Stat, Viz, Quiz: Which Leagues Will Get a Fifth Champions League Place? ...0

Stat, Viz, Quiz is the Opta Analyst football newsletter. This week’s edition looks at the FA Cup, the Champions League, and the Bundesliga.

The Premier League took a break this weekend to make way for the FA Cup fifth round. Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham were already out, while Manchester United joined them after being eliminated on penalties by Fulham on Sunday.

That leaves Manchester City as the only so-called ‘big six’ team left in the competition, so could we be set for a fresh-faced winner this year? In this week’s SVQ we’ll be looking at the other remaining participants.

Speaking of which, the Champions League last 16 first legs take place this week, with some familiar faces and some not-so familiar ones. We’ll see how the coefficients have been affected since the play-off round.

Before we start, if you’ll indulge us for a moment, all of us at Opta Analyst were delighted to learn last week that we have received four nominations in the SJA’s prestigious British Sports Journalism Awards, including being up for the Digital Sports Publisher award alongside heavyweights The Athletic, Sky Sports, The Guardian, The Times & Sunday Times, MailOnline Sport and The Telegraph.

Anyway, you’re not here to read about that; you’re here to read about a stat, look at a lovely viz and partake in a quiz, so let’s get to it.

If you haven’t done so already, you can subscribe below for free to receive SVQ every Tuesday.

STAT – New Faces Up for the Cup

As we mentioned in SVQ 82 last month, the men’s FA Cup has not been as varied in terms of winners in recent decades as some might think.

At the start of each season you almost always get people predicting that the trophy will be lifted by a non-big six side (Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham), and yet, history suggests it is very likely one of the more familiar names will do so.

Since Wimbledon shocked Liverpool in the 1988 FA Cup final, there have only been four further instances of a non-big six team lifting it: Everton in 1995, Portsmouth in 2008, Wigan Athletic in 2013 and Leicester City in 2021. In fact, Spurs have only won it once in that time (1991), so between them, five teams have accounted for 31 of the last 36 FA Cups.

There is a decent chance we get a fresher face this season, though.

Following Man Utd’s penalty-shootout loss to Fulham in the fifth round, Man City are the only big-six side remaining in the FA Cup, and they’ve been handed a tough quarter-final away to Bournemouth.

Of course, City are still favourites to win an eighth FA Cup. They were beaten finalists last year, but did lift it the season before. However, should they stumble in a campaign where they have been doing that an awful lot, there are seven sides looking to take full advantage.

Aston Villa, Brighton, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Preston North End and Nottingham Forest remain in the FA Cup. The last time any of those teams lifted the famous trophy was Forest in 1958-59 when they beat Luton Town 2-1 in the final.

Villa have won seven FA Cups in total, but have not lifted it since 1956-57, while their quarter-final opponents Preston have won it twice (1888-89 and 1937-38). In fact, that second success in 1938 was the first FA Cup final to be televised in its entirety.

Fulham, Brighton, Palace and Bournemouth are yet to win it, so who knows? We could even crown a new victor in 2024-25.

BONUS STAT – Bundesliga Travel Joy

As we’re feeling generous following our award nominations, we thought we’d give you all a bonus stat this week… and also because there happened to be another interesting bit of data we wanted to talk about, but let’s just pretend it’s out of the goodness of our hearts, shall we?

Anyone keeping an eye on European football this week may have noticed that there were eight away wins in the Bundesliga on Matchday 24. They came in the first eight games of the matchday too, meaning all the pressure was on Freiburg to make it a full house on Sunday, but they could only draw 0-0 at Augsburg.

Elsewhere, there were wins for Bayern Munich, Mainz, Borussia Monchengladbach, Wolfsburg, Hoffenheim, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen and Holstein Kiel. In fact, Holstein Kiel secured their first ever away win in the Bundesliga with a 1-0 victory at Union Berlin.

In the history of the Bundesliga (since 1963), there has only been one previous matchday to feature as many as eight away wins, which came on MD6 of the 2019-20 season (also 8).

This season has so far seen the second highest percentage of away wins in Bundesliga history, though the record could be under threat if we get more matchdays like the latest one.

There have been 74 away wins in 216 Bundesliga games in 2024-25 (34.3%). The most away victories in a Bundesliga season came in 2019-20, when there were 115 from 306 games (37.6%). Home teams have come out on top in 43.1% of Bundesliga games this season.

By comparison, in the Premier League this season, there have been 97 away wins from 271 games (35.8%). That’s slightly up on the 32.4% of last season (123 away wins from 380 games) and is only behind the 2020-21 season for percentage of away victories. Of course, the 40.3% of away wins that season will likely have been due to the fact games were almost entirely played behind closed doors due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ligue 1 has seen 32.4% of games won by the away team this season, down from last season’s 34.3%. As with the Premier League, the highest percentage of away victories in the French top flight came in 2020-21 behind closed doors (37.6%).

Over in Serie A, there has been a rise from last season in terms of away wins, up to 31.2% from 28.7% in 2023-24.

Of Europe’s top five leagues, though, it is La Liga where we generally see the fewest away wins. Only 27.0% of games this season have been won by the away side, slightly down from 27.9% last season.

There are numerous questions to be answered about how much home advantage plays a part in football matches, something that we’ll definitely be looking into on Opta Analyst before long, but it seems happy away days for fans are becoming a bit more prevalent.

VIZ – How Efficient is Your Coefficient?

It’s almost time for the proper knockout stages of UEFA’s biggest club competitions. We’ve had the play-off rounds, but that sort of felt like a middle stage between the league phase and the knockout rounds.

The last 16 of the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League take place on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, with more first legs than someone’s debut bucket from KFC (other fast-food restaurants are available, but not all allow for limb-related wordplay).

