Atlético Madrid will bank on a strong home record in their bid to overturn a narrow first-leg deficit against Real Madrid in their Champions League last-16 clash on Wednesday. Look ahead to the game at the Metropolitano with our Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction and preview.
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer has Atlético Madrid as narrow favourites, giving them a 38.5% win probability to Real Madrid’s 35.2%. Atléti have not lost a home Champions League knockout-stage fixture since March 1997. Carlo Ancelotti will take charge of his 75th Champions League game with Real Madrid.Atlético Madrid will bank on a formidable home record as they look to overturn a narrow first-leg deficit to rivals Real Madrid in their Champions League last-16 clash at the Metropolitano on Wednesday.
Los Blancos edged proceedings 2-1 in the first encounter at the Santiago Bernabéu last week but this tie remains mouth-wateringly poised ahead of the return clash.
If Diego Simeone’s men are to turn things around then they will need to count on some home comforts; his side have lost one of their past seven home games against Real Madrid in all competitions (W3, D3).
Moreover, Atléti have not lost a home Champions League knockout-stage match (either at Vicente Calderón or the Metropolitano) since a 3-2 defeat to Ajax in March 1997, going unbeaten in 18 such contests since (W11, D7).
Atléti do have previous for coming back in ties, too. They have lost the first leg in six previous Champions League ties and fought back to progress from three of them, with all of those instances occurring when they have lost the first leg away from home (2014-15 last 16 vs Bayer Leverkusen, 2015-16 quarter-final vs Barcelona and 2023-24 last 16 vs Inter).
However, historically Real Madrid are notoriously difficult to fight back against. They have progressed 21 times from 22 Champions League ties when they’ve won the first leg. The one exception was against Ajax in the last 16 in 2018-19. Under Carlo Ancelotti, they have progressed on nine out of nine such instances.
Speaking of Ancelotti, this match will mark the Italian’s 75th Champions League game in charge of Real Madrid, making him the first coach to reach this milestone with the club, and the seventh coach to do so with any single team.
His side are averaging 2.55 goals per game in the competition this season (28 in 11 games), their highest since 2016-17 (2.77). They have already managed more shots on target this season (78) than they had in last season’s competition (74).
Rodrygo scored their opener last week to register his 25th Champions League goal for Real Madrid. In doing so, the Brazil forward is the fourth-youngest player (24 years, 54 days) to score 25 for a team in the history of the competition behind Lionel Messi for Barcelona (22 years, 286 days), Kylian Mbappé for PSG (22 years, 352 days) and Raúl for Real Madrid (23 years, 252 days).
He did, however, pick up a hand injury in the win over Rayo Vallecano at the weekend, and is one of three key doubts for Madrid. Vinícius Júnior suffered a toe injury, and Jude Bellingham – who missed the first leg through suspension – took a knock to his thigh. Reports suggest all three should be available, while Antonio Rüdiger is also a doubt due to illness.
For Atléti, Julián Alvarez – scorer in the first leg – has now been involved in at least one goal in each of his past five Champions League appearances for the club (six goals, one assist). The only two Argentine players to score or assist in six in a row are Claudio López (six in 1999 for Valencia) and Messi (eight in 2011-12 and six in 2014 for Barcelona).
Atléti are likely to still be without veteran defender César Azpilicueta for this derby clash, while Koke remains a doubt. They have no fresh injury concerns from the weekend, although they didn’t make ideal preparation for this game, throwing away a one-goal lead to lose 2-1 at Getafe.
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head
Atlético have lost just once in their past seven home game against Real Madrid in all competitions (W3, D3). In cup competitions, they are unbeaten in five home fixtures against their rivals, winning four and drawing the other.
Madrid had a streak of eight consecutive away victories against Atlético between January 2008 and February 2014. However, since then they have managed just three wins from 17 away games in this derby across all competitions (L7, D7).
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction
Atléti may have lost last week’s first leg but a strong home record against their city rivals means they start as slight favourites with a 38.9% win probability from the 10,000 simulations conducted by the supercomputer.
Emphasising how finely poised this match, and indeed the tie overall, is, Ancelotti’s side have a 35.2% chance of winning the game, with the draw rated at 26.3%.
A narrow victory in the first leg means Madrid have a 72.5% chance of making the quarter-finals, while they have a 9.2% probability of winning the competition overall.
Atléti, meanwhile, have a 27.5% possibility of reaching the last eight and a much smaller 2.2% likelihood of lifting the trophy in Munich at the end of May.
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this week, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction Opta Analyst.
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