Which Bay Area teams have the best shot at NCAA Tournament berths? We evaluate the chances of all 12 ...Middle East

Fans of the Saint Mary’s men and the Cal women can relax: Their teams are headed to the NCAA basketball tournament.

It will be an unprecedented fourth straight NCAA bid for the Gaels, the first since 2019 for the Golden Bears.

But for every other Bay Area team, getting to the Big Dance is still a reach.

Here’s our projection for how all six men’s and women’s teams fit into the NCAA Tournament picture:

Men’s hoops

Cal

Record: 13-17, 6-13 (T-14th in Atlantic Coast Conference)

NET ranking: 126

Next game: Saturday at Notre Dame

What matters: The Bears’ win over Boston College on Saturday clinched one of the 15 spots in the ACC tournament field. They will play a first-round game next Tuesday in Charlotte, N.C. and would have to win five games in five days to secure an NCAA bid.

NCAA chances: 3 percent

Saint Mary’s

Record: 27-4 overall, 17-1 (Won West Coast Conference regular-season title)

NET ranking: 18

Next game: Monday in WCC tournament semifinals, opponent TBD

What matters: The Gaels have won at least a share of the WCC regular-season title for three straight years. They swept Gonzaga and have just one defeat since before Christmas. With a strong showing at the WCC tourney, Saint Mary’s could land a No. 6 seed in the NCAAs.

NCAA chances: 100 percent

San Francisco

Record: 23-8, 13-5 (3rd in WCC)

NET ranking: 62

Next game: Sunday in WCC tournament quarterfinals, opponent TBD

What matters: The Dons’ path in the WCC tourney will include a semifinal matchup against Gonzaga and a likely title-game showdown with top-seeded Saint Mary’s. A winner in seven of its past nine outings, USF handed the Gaels their only loss of the conference schedule but has lost 32 straight to Gonzaga.

NCAA chances: 15 percent

San Jose State

Record: 13-18, 6-13 (8th in Mountain West)

NET ranking: 188

Next game: Saturday vs. Fresno State

What matters: It’s been nearly three decades since the Spartans’ most recent NCAA bid. This team would have to duplicate the unexpected run by the 1996 squad, which was 10-16 before winning three in a row at the Big West tournament to land an invite. The MWC event gets started next Wednesday.

NCAA chances: 5 percent

Santa Clara

Record: 20-11,12-6 (4th in WCC)

NET ranking: 51

Next game: Sunday in WCC tournament quarterfinals, opponent TBD

What matters: Shut out of the NCAA Tournament since Steve Nash was a senior in 1996, the Broncos would play in the WCC semifinals against Saint Mary’s, which has won the past eight meetings between the century-old rivals. Advancing to the title game could mean facing Gonzaga, whom the Broncos have beaten once each of the past two seasons.

NCAA chances: 20 percent

Stanford

Record: 19-11, 11-8 (7th in ACC)

NET ranking: 83

Next game: Saturday at Louisville

What matters: Powered by senior Maxime Raynaud, the Cardinal has clinched its first winning season since the abbreviated 2020-21 campaign, but Stanford has not reached the NCAAs since 2014. A victory at No. 14 Louisville could help the Cardinal climb a bit closer to the bubble.

NCAA chances: 10 percent

Women

Cal

Record: 24-7, 12-6 (7th in ACC)

NET ranking: 38

Next game: Thursday vs. Virginia in ACC tournament second round

What matters: Second-seeded Notre Dame awaits in the quarterfinals. Up for grabs is Cal’s seeding in the NCAA Tournament but a spot in the bracket is almost a sure thing. Almost.

NCAA chances: 99 percent

Saint Mary’s

Record: 14-15, 10-10 (6th in WCC)

NET ranking: 188

Next game: Saturday in WCC tournament third round, opponent TBD

What matters: Seeded No. 6 in the WCC event, the Gaels are 1-7 against the top four, but the lone victory was last week against No. 4 seed Oregon State.

NCAA chances: 3 percent

San Francisco

Record: 14-15, 11-9 (5th in WCC)

NET ranking: 143

Next game: Saturday in WCC tournament third round, opponent TBD

What matters: USF handed top-seeded Gonzaga two of its three WCC defeats. But the Dons haven’t won two games in a row since January so a title run here will be a steep climb.

NCAA chances: 5 percent

San Jose State

Record: 10-21, 3-15 (T-last in Mountain West)

NET ranking: 285

Next game: Sunday vs. Fresno State in Mountain West tournament first round

What matters: The Spartans closed the regular season by losing six in a row and wound up as the No. 11 seed after dropping both games to Utah State, which also went 3-15. SJSU was 0-6 against the top three seeds.

NCAA chances: 1 percent

Santa Clara

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Record: 14-16, 8-12 (8th in WCC)

NET ranking: 210

Next game: Friday in WCC tournament second round vs. LMU

What matters: The Broncos lost seven-point decisions to co-champions Gonzaga and Portland on the final weekend of the regular season and they’ve won just once since the first weekend of February.

NCAA chances: 5 percent

Stanford

Record: 16-14, 8-10 (T-10th in ACC)

NET ranking: 48

Next game: TBD

What matters: The Cardinal, which has played in every NCAA Tournament since 1988, won five of its final six regular-season games to give itself a chance. Getting upset by Clemson in the first round of the ACC tournament and a 1-9 record in Quad 1 games won’t help.

NCAA chances: 15.

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