Peace under pressure or division… What are Israel’s plans and tools in Syria ...Syria

Ali Darwish | Khaled al-Jeratli

The true dimensions of Israel’s new approach in Syria are becoming clear, and its position regarding the new administration was emphasized days ago with the first aggressive statements targeting Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, expressing a lack of trust in him due to his Islamic background, and the overall administration he led to Damascus from northern Syria.

Behind the diplomatic and military assault targeting different sites, and the focus on points in southern Syria, there is talk of the possibility of moving the peace negotiations file between the Syrian and Israeli sides. However, this movement comes under pressure and blackmail from Israel, taking advantage of Damascus’s weakened state and its attempts to recover from the devastation caused to a country that is exhausted economically.

Does the Israeli stance relate to the identity of the new administration, or is it influenced by Israel’s desire to divide Syria and keep it weak for a long time, or by proactive arrangements for a peace process? This is what Enab Baladi seeks to shed light on, by re-evaluating the field and political realities and consulting experts and locals in political affairs.

American officials have repeatedly stated that Syria could be one of the countries that will join the normalization train with Israel since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Previously, US President’s envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, stated that Syria may soon normalize relations with Israel. “I believe there is a possibility for Syria and Lebanon to normalize relations with Israel after the strong strikes that Iranian-backed forces suffered there,” referring to Hezbollah and the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Greek researcher Eva Kolouriotis believes that the Israeli government is exploiting “the fragile and economically besieged situation in Syria to enhance its security gains and present its actions as a fait accompli.” She also stated that it is blackmailing the new Syrian administration through various tactics, such as supporting the separatist situation in eastern Syria by influencing the views of Donald Trump administration to achieve political gains.

Kolouriotis, a political expert specializing in Middle Eastern affairs, added to Enab Baladi that Israel is working to strengthen relations with the Druze leaders in Israel, particularly Sheikh Muwafaq Tarif, and with the Druze in Syria, offering them reassurances and guarantees for their protection, and may have also played a role in preventing the leader of the Eighth Brigade, Ahmad al-Awda, from joining the new Syrian army.

Through its policy of exploiting the situation, Israel is building its own influence network within Syria, either to move towards fragmenting the Syrian geography at some point, especially if the new Syrian administration does not deal with these moves more seriously, or to use these cards to blackmail the new Syrian administration into signing a new peace treaty that recognizes the Golan Heights as part of Israel and takes steps to normalize relations within the so-called “Abraham Accords.”

Creating or exploiting tension in the south?

The Syrian administration is struggling with weak points that it has not been able to control or exert effective influence over so far, the most prominent of which is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that continues to negotiate with the Damascus government for its integration and sets conditions for that.

The second weakness, which is crucial for Israel, is the southern provinces. The provinces of Daraa and Quneitra have seen the entry of security and military forces; however, the Damascus administration has not yet succeeded in reaching an agreement with the Eighth Brigade, despite the denial from the leader of the Eighth Brigade, Naseem Abu Arrah, regarding the statement from the Syrian Minister of Defense that the faction refuses to engage with the Ministry of Defense.

On February 10, Abu Arrah stated that the people of the south were the first to call for the establishment of a national defense ministry operating according to disciplined military standards.

The Eighth Brigade first appeared as a Free Syrian Army faction under the name “Youth of the Sunnah,” active in the eastern Daraa countryside, and after the security settlement of 2018, the faction joined the Fifth Corps supported by Russia in the previous regime’s army under the name “Eighth Brigade.”

In 2022, it transitioned to work with the Military Security (the faction denies this) and played a role after the settlement in reducing tensions between local fighters in Daraa and regime forces.

As for As-Suwayda, consultations are still ongoing among military faction leaders and religious authorities to reach a decision that all components of As-Suwayda agree upon, according to observers, insiders, and those involved in these consultations who spoke to Enab Baladi.

However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is attempting to manipulate the As-Suwayda card.

On February 23, Netanyahu stated, “We will not allow any threat to the Druze community in southern Syria,” referring to As-Suwayda.

Netanyahu called for the disarmament of the provinces of Daraa, As-Suwayda, and Quneitra in southern Syria, and for the new Syrian administration not to enter them.

He added, “We will not allow (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) or the new Syrian army to enter the area south of Damascus.”

