Scotland and Wales both come into this match on the back of defeats. Who can get back to winning ways at Murrayfield on Saturday? Find out in our Scotland vs Wales prediction and preview.
Although both Scotland and Wales suffered defeat in Round 3 of this year’s Six Nations, the disappointment following those losses will have been different for each team.
Scotland left Twickenham feeling like they let a win slip through their fingers, having outscored England three tries to one, only for wayward kicking to cost them victory.
Wales on the other hand felt a sense of positivity for the first time in months. Despite defeat to Ireland, they pushed the reigning champions far harder than many expected, showing signs of progress in Matt Sherratt’s first game in charge.
The question now is whether Scotland can rekindle that winning feeling after back-to-back defeats or if Wales can turn promise into points in Edinburgh.
Scotland have had the edge in this fixture in recent years, winning each of their last two meetings, as many as they’d recorded in their previous 15 clashes. They enjoyed a record win the last time these two sides clashed in the Scottish capital (35-7).
Wales certainly don’t need any more incentive to win this match, but they will be keen to avoid a 16th consecutive Test defeat, a streak that only Italy have reached among Tier One nations in the professional era.
Strengths
Both Scotland and Wales have shown how capable they are at causing opposition defenders problems with their running games.
Scotland have beaten 90 defenders in this year’s Six Nations, the most of any team. Meanwhile, Wales beat 33 defenders against Ireland in their last match, one more than they’d beaten in their opening two games of this tournament combined (12 vs France, 20 vs Italy).
In fact, it was Wales’ highest tally for defenders beaten in any Six Nations game since the Italians joined back in 2000, beating a tally of 32 against the Azzurri in the 2004 edition.
Scotland and Wales have some devastating attacking players and if they can give them time and space on the ball, they could cause havoc.
Weaknesses
Giving your attacking players time and space is easier said than done, though. Both teams will need to find a way of getting over the gainline with more regularity to give their electric backs the chance to do some damage.
Analysing the data in the Opta Six Nations Stats Hub tells us that Scotland (49%) and Wales (48%) are the only teams with a gainline success rate below 50% after three rounds of the 2025 tournament.
Additionally, Scotland have the lowest dominant carry rate of any team (23%) with Wales recording the lowest tackle evasion rate (17%) despite their strong performance against Ireland last time out.
The gainline battle will be hugely important on Saturday and whoever can get the upper hand will give themselves an excellent chance of going into the final round on the back of a win.
Fantasy Picks
Wales’ Blair Murray could provide a low-budget option in your back line, with back-three players often costing a hefty total. The Scarlets utility back beat 11 defenders against Ireland – the most by a Wales player in a single Six Nations match, surpassing Scott Quinnell’s 10 against Italy in 2000.
He topped the fantasy points tally for that match and ranked in the top five across the round, trailing only Antoine Dupont, Leo Barre, Grégory Alldritt and Duhan van der Merwe.
Jac Morgan remains the key man for Wales and he’s been pretty effective on the two occasions he’s faced Scotland in his career, averaging double figures for both carries (10) and tackles (12). That’s always a good starting point for a decent fantasy points haul.
Max Llewellyn also offers a lot of potential in the centres, having scored seven tries and assisted a further five in the Premiership this season, the joint most of any player alongside Gloucester and Wales teammate Tomos Williams and Bristol’s Harry Randall. Scotland’s Finn Russell also lurks just behind, inside the top five.
Williams and his opposite number Ben White – the first Scotland player to score in the opening three rounds of a Six Nations campaign – both provide good options at scrum-half if you feel Dupont and Jamison Gibson-Park will cancel each other out this weekend.
Blair Kinghorn offers a safe option at full-back having made more carries (58) and gained more metres (371) than any other player in the Championship this year. His preference for running over kicking – having put boot to ball just six times – makes him a strong fantasy asset.
Meanwhile, Ewan Ashman might provide a viable option for anyone looking for some impact off the bench; he’s played more minutes as a replacement than any other player in the tournament this year (88).
Scotland vs Wales Prediction
Despite Wales’ improved performance against Ireland, the Opta supercomputer heavily favours Scotland, giving them an 83.2% chance of victory.
The model predicts a comfortable Scottish win, with a projected scoreline of 32-17.
Scotland vs Wales Lineups
Scotland
15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Tom Jordan, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White, 1 Pierre Schoeman, 2 Dave Cherry, 3 Zander Fagerson, 4 Jonny Gray, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 6 Jamie Ritchie, 7 Rory Darge, 8 Jack Dempsey
Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Gregor Brown, 20 Matt Fagerson, 21 George Horne, 22 Stafford McDowall, 23 Kyle Rowe
Wales
15 Blair Murray, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Ellis Mee, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Tomos Williams, 1 Nicky Smith, 2 Elliot Dee, 3 WillGriff John, 4 Will Rowlands, 5 Dafydd Jenkins, 6 Jac Morgan, 7 Tommy Reffell, 8 Taulupe Faletau
Replacements: 16 Dewi Lake, 17 Gareth Thomas, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Teddy Williams, 20 Aaron Wainwright, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Joe Roberts
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Scotland vs Wales Six Nations 2025 Prediction and Preview Opta Analyst.
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