 16
No. 1 Duke over No. 5 OregonNo. 2 Alabama over No. 6 BYU
Elite Eight
No. 1 Duke over No. 2. Alabama
Midwest Region
Upset Special: Purdue struggled mightily down the stretch, losing six of its last nine games but still wound up with a No. 4 seed. High Point won the always-tough Big South by three games in the regular season, then claimed the conference tournament championship, too. The Panthers have a bunch of guys who love to shoot 3-pointers and are on a roll heading into the NCAA Tournament, with 14 consecutive victories. They have something a lot of mid-majors don’t, a 7-footer in the middle in Juslin Bodo Bodo to counteract some of Purdue’s size.
Dark Horse: How about two? The first one is No. 8 seed Gonzaga, but we’ll get to the Zags in a minute. The other one is 5-seed Clemson; the Tigers were Clark Kellogg’s Final Four pick on the CBS Selection Show, which probably sparked a lot of “Wait, what?” reactions around the country. But Clemson is 12th nationally in defensive TRACR (D-TRACR) and ranked No. 10 in the latest AP Top 25 Poll. That poll, of course, is more about how a team’s currently playing than what its overall resume looks like, and the Tigers are playing well – 15-2 record to close the season, including a win over Duke.
Be Wary: No. 1 Houston. Remember how we looked at the 5-vs-12 game in the South Region and compared that to the TRACR rankings? Same thing could happen here for a Houston team that’s had a brilliant season. The Cougars are No. 2 in the TRACR ratings, but guess what team’s at No. 6? Yep, their potential second-round opponent, Gonzaga. Oh, and the Zags have reached the Sweet 16 nine years in a row and they have an exceptional veteran point guard running the team in Ryan Nembhard. He’s been to the Sweet 16 with both Gonzaga and Creighton.
The Pick: Tennessee. Chaz Lanier is the type of player who could be a March Madness star.
First Round
No. 1 Houston over No. 16 SIU–EdwardsvilleNo. 8 Gonzaga over No. 9 GeorgiaNo. 5 Clemson over No. 12 McNeese StateNo. 13 High Point over No. 4 PurdueNo. 6 Illinois over No. 11 TexasNo. 3 Kentucky over No. 14 TroyNo. 10 Utah State over No. 7 UCLANo. 2 Tennessee over No. 15 Wofford
Second Round
No. 1 Houston over No. 8 GonzagaNo. 5 Clemson over No. 13 High PointNo. 3 Kentucky over No. 6 IllinoisNo. 2 Tennessee over No. 10 Utah State
Sweet 16
No. 1 Houston over No. 5 ClemsonNo. 2 Tennessee over No. 3 Kentucky
Elite Eight
No. 2 Tennessee over No. 1 Houston
Ryan Fagan’s Final Four Picks
No. 1 Florida over No. 1 AuburnNo. 1 Duke over No. 2 Tennessee
NCAA Championship Game
No. 1 Florida over No. 1 Duke
The confidence level is not high on this pick, if I’m being honest. Florida feels like the team that is best-suited to win tournament games when not everything is working, and that’s an essential trait when navigating this annual challenge.
You can follow our social accounts over on X, Threads, Bluesky and Facebook.
March Madness 2025: Ryan Fagan’s Expert NCAA Tournament Bracket Picks Opta Analyst.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( March Madness 2025: Ryan Fagan’s Expert NCAA Tournament Bracket Picks )
Also on site :
- Hamas executes Palestinians for looting as desperation grows under Israeli blockade
- South Sacramento standoff ends with suspect surrendering to SWAT officers
- ALM vs GGL Dream11 Prediction Today Match, Dream11 Team Today, Fantasy Cricket Tips, Playing XI, Pitch Report, Injury Update- Kuwait T10 Challengers League 2025, Match 32