Liverpool had a rare off-day in the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie with PSG. But Alisson came to their rescue.
Had Wednesday gone only slightly differently, Liverpool fans, players and staff would have awoken – if they slept at all – on Thursday morning to the reality that their UEFA Champions League hopes for the season were in tatters.
They went into their last-16 tie with Paris Saint-Germain as favourites not only for the two-legged duel, but to go all the way. And yet, at the Parc des Princes, they were outclassed for much of the match.
PSG sliced through the Reds at will in periods, with the likes of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Ousmane Dembélé almost unplayable with their jinking runs and purposeful glances towards goal.
Considering much of Europe has largely looked down on PSG as a luxuriously assembled squad lacking real substance for most of this era under Qatari ownership, it felt like there was something a bit different about them this time.
They were creating chances, enjoying control and generally appearing to be having fun – that’s not necessarily unusual in itself, but the context of their opposition made it eye-opening.
Liverpool have – and few people would argue differently – probably been the best team in Europe this season. They’re running away with the Premier League title, into the EFL Cup final and finished top of the Champions League’s inaugural ‘league phase’ with a two-point cushion over Barcelona and Arsenal.
Under Arne Slot, the Reds have pushed on remarkably despite seeing the legendary Jürgen Klopp depart in the summer, and much of the discourse of the week or so leading up to Wednesday’s trip to Paris was about whether they could win a treble.
If they do go on to enjoy such success, Wednesday in Paris will be looked back upon as the night fans knew luck was on their side, that it was written in the stars.
While Harvey Elliott’s dramatic late winner, coming just 46 seconds after replacing Mohamed Salah, was an obvious headline moment, the real hero of the night for Liverpool was Alisson.
Although no one is doubting the Brazilian’s quality, the past 18 months or so have been a little different to the norm for him. He missed over two months of action last term due to injury and another two months this season; Caoimhin Kelleher largely deputised well, to the extent that some may have been pondering if a changing of the guard wasn’t too far in the future.
Further to that, last summer saw Liverpool strike a deal to sign Giorgi Mamardashvili from Valencia this July, with the Georgian having emerged as one of the most promising goalkeepers in the world.
There’s also a hint of uncertainty surrounding Alisson’s contract. With an expiry date in 2027, it’s not exactly a cause for panic for anyone just yet, but they’re approaching a time when decisions tend to be made regarding long-term futures.
Wednesday’s performance left little doubt as to the level Alisson is still at, however.
He made nine saves over the course of the match, which is the most he’s ever recorded in a game for Liverpool. But beyond that, it was also the most any Reds goalkeeper has made in a Champions League match on record (since 2003-04), while only eight keepers for any team over the same period have tallied more.
Sure, some were straightforward like from Achraf Hakimi’s long-range attempt, or Desiré Doué’s feeble shot from an acute angle late on; but also among them were exceptional saves. He practically defied the laws of physics in getting down to keep Kvaratskhelia’s goal-bound effort out in the 37th minute, and he acrobatically tipped a free-kick from the same player around the post early in the second period.
According to our expected goals on target (xGOT) model, Alisson prevented 2.3 goals with his saves on the night. While there have been two goalkeepers record even better outputs in this season’s Champions League, it’s unusual to see such numbers posted by those playing for the historically biggest and most successful clubs.
For example, there’s only one other instance of a Liverpool goalkeeper recording more than 2.0 goals prevented (2.2) according to xGOT data in a Champions League game on record (since 2010-11), which was Alisson too, and he still conceded four goals on that occasion in a 4-1 defeat at Napoli in September 2022.
With that in mind, what will obviously help make Alisson’s display in Paris all the more memorable is the fact he also kept a clean sheet, they won, and it was in a knockout tie, which emphasises its decisiveness and importance.
There have been many goalkeepers in Champions League matches record saves that equate to more ‘goals prevented’ than Alisson’s on Wednesday, but what about among keepers who managed to keep a clean sheet and in knockout games?
Well, there are only five goalkeepers who meet that criteria who were deemed to have prevented more goals than Alisson according to xGOT data. Yann Sommer leads the way there; he recorded 3.1 goals prevented for Basel against Bayern Munich in a shock 1-0 last-16 first-leg win back in February 2012 – though it’s worth saying the Germans won the second leg 7-0 at the Allianz Arena.
The extraordinary nature of Alisson’s evening is further highlighted by the fact his 2.3 goals prevented is also the best he’s recorded for that metric in a single game since joining Liverpool in 2018.
For Liverpool fans, witnessing such a goalkeeping performance isn’t exactly unheard of. But it’ll undoubtedly feel refreshing that it wasn’t against them, instead aiding them en route to a potentially vital European victory.
After all, one of the most memorable goalkeeping displays in Champions League history prevented Liverpool from winning the trophy as recently as 2022, and that just so happened to have been the last time they played in Paris.
Thibaut Courtois enjoyed probably the game of his career as he almost singlehandedly (well, he used both hands, but you know what we mean) kept the Reds at bay, allowing Vinícius Júnior’s 59th-minute strike to be decisive.
On that night, Courtois’ saves were worth 2.5 goals prevented, which is comfortably the most on record for a Champions League final.
This time, such excellence helped clear a path through to the Champions League quarter-finals for the Reds, who ultimately saw their chances of winning the whole thing improve considerably as a result of beating PSG.
When it was still 0-0, Liverpool went all the way in 19.7% of the latest 10,000 Opta supercomputer season simulations at the time; after Elliott’s goal, that went up to 26.1%. That’s a percentage increase of 32.5% – what we can’t tell you is hypothetically what their chances would have been had Alisson not been there to save the day time and time again prior to Liverpool’s winner.
All we can say to that effect is Alisson bailed them out with one of the great Champions League goalkeeping performances, which has the potential to be looked back on as the decisive display en route to glory.
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A Fright in Paris: How Alisson Saved Liverpool’s Champions League Dream with Potentially Season-Defining Display Opta Analyst.
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