England can heap pressure on France – and potentially condemn Wales to the Wooden Spoon – with victory in Cardiff on Super Saturday. We analyse this Six Nations 2025 match with our Wales vs England prediction and preview.
This middle fixture of the final day carries plenty of significance for both sides. Assuming Ireland dispatch Italy comfortably in the opening match – the Opta supercomputer predicts a 39–17 win for Andy Farrell’s side – Wales will know that a win, a draw, or even a losing/try bonus point could be enough to avoid finishing bottom of the table.
For England, a win is essential keep the pressure on France and at least secure second spot. Depending on Ireland’s result, a try bonus point might be needed too.
Despite Wales’ winless run now stretching to 16 Test matches, they do have some momentum coming into this match. Encouraging performances against Ireland and Scotland have offered glimmers of hope that they could spring an upset against their noisy neighbours.
England have lost their last three away games in the Six Nations and have not scored 4+ tries against Wales in Cardiff in the Championship since 2001, so a win is definitely not a done deal.
However, nine victories in their last 11 clashes with Wales in the Championship and an impressive second half against Italy last week will give Steve Borthwick plenty of confidence.
Strengths
Although kicking has been a key facet of England’s tactics in the 2025 Six Nations, it’s actually their ball-carrying game that has stood out. They have the highest dominant carry (39%), tackle evasion (27%) and gainline success (65%) rates of any side in the Championship, and have recorded the most metres per carry (6.6).
On a similar theme, Wales have impressed when they’ve found contact with ball in hand. Their 773 in-contact metres is the highest of any nation, with captain Jac Morgan leading the way on an individual level with a Championship-best 89 in-contact metres. The skipper knows how to keep those legs pumping to gain vital ground.
Another area of promise for Wales has been their disruption of opposition lineouts. They’ve won possession from eight throws – four via direct steals and four through pressure-induced errors. Adding a competitive threat at the lineout can throw off an opponent’s attacking platform as well as create doubt in crucial defensive scenarios.
Weaknesses
When you’re under the pump as frequently as Wales have been, keeping your discipline can be a challenge. Unsurprisingly then, Wales have found themselves on the wrong side of the referee’s whistle too often. They’ve conceded the most penalties (49) and won the second fewest (36 – only France have fewer).
Specifically, Wales have struggled for discipline at the breakdown (24), scrum (8) and in the tackle (7), conceding the most penalties in all three of these areas. They’ve also been shown four yellow cards, twice as many as any other team.
Conceding easy points and territory as well as handing your opponent a numerical advantage will always be an issue. Combine those lapses with an attack that has struggled to consistently convert opportunities, and it’s clear why they’re in danger of finishing bottom of the table once again.
England don’t have too many major weaknesses for Wales to exploit, but questions remain about their identity and confidence in attack. Kicking is central to Borthwick’s game plan, but when it doesn’t come off, frustration can quickly seep in.
Their attacking efficiency has been respectable, with England averaging 2.92 points and 0.42 tries per visit to the opposition 22. Defensively, they’ve been more impressive, conceding just 1.9 points per opposition red-zone entry – the best mark in the Championship. Their biggest challenge may simply be backing their attack more fully and giving their most creative players licence to influence the game.
Which version of England we’ll see in Cardiff remains to be seen, but these games usually tend to be tight and nervy. Will Borthwick’s men revert to the percentage game and put the ball on Alex Mitchell’s boot, or will they trust their young stars to attack with ball in hand?
Fantasy Picks
Although he’s switched positions from the wing to the centre, Tommy Freeman is still a great pick for this week. He has scored a try in all four rounds so far and is one of just eight players to play every minute of the 2025 Championship. Only France’s Philippe Bernat-Salles in 2001 has ever scored in every round of a Six Nations campaign, and no doubt Freeman will have his sights set on equalling that record.
Wales have plenty of options if you want some bankers for defensive fantasy points. Jac Morgan (73) and Dafydd Jenkins (63) rank first and third respectively for the most tackles in the 2025 Six Nations. Morgan has also racked up points for his carries (44, seventh most) and is the only player from one of these two nations to feature in the top 10 players (based on points per game).
Aside from Freeman, Tom Curry and Ben Earl have both been top performers for England. Earl ranks third for carries (49), while also featuring in the top 10 for defenders beaten, turnovers won (3), and carry metres (345).
Curry, meanwhile, is one of just five forwards to score multiple tries (2) in the 2025 Championship (Jack Conan 3, Dan Sheehan 2, Gregory Alldritt 2, Paul Boudehent 2). With plenty of tackles and turnovers to his name, too, he could be a great option in what could be a high-scoring, free-flowing match in Cardiff.
Wales vs England Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is pointing towards a bonus-point win for England that would leave Wales ready to stir the porridge. It gives Borthwick’s side a 78.4% chance of victory in Cardiff.
A 35-17 win for England is the Opta supercomputer’s call, a result that would pile the pressure on France ahead of the evening kick-off.
Wales vs England Lineups
Wales
15 Blair Murray, 14 Ellis Mee, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Joe Roberts, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Tomos Williams, 1 Nicky Smith, 2 Elliot Dee, 3 WillGriff John, 4 Will Rowlands, 5 Dafydd Jenkins, 6 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Jac Morgan, 8 Taulupe Faletau
Replacements: 16 Dewi Lake, 17 Gareth Thomas, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Teddy Williams, 20 Tommy Reffell, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Nick Tompkins
England
15 Marcus Smith, 14 Tom Roebuck, 13 Tommy Freeman, 12 Fraser Dingwall, 11 Elliot Daly, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Alex Mitchell, 1 Ellis Genge, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 3 Will Stuart, 4 Maro Itoje, 5 Ollie Chessum, 6 Tom Curry, 7 Ben Curry, 8 Ben Earl
Replacements: 16 Jamie George, 17 Fin Baxter, 18 Joe Heyes, 19 Chandler Cunningham-South, 20 Henry Pollock, 21 Tom Willis, 22 Jack van Poortvliet, 23 George Ford
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