France host Scotland with the Six Nations title on the line. Can they lift the trophy for the second time in four years? Find out in our France vs Scotland prediction and preview.
In the penultimate round of this year’s Six Nations, France flipped the script by dismantling Ireland in Dublin, handing the hosts their heaviest defeat in the tournament for over 20 years and effectively ending their hopes of a historic three-peat.
As such, France now go into the final round of the tournament with the title in their grasp. There are permutations, of course, but barring a cricket score for England in their match against Wales, a win will secure France the 2025 Six Nations title.
France know how to end their Six Nations campaigns on a strong note too, having won their final game in each of the last six tournaments. No nation has ever managed it seven years in a row.
They’ll face a Scotland team who have struggled on the road recently, losing their last three away games in the Six Nations, their worst run since 2018. Despite this, the Scots will still have ambitions of spoiling the party and certainly won’t fear France.
Under Gregor Townsend, Scotland have won five of their 12 Tests against Les Bleus and came within a TMO decision of making that six last year. For context, their previous five victories against France had come over a span of 28 games.
Can Scotland stop France from picking up a seventh Six Nations title?
Strengths
It may sound obvious, but France’s biggest strength this year is the ease with which they’ve been able to score tries, having crossed the try line 26 times in total. That figure is already a record for them in the tournament and is just four shy of surpassing the overall record of 29, set by England in 2001.
They are lethal in broken play, with nine of their tries coming from either turnovers (5) or kick returns (4). Those tries accounting for 35% of their overall total – the highest such rate of any team.
Scotland aren’t bad themselves though when it comes to exploiting disjointed defences. A third of their tries have come in the same fashion (4 from kick returns, 1 from a turnover), the next best rate after France.
In fact, both teams have been pretty accomplished in their ball carrying in general. Scotland (624) and France (541) have run with the ball more often than any other teams in the tournament, with Townsend’s men beating the most defenders in the process (123) and France making the most line breaks (39).
It’s perhaps unsurprising, therefore, that France (46) and Scotland (44) are the only teams to make 40+ entries into the opposition 22, although the former are comfortably the best team at converting those entries into scores.
France have averaged 3.7 points per entry, almost a point more than anyone else (England and Wales – 2.9) while only Italy (2.2) fare worse than Scotland (2.3) in that regard. The Scots have been good at limiting their opponents’ opportunities though, and are the only team to concede fewer than 30 red-zone entries this campaign (25).
Weaknesses
It’s hard to find any weaknesses for France. They are unquestionably the best attacking team in the tournament this year, while they have the best discipline and are in the top two at both the scrum and lineout.
If there is one area they could improve on, though, it might be their scramble defence. France sit third for tackle success overall, with a solid 87% success rate – a ranking that Scotland sit top of (89%) – however, the tackles they’ve missed have proved costly.
In total, 34% of tackles missed by Les Bleus in this year’s Six Nations have seen them concede either a line break or a try, the highest such rate of any side this year.
For Scotland, the lack of physicality in their ball carrying could hurt them, especially against a France side with power all over the pitch. Townsend’s side have recorded a dominant carry rate of just 23% this year, a far cry from the three teams above them in the standings this year who all have rates above 35%.
Fantasy Picks
If you haven’t had Louis Bielle-Biarrey in your fantasy team in every round this year, you probably have some catching up to do.
The flying French winger has already equalled the record for most tries in a men’s Six Nations campaign and should he break the record, he will become just the second man to score in all five rounds of a campaign after fellow countryman Philippe Bernat-Salles in 2001 (unless Tommy Freeman scores for England against Wales, in which case Bielle-Biarrey would be the third to do it).
7 – Louis Bielle-Biarrey has scored seven tries in this year’s Men's Six Nations, the joint most by any player in an edition of the Championship, alongside Jacob Stockdale who scored seven in 2018. Beep.Six Nations Round 4 Review t.co/JBK5kdUDdB
— OptaJonny (@OptaJonny) March 10, 2025You can’t go too far wrong with any French winger though. Damian Penaud equalled Serge Blanco as France’s all time top try scorer (38) with his five-pointer against Ireland, and few would bet against him breaking that record this week.
Scotland have a back three capable of serious damage too. Darcy Graham has registered either a try or assist in 11 of his last 14 Tests, including five of his last six – only failing to do so against Ireland, a match in which he went off injured after 21 minutes.
Similarly, Duhan van der Merwe, Scotland’s all time top try scorer, has dotted down in six of his last nine matches and has scored four tries in his last six against France.
Blair Kinghorn makes up the trio and is a good bet for picking up some points with his running game. He’s made 72 carries in the Six Nations this year, over 20 more than anyone else, gaining 467 metres in the process. Another 77 metres would see him set a new record for a men’s Six Nations campaign, surpassing Mike Brown’s tally of 543 metres 11 years ago.
France vs Scotland Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is convinced that the title will be heading to France, giving the hosts an 80.4% likelihood of beating Scotland.
It expects Les Bleus to further improve on their already impressive points difference by beating Scotland by a 16-point margin, 38-22 to be precise.
France vs Scotland Lineups
France
15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Gael Fickou, 12 Yoram Moefana, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Maxime Lucu, 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros, 2 Peato Mauvaka, 3 Uini Atonio, 4 Thibaud Flament, 5 Mickael Guillard, 6 Francois Cros, 7 Paul Boudehent, 8 Gregory Alldritt
Replacements: 16 Julien Marchand, 17 Cyril Baille, 18 Dorian Aldegheri, 19 Hugo Auradou, 20 Emmanuel Meafou, 21 Oscar Jegou, 22 Anthony Jelonch, 23 Nolann Le Garrec
Scotland
15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Tom Jordan, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White, 1 Pierre Schoeman, 2 Dave Cherry, 3 Zander Fagerson, 4 Gregor Brown, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 6 Jamie Ritchie, 7 Rory Darge, 8 Matt Fagerson
Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Jonny Gray, 20 Marshall Sykes, 21 Ben Muncaster, 22 Jamie Dobie, 23 Stafford McDowall
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France vs Scotland Six Nations 2025 Prediction and Preview Opta Analyst.
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