One of the most valuable lessons one can learn in life is that you are not responsible for how other people choose to behave, only for how you respond to their conduct. We in the free world find ourselves in need of this advice, now that the President of the United States has shamed the Oval Office with his treatment of Volodomyr Zelensky.
Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron did their best to tee up a productive meeting between the Ukrainian and American leaders in their own visits to Washington. It was crucial to try. But the outcome was failure, in all its performative ugliness.
This presents a question for everyone, not only for us Atlanticists: how do we navigate a world without America?
That may sound stark, but it’s the reality. Yes, the Nato treaty is still there, but we can have little faith that President Trump could be relied upon to honour it were we to activate Article 5 and call our American cousins to our defence.
The United States may one day change its mind, and return to its friends and its responsibilities. But for now that appears to be a partisan issue in that country, so the outlook of the world’s most powerful country could switch every four years.
It is possible for a strong consensus to be re-established. We know this in Britain: the Labour Party indulged in isolationism for several years, but is now recommitted to defence and to our allies. So it can be done. But we cannot guarantee that it will happen for America, nor predict when.
So we must work on the assumption that this state of affairs is here to stay, at least for the time being. We should regret it – even rage against it – but there’s no point pretending things are not as they are.
The diplomatic contrast the British Government has projected in recent days is a good start in adapting to this changed world. Go to Washington, and you risk being hectored and denounced in order to make “great television”. Come to London, and you can expect a polite welcome, a thoughtful hearing, and a photo op with the King.
Sir Keir Starmer acknowledged last week that hard power matters more than soft, by cutting international development to fund the Armed Forces. But he never said soft power doesn’t matter at all.
To build the trust and relationships from which the new defensive military alliances we need can emerge, effective diplomacy – including the tactful deployment of the monarch – is itself useful.
It seems likely there will be a debate in due course about the approach that the free world should pursue in order to stay successful and safe in these more dangerous times. This is already taking shape, and comprises three areas.
First, how to respond to Trump and his government: should they be snubbed, courted, begged to come back? Second, should there be an EU army? Third, what is the future for Nato if the United States can no longer be relied upon?
We can already begin to divine the position of the UK in these debates, even at this early stage.
The Prime Minister’s support for Ukraine is clear, but he chose to stop short of denouncing Trump publicly – in part to be able to speak both to the Americans and the Ukrainians in the hope of bringing them back together.
That effort may prove fruitless, but seeking to position the UK as a diplomatic bridge with the US is a wise use of our unique position – and if it doesn’t work this week or this year then it may still be worthwhile in the longer project of rebuilding the Atlantic alliance.
square MARK WALLACE
There is a way Europe can afford to step up for Ukraine - make Russia pay for it
Read MoreThe approach will draw flak from Trump critics and sympathisers – including the new British ambassador to Washington, Lord Mandelson, whose off-message and more Trump-friendly declarations have already had to be politely slapped down by the Government.
After Mandelson’s comments to ABC News that Zelensky should give “unequivocal backing” to Trump’s plan and “should be the first to commit to a ceasefire and defy the Russians to follow”, Armed Forces minister Luke Pollard said flatly that this was “not government policy”.
The twin questions of an EU army and the future format of Nato are entwined.
It is unsurprising that the former has come up, yet again, though it remains bedevilled by concerns about wasteful duplication, and the basic issue that nations still exert more practical and emotional pull than supranational institutions – “No leader wants to send troops to die under an EU flag”, as one EU diplomat reportedly said this weekend.
An EU army would also fail to provide a route for Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea or others to put their shoulders to the wheel.
However, to survive effectively, Nato will need a major reformulation, which takes time and money. American kit, American command and control, and interoperability between European and American troops are major pillars of the Nato military model. Sunday’s summit saw new commissioning from UK suppliers, financed by frozen Russian state assets, but we will need a major expansion of British and European defence manufacturing capacity.
Starmer’s choice of words – “a coalition of the willing” – are crucial. He echoed George W Bush, who forged such a coalition because France would not let Nato support the US in Iraq.
Today, the tables are turned: it is the United States which is no longer willing, and their allies must find new ways of working together to fulfil their goals.
In other words, this is a time for alliances of nation states – those quaint, old-fashioned institutions which people so often speak of as if they were a thing of the past – to come into play as the essential vehicle for making decisions and getting things done.
Britain has shown it can convene, cajole and encourage that co-operation – and this should be just the beginning.
Mark Wallace is chief executive of Total Politics Group
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