Israeli soldiers on the Syrian side inside the occupied Golan Heights – December 10, 2024 (Reuters)

Changing the rules of engagement

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz criticized the Syrian president during the transitional phase, stating that “al-Sharaa has come to power in Syria, and he has ‘swapped his pants for a suit, and he speaks well,'” noting that Israel does not trust him.

Katz added, as reported by Israeli Channel 12 during a press conference, “We only trust the Israel Defense Forces. It was clear to me and the Prime Minister that the buffer zone must be occupied, and our policy is to stay there, on the summit of Mount Hermon and at the observation points, for an indefinite period.”

Katz also said, “We will not allow violations of the demilitarized zone in southern Syria, and we will not allow any threat to emerge,” which implies a direct threat to the Damascus government and Israel’s determination to prevent it from deploying military forces in the southern provinces of Quneitra, As-Suwayda, and Daraa.

The Director of Research at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, Maan Talaa, clarified that Israel had defined, since Operation “Al-Aqsa Flood” and the subsequent clashes in southern Lebanon, the outlines of its security approach in the region.

Currently, the Israeli security approach is based on the necessity of changing the rules of engagement, which “the facts have proven no longer apply,” according to Talaa’s expression. This requires undermining the Iranian project and its tools, forcing it to reassess its positioning according to the current reality. Accordingly, Israel has been working on expanding its defensive lines to include the depths of Lebanon and Syria.

Talaa added to Enab Baladi that Israel’s incursion into Syria has taken four steps: filling the void left by regime forces, expanding surveillance and tracking of weapons and quality documents in the south, establishing military points of high geo-security importance, and relying on local actors who have grievances against the new Damascus government.

Satellite images published by the Israeli Haaretz newspaper on February 18 revealed that the Israeli army has established seven military bases within the demilitarized zone in Syria, along the border with the occupied Golan.

The images show that the seven sites extend from the heights of Mount Hermon in the northern part of the demilitarized zone to Tel Qudna in the southern part, near the border triangle between Israel, Syria, and Jordan, and also show Israeli soldiers deployed along the border with Syria.

According to the Israeli newspaper, the seven locations are in Mount Hermon, the town of Hadar, Jubata al-Khashab, al-Hamidiyah, the city of Quneitra, al-Qahtaniyah, and Tel Qudna.

The report by the Israeli newspaper confirms that Israel is building new bases in Syria, in addition to completing the construction of bases it began establishing earlier, as reported by Enab Baladi’s correspondent on January 21.

The correspondent confirmed at the time the establishment of six military bases in Quneitra province, five of which are inside the demilitarized zone specified by the 1974 agreement, and one outside it.

The establishment of the bases has gone through several phases, the first of which began immediately after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, as Israeli forces took control of the Syrian side of Mount Hermon. This was followed by incursions into Quneitra province, reaching the outskirts of Daraa, and then the Israeli army’s control of government buildings in Quneitra, which were subsequently vandalized, and the establishment of military bases within and outside the demilitarized zone specified by the 1974 agreement.

Building operations are taking place on agricultural lands owned by residents, in addition to communal lands, and trees are being uprooted and lands are being bulldozed during the construction of the base, which has also led to a reduction in grazing areas as they are designated military zones.

These operations coincided with Israeli airstrikes targeting Syrian army military bases in various areas, and the Israeli army seized thousands of weapons from southern Syria.

In mid-January, Israeli army spokesperson for Arab media, Avichay Adraee, stated that the army had discovered more than 3,300 weapons and documents in southern Syria.

Among the confiscated items in Syria were tanks belonging to the ousted regime’s army, rifles, anti-tank missiles, RPGs, mortars, reconnaissance equipment, and other military items.

On February 24, the Israeli army stated that its forces were able to destroy weapons in the areas they entered in southern Syria, having conducted dozens of raids and discovered various arms “that pose a danger to the security of the State of Israel,” which were subsequently destroyed.

It clarified that the 474th Brigade, led by the 210th Division, continues what it described as “defensive activities,” deploying at control points in the demilitarized zone to enhance Israel’s defense.

Border control plan

Israeli radio revealed on February 11 that Tel Aviv has quietly established a security zone within Syrian territory, confirming that its presence in Syria is no longer temporary.

Reports also confirmed that there is currently no definitive timeline for ending control over the security area, reflecting an Israeli strategy to strengthen its military presence in Syria without a specific time frame.

