Russia is using Donald Trump’s pause on intelligence sharing with Kyiv to bombard key Ukrainian targets and weaken Volodymyr Zelensky’s position at the negotiating table, experts have told The i Paper.
The Russian military on Thursday night launched large-scale missile and drone bombardment on Ukraine‘s energy infrastructure, wounding 10 people, including a child, and disrupting critical heating and water supplies.
“Russia is trying to hurt ordinary Ukrainians by striking energy and gas production facilities, without abandoning its goal of leaving us without light and heat, and causing the greatest harm to ordinary citizens,” Ukraine’s Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko said Friday morning.
The attack came days after Trump paused military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, severely weakening Kyiv’s ability to detect and intercept oncoming missile attacks and locate Russian targets.
Despite Trump and Vice President JD Vance’s clash with Zelensky in the Oval Office last week, where the Ukrainian leader was berated for what they claimed was insufficient gratitude towards the US, talks between the US and Ukraine on ending the three-year war are set to take place in Saudi Arabia next week.
“Part of the reason the attack was so devastating is because Ukraine has not been able to use its air defence systems,” Dr Marion Messmer, Senior Research Fellow in the International Security Programme at Chatham House, said.
Ukraine “no longer has access to the right intelligence they would have needed [to stop] incoming attacks,” she explained, suggesting Russia sought to use the “intelligence blackout” inflicted by the US.
Firefighter team conduct extinguishing work after civilians injured in Russian missile attack on residential area in Kharkiv, Ukraine (Photo: State Emergency Service of Ukraine/Anadolu)“US Government intelligence for Ukraine has been really important in terms of allowing Ukraine to understand Russian movements, to understand where Russian attacks might come from,” Messmer added. US satellite and detection systems have helped Ukraine “not just preempt and attack but also to be able to counter a target”.
Rod Thornton, a Russian military expert at King’s College London, said the US intelligence pause will mean Ukraine no longer has access to American satellite imagery to assist them with target identification for their own missile attacks on Russia.
“What do the Ukrainians fire at if they don’t know what’s out there?” he said. “They can’t see beyond the horizon unless they use their own drones for observation, but they haven’t got that many and have been reliant on the Americans to find out where the Russian targets are that they can launch their drones or missiles against.”
Russia ‘encouraged’ by success of bombardment
Russia will be “encouraged” by the success of the overnight attack and Ukraine’s weaker defence, Thornton said, adding bombardments “will now become more effective.
“Russian drones and missiles will get through Ukrainian ground-based air defence systems because they haven’t been pre-warned.”
He warned that Ukraine will now face “more and more” attacks, “masked by a lot of drone attacks at the same time so that Ukrainian air defences are kind of swamped and are unable to find the really accurate big missiles”.
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The US intelligence pause also means Ukrainian fighters no longer have access to high-quality radio intercepts to hear Russian communications on the battlefield.
“This will stymie the ability of the Ukrainians to hit Russian targets with their own missiles.
“The Americans were previously using intelligence means to provide warning to the Ukrainians that stuff was on the way and then they could then take defensive manoeuvres.
“Previously Ukrainians would know well in advance if a Russian attack was coming but now they’re reacting at the last minute.”
Russia ‘weakening’ Ukraine’s negotiating position
“It’s not really building up to a ceasefire to essentially conduct these kind of attacks,” Messmer said, reflecting on the overnight missile attack.
She suggested Russia was using ramped-up missile attacks to “pressure Ukraine to the table.”
“The US actions will have already had a pretty big impact on morale in Ukraine so if there’s also additional severe attacks then that might be an attempt to further undermine morale — but it might also simply be opportunistic.”
“We can expect Russia to continue to try and attack and capture as much of Ukrainian territory as they can essentially to pressure Ukraine to accept terms that would be more suitable for Russia.”
Trump in past weeks has appeared to draw America closer to Russia, organising talks with the Kremlin on ending the war and refusing to condemn Russia’s attack on Ukraine at the UN.
Moscow has been quick to express its delight, with the Kremlin’s spokesman suggesting US foreign policy is now largely aligned with the Russian government.
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