Walsall fans have forgotten what promotion feels like. Of the EFL’s 72 clubs, only Colchester United have waited longer to go up a tier, so despite their position it is little surprise pessimism is kicking in. It’s a familiar sensation.
A quick glance at the League Two table only tells the glass-half-full version of Walsall’s campaign – the form table telling another tale entirely.
From the outside Walsall look to be flying, with Mat Sadler’s side top of the table and crucially eight points clear of the play-off places with 10 games to go.
It’s a nice cushion, meaning a return to League One beckons after six years way, a feat which would mark their first promotion since 2006-07.
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However, the optimism which reached the dizziest of heights in January has made way for doubt with the Saddlers in freefall, the leaders somehow 16th in the form table based on their last 10 matches.
“It seemed everything was going our way, and now it’s almost ‘well of course’, we’ve found a way to make being top of the league as Walsall as possible,” Tom Lines, co-host of One Pod Beyond podcast, tells The i Paper.
“Nice things don’t happen to Walsall very often, and there’s a sense the Walsall thing to do would be to get so far ahead and then dramatically collapse. People are just desperately worried that’s going to happen.
“If we’d had the same set of results in a different order, we’d be absolutely fine with being two points clear of second and eight clear of fourth.
“We look a team short of confidence at the moment, the polar opposite of where we were after Christmas.”
Walsall’s season reads like two different teams or campaigns, with their run of five defeats, four draws and two wins in their last 11 an almost unthinkable follow-up to the 16-match unbeaten run, which ended with nine straight wins to move them 12 points clear of second in January.
It is not difficult though to pinpoint why their fortunes have nosedived, as their top scorer has not played for the club for two months – because he is no longer there.
Striker Nathan Lowe started the season at Walsall on loan from Stoke City, and by mid-January the 19-year-old was the League Two joint top-scorer with 15 goals.
At the time, Stoke were the joint-lowest scorers in the Championship, and they decided to recall Lowe after he had just scored for a fifth straight match.
No surprise then, that Walsall have since lost their title as English football’s top scorers - their 65 league goals now third behind Championship leaders Leeds United (72) and Premier League champions-elect Liverpool (69) - as well as the League Two team with the most shots, where they have been overtaken by Doncaster Rovers.
“We probably underestimated just how important he [Lowe] was to us,” Lines adds.
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“It seems mad doesn’t it, a kid who was 18 when he joined. The system Sadler devised is high-energy, and Lowe led from the front, he was a brilliant finisher who allowed us to defend high up the pitch.
“Since he’s gone, we’ve retreated into our shell, keeping one clean sheet in 2025 . That’s not what promotion-winning teams are built on.
"Lowe’s influence wasn’t just goals, it was his energy and pressing.
"We compressed the pitch so much in that first half of the season our numbers were bizarre, creating so many opportunities and not letting the opposition have barely any.
“Without that high intensity and superb finishing, any team is going to struggle. There’s no doubt we’re less creative.”
Walsall now have to keep Bradford City and Doncaster at bay - the clubs in second and third respectively - while the chasing pack are closing in too.
Walsall head to Bromley on Thursday night ahead of a crucial hat-trick of fixtures: at home to AFC Wimbledon (fourth), away to Doncaster, and at home to Port Vale (sixth).
The belief is that four or five wins should be enough. As fans bite their nails - Lines calling their podcast "group therapy" - there are parallels to draw on as well. One good, one bad.
Forest Green Rovers endured a similar League Two campaign in 2021-22, a 19-match unbeaten run between October and February putting them on the cusp of League One for the first time in their history.
They got there, but only just, winning the title on goal difference and finishing four points clear of the play-off places, an outcome Walsall fans would certainly accept.
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The fear though is that Walsall follow Tranmere Rovers’ footsteps.
In 2012-13 Tranmere led League One for the majority of the season, even as late as February, but eight defeats in their final 11 games saw them slip away from contention and out of the play-off spots too, ending the season 11th.
“At one stage we needed 25 points from 22 games probably, and now we’re struggling to get that – which is an indictment of the second half of the season,” Lines says.
“The mood is that if we don’t manage to finish inside the top three, the mood is going to get pretty dark pretty quickly, despite it being a season beyond our wildest expectations.
"Nobody expected us to be in the top seven, never mind first, so the club clearly need credit. It would just be such a shame if that was squandered by not getting over the line.”
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