Israel aims, through its operations in southern Syria, to manage its security and control its borders according to various points, namely:

Meanwhile, Damascus appears to be in a confused position; on one hand, the state administration is still fledgling and unable to enforce security on its borders, while it continues to struggle in negotiating with the southern forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which hold power in northeastern Syria.

The Damascus government does not want to create early tension with the region, so its only option is diplomatic, which explains al-Sharaa’s visit to Jordan.

Al-Sharaa visited Jordan on February 26, where he was received by King Abdullah II. However, his visit was brief.

Both sides discussed opportunities to develop cooperation and reach common formulas to enhance and sustain coordination on various levels, achieving common interests and reinforcing Arab unity.

The Jordanian king condemned the Israeli attacks on Syrian territory, reaffirming his country’s support for Syria’s sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity.

Discussions also addressed the necessity of close coordination between the two countries to tackle various challenges related to border security and curbing arms and drug smuggling, emphasizing the importance of Syria’s return to an active role in its Arab neighborhood, according to the official Jordanian News Agency (Petra).

Israeli Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi, inspecting Israeli forces in Syria – January 2, 2025 (Avichay Adraee)

On February 28, Reuters reported from informed sources (unnamed) that Israel is exerting pressure on the United States to keep Syria weak and decentralized, while allowing Russia to retain its military bases on the Syrian coast to counter the increasing Turkish influence in Syria.

The pressure indicates a coordinated Israeli campaign to influence American policy at a critical juncture for Syria, while “Islamists” who ousted Bashar al-Assad are trying to stabilize the divided state and urging Washington to lift sanctions, according to Reuters.

Three American sources told the agency, along with another individual familiar with the communications, that Israel conveyed its views to senior American officials during meetings in Washington in February and subsequent meetings in Israel with representatives of the US Congress.

Two of the sources mentioned that the key points were also circulated to some senior American officials, but it remains unclear to what extent the Trump administration is considering adopting Israel’s proposals, which have said little about Syria, leaving uncertainty regarding the future of sanctions and whether US troops deployed in northeastern Syria will remain.

Israel builds on al-Sharaa’s past

The Israeli government justifies its foreign policy towards Syria by citing the past of the new leadership, viewing it as a source of security concern. It builds its current strategy, as is known, on the fact that the Syrian president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, led a “jihadist group” (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), and from Israel’s perspective, the ideology of this group is undoubtedly close to that of its traditional enemy, Hamas, according to political expert Eva Kolouriotis.

Kolouriotis stated to Enab Baladi that Israel approaches its security issues in Syria along with numerous issues linked to al-Qaeda, including the organization’s animosity towards Israel in its ideology.

Naturally, the new Syrian administration has been trying to counter this narrative since day one of Assad’s escape and the fall of his regime, through moderate internal policies and an open regional policy, according to the researcher.

Many countries have previously expressed concerns that Syria would be governed by the ideology of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which spearheaded the military battles that led to the regime’s collapse when opposition factions reached the outskirts of Damascus on December 8, 2024.

Following the regime’s fall, former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned the new authorities in Syria of the necessity to learn from the experience of the Taliban movement in Afghanistan, or else they would face “isolation worldwide.”

Blinken said in a conversation with the American Council on Foreign Relations that he met with officials from Turkey, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq, the Gulf Arab states, and other European countries to set principles regarding what he expects from Syria.

He added that any entity emerging in Syria will be concerned with gaining recognition and will need support from the international community.

Due to Israeli fears of repeating the “al-Aqsa Flood” experience it faced with Gaza, it adopted the decision to secure a safe zone in southern Syria since mid-last year; this was evident through Israeli military movements in the Golan during that period of mine explosions and the construction of defensive lines, according to the researcher.

It was expected that Israel would resume its steps after completing military operations against the Lebanese Hezbollah, which is allied with Iran. However, the rapid developments in Syria and the fall of the Assad regime pushed it to capitalize on the event and shift to implementing an intensive air operation covering numerous military bases and airports in Syria before returning to previous plans to establish a safe zone in southern Syria, according to Kolouriotis.

She added that based on the Israeli vision to arrange its plan in Syria, it can be said that whoever rules Syria, whether al-Assad, al-Sharaa, or the secular Syrian opposition, would decide on military operations in southern Syria. This decision is not tied to the new Syrian administration but rather to a new Israeli view of the region.

Peace under pressure or division… What are Israel’s plans and tools in Syria Enab Baladi.

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