Far be it from us to tell you to already look ahead to next season, but… we are about to do exactly that.

With the expanded formats, last season saw an extra place in the Champions League handed to the two countries with the best UEFA coefficient dependent on their teams’ performances in Europe. Germany and Italy secured them, meaning they each had five representatives in the league phase of the competition this season.

However, it doesn’t look like either will have one again next season.

Germany has just four of eight teams remaining in Europe, with three of those in the Champions League last 16. While Borussia Dortmund face Lille, one of Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen will go no further as they play each other.

As far as Italy goes, though, Inter are the sole survivors in the Champions League, with Bologna, Milan, Atalanta and Juventus all out. Fiorentina are still in the Conference League while Roma and Lazio have Europa League hopes, but fifth place in Serie A now has just a 16.5% of qualifying for next season’s Champions League.

As things stand, England are almost certain to get a fifth Champions League spot, which funnily enough could be of benefit to Manchester City, despite the fact Pep Guardiola’s team are the only English representative in Europe to have been knocked out this season. The other six remain, meaning England has a 99.4% chance of a top-two finish in the UEFA coefficients according to the Opta supercomputer.

Spain are well-placed to also benefit, with an 84.1% chance. La Liga has six representatives remaining in Europe, with the usual trio of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atlético Madrid still in the Champions League, though one of the Madrid sides will go out at the last-16 stage as they face each other.

These numbers could change quickly with a chaotic last 16, but chances are we’ll be seeing more from English and Spanish teams in the Champions League in 2025-26.

QUIZ – Champions League Knockout Knowledge

With the first legs of the Champions League last 16 taking place this week, we thought we’d go European for this quiz. Answers at the bottom of the page.

1. Aston Villa will be the fourth different team Unai Emery has managed in the knockout stages of the Champions League, following Valencia, Paris Saint-Germain and Villarreal. Only three managers have ever done so in charge of more than four. Can you name two of them?

2. Real Madrid have only lost one of their last 17 matches in the knockout stages of the Champions League (W11 D5) and are unbeaten in nine (W5 D4) since suffering the only defeat in this run. Who was that loss against?

3. Barcelona’s Raphinha has been directly involved in 12 goals in eight games in the Champions League this season (8 goals, 4 assists). Only two Brazilian players have ever had a hand in more in a single edition of the competition. Name either of them.

4. Bayern Munich’s Manuel Neuer could make his 150th Champions League appearance when the Rekordmeister host Bundesliga rivals Bayer Leverkusen. In doing so, he would become just the second goalkeeper to reach this milestone in the competition, after who?

5. Liverpool travel to face PSG on Wednesday having not won any of their last five away games against French sides in Europe (D2 L3), with their last such victory coming in the group stage of the 2008-09 Champions League. Who did they beat?

Ask Opta

This week’s question comes from Sam J, who asks: “How many goal involvements is Mo Salah on course to get this season, assuming he doesn’t get injured?” 

Do you have a stats-based football question you want to Ask Opta? If so, send it to [email protected] and we’ll do our best to provide you with the answer in a future edition of SVQ.

Answer:

Thanks Sam. We’ve been writing about Salah almost non-stop this season thanks to his various escapades in a Liverpool shirt. The Egyptian King has been living up to his nickname with goals and assists coming out of his ears (though most are via his trusty left foot).

Following his assist in Liverpool’s 2-0 win against Newcastle United last week, Salah has 42 goal involvements in 28 Premier League games in 2024-25 (25 goals, 17 assists). Should he keep that rate of 1.5 goal involvements per game up, he will finish the season with 57 goal involvements in total. That would beat the current Premier League record by 10, and the 38-game record by 13.

Salah is on 52 goal involvements from 39 games played in all competitions (30 goals, 22 assists). This will obviously depend on how far Liverpool go in the Champions League, but should they reach the final, it means they will have played a further 18 games. Assuming Salah plays in all of those, extrapolating his current average of 1.3 goal involvements per game this season would see him end on a whopping 76 goals and assists in all comps.

Our Opta data hubs have detailed team and player stats, predictions, expected league tables and much more. Click below to start your own data investigations.

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Quiz Answers

1. Aston Villa will be the fourth different team Unai Emery has managed in the knockout stages of the Champions League, following Valencia, Paris Saint-Germain and Villarreal. Only three managers have ever done so in charge of more than four. Name two of them.

Carlo Ancelotti (6), José Mourinho (6) and Claudio Ranieri (5)

2. Real Madrid have only lost one of their last 17 matches in the knockout stages of the Champions League (W11 D5) and are unbeaten in nine (W5 D4) since suffering the only defeat in this run. Who was that loss against?

4-0 away to Manchester City in the 2022-23 semi-finals

3. Barcelona’s Raphinha has been directly involved in 12 goals in eight games in the Champions League this season (8 goals, 4 assists). Only two Brazilian players have ever had a hand in more in a single edition of the competition. Name either of them.

Roberto Firmino in 2017-18 (17) and Kaká in 2006-07 (13)

4. Bayern Munich’s Manuel Neuer could make his 150th Champions League appearance when the Rekordmeister host Bundesliga rivals Bayer Leverkusen. In doing so, he would become just the second goalkeeper to reach this milestone in the competition, after who?

Iker Casillas (177 appearances)

5. Liverpool travel to face PSG on Wednesday having not won any of their last five away games against French sides in Europe (D2 L3), with their last such victory coming in the group stage of the 2008-09 Champions League. Who did they beat?

Marseille (2-1)

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Stat, Viz, Quiz: Which Leagues Will Get a Fifth Champions League Place? Opta Analyst.

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