Italy vs Ireland Six Nations 2025 Prediction and Preview ...Middle East

Ireland look to bounce back from a humbling loss to France while Italy hope to dodge the Wooden Spoon and end their Championship on a high. We analyse this Six Nations 2025 clash with our Italy vs Ireland prediction and preview.

Ireland’s hopes of a historic three consecutive Six Nations titles were dealt a devastating blow as France racked up 42 points in Dublin last week. Despite a late flurry of tries against Fabien Galthié’s gladiators, Simon Easterby’s men now need nothing short of a minor miracle to get their hands on the trophy.

5 – @FranceRugby have won a @SixNationsRugby match in Dublin by a double-digit margin for the first time, with their tally of five tries today being the joint-most of any side away to Ireland in the Championship, alongside England in 2003. Demolition. pic.twitter.com/t9Yb6WV1Ah

While the haunting whispers of that defeat will echo for some time to come, history is on Ireland’s side in this fixture, and all involved will be keen to further establish their Lions credentials to regular boss Andy Farrell.

Ireland’s only previous Six Nations loss to Italy came at the Stadio Olimpico in 2013 (22-15), a result that saw Ireland drop to an all-time low of ninth in the world rankings and condemned them to fifth place in that year’s Six Nations. Their progress in the 12 years since has been nothing short of remarkable.

Italy’s rise in recent years has been impressive too. Should the Azzurri claim a second win against the men in green, they’ll finish a Six Nations campaign with two wins in back-to-back years for the very first time.

Super saturday:

France vs Scotland Six Nations 2025 Prediction and Preview

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Strengths

Both Italy (132) and Ireland (125) have been happy to put boot to ball so far this Championship, with only England (150) making more kicks in open play than the pair.

It is a tactic that has worked well for Ireland, who have retained possession from 19% of their kicks from hand, the highest rate of any team in 2025. Three of their retained kicks have come in the form of 50/22s, more than the other five nations combined (2).

Italy have been one of the most physical teams in defence this year, making 66 dominant tackles after four rounds – more than any other team. Additionally, 12 of their tackles have seen them win a turnover, a joint Championship high alongside Wales and a real contrast to Ireland, who sit bottom for both categories (33 dominant tackles, 7 turnover tackles).

Weaknesses

Ireland and Italy have both struggled at set-pieces this year, registering the two lowest lineout success rates of any sides (Ireland – 89.6%, Italy 88.9%), and managing just one lineout steal each. Ireland also have the Championship’s joint-lowest scrum success rate (87.5%, level with Scotland) and have consistently squandered good field positions.

Ireland’s inability to make the most of their chances hasn’t just been limited to the set-piece, though. Overall, they’ve averaged a healthy 9.8 entries into the opposition 22 per game (only behind France and Scotland). However, they’ve averaged just 2.4 points per entry, half a point lower than England and Wales (2.9 each) and a long way off France (3.7).

Italy have struggled in that department too, as the bottom-ranked team for points scored per entry (2.2).

Defensively, the same metric makes for even worse reading for Ireland and Italy, with the pair the only nations to concede 3+ points per 22 entry this campaign (Ireland 3.0, Italy 3.8).

Fantasy Picks

A couple of returning faces in Ireland’s starting XV could provide good value picks in the final round. Jack Crowley is set for his first start this year, with his only previous Six Nations try having come against Italy last year.

Munster/Ireland legends Peter O’Mahony and Conor Murray are set to don the green jersey for a final time after a combined 199 caps, having both been named among the replacements for Saturday’s clash. Given the fact that Murray will retire as the Six Nations’ all-time leader in terms of try assists after notching his 30th off the bench against France last week, he provides a tempting super-sub option.

For Italy, Brexoncello (Juan Ignacio Brex and Tommaso Menoncello) are the only two players to have played every minute of this 2025 Six Nations campaign, and both have scored well. Huw Jones (34.5) is the only centre to have averaged more fantasy points per game then last year’s Player of the Championship Menoncello (31).

Lorenzo Cannone and Sebastian Negri have both been reliable scorers, the latter making the second-most tackles (67) of anyone in the Championship and the former being a dual threat, in both attack and defence.

If you’re looking for a more left-field pick then Manuel Zuliani is your man. The Benetton flanker beat eight defenders against England last week, the joint-most of any player in the round (also Duhan van der Merwe) and most by a forward in this edition of the Championship.

Italy vs Ireland Predictions

The Opta supercomputer doesn’t give Italy huge hope for this Round 5 clash. Ireland have an 86.7% chance of securing victory, with the predicted scoreline 39-17 in the visitors’ favour.

The lack of bonus point for Italy in that prediction will be the biggest concern for Gonzalo Quesada and his players, as Wales will then know they will just need one point to likely avoid the Wooden Spoon.

Italy vs Ireland Lineups

Italy

15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Martin Page-Relo, 1 Danilo Fischetti, 2 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 3 Simone Ferrari, 4 Dino Lamb, 5 Federico Ruzza, 6 Sebastian Negri, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 8 Lorenzo Cannone

Replacements: 16 Giacomo Nicotera, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Giosue Zilocchi, 19 Niccolo Cannone, 20 Michele Lamaro, 21 Ross Vintcent, 22 Stephen Varney, 23 Leonardo Marin

Ireland

15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Mack Hansen, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 James Lowe, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 1 Andrew Porter, 2 Dan Sheehan, 3 Finlay Bealham, 4 James Ryan, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 6 Jack Conan, 7 Josh van der Flier, 8 Caelan Doris

Replacements: 16 Gus McCarthy, 17 Jack Boyle, 18 Tadhg Furlong, 19 Joe McCarthy, 20 Peter O’Mahony, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Sam Prendergast, 23 Bundee Aki

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Italy vs Ireland Six Nations 2025 Prediction and Preview Opta Analyst.

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