Portland has turned it around since a horrible start to the season. Where does this turnaround rank among the best in the past 40 years?
The first 41 games of the season went exactly how one would expect for a rebuilding Portland Trail Blazers team in a conference full of killers.
Through the halfway point of the season, the Blazers were a lowly 13-28. However, what has happened since then has not been nearly as predictable. In some ways, it has been historic.
The Blazers have won 13 of their last 18 games, and have moved to within a manageable 4.5 games back of the 10th seed in the Western Conference.
In honor of their shocking turnaround, we’re going to look at some of the greatest midseason transformations of the last four decades, and try to pinpoint where this year’s Blazers stack up.
TRACR rating (how good a team is overall on a per 100 possession basis) of every team’s first 41 games and last 41 games since 1984-85 (the furthest back our TRACR database extends).
The teams with the greatest improvement between their first- and second-half TRACR are going to be the teams we deem to have had the most significant midseason turnarounds.
Here is that list of the largest improvements heading into this season.
4. 2018-19 Orlando Magic (TRACR Improvement: +9.2)
Through 41 games, the Magic were an uninspiring 17-24. But a flip switched in the middle of the season, as the Magic went 25-16 en route to sixth seed in the Eastern Conference.
In that stretch, the Magic went from a bad offense (minus-3.8 offensive TRACR) to a slightly above average one (0.9 O-TRACR). But the real drastic change came on defense, as they morphed from a poor defense (1.0 defensive TRACR) to a very good one (-3.5 D-TRACR).*
(*Note: Keep in mind, for D-TRACR, the more negative, the better.)
3. 2014-15 Cleveland Cavaliers (+9.6)
The first year of LeBron James’ return to the Cavaliers took some time to really get off the ramp. They started the season 21-20, which isn’t bad, but a far cry from the title contender they were projected to be.
They eventually lived up to that reputation in the second part of the season, going 32-9 in the second half and coming within two wins of the NBA championship. In that stretch, they took their offense from good (3.3 O-TRACR) to elite (7.4 O-TRACR) while also elevating their defense from abysmal (3.3 D-TRACR) to good (-2.2 D-TRACR).
2. 2016-17 Miami Heat (+9.8)
This situation is probably the most analogous to what we are currently seeing with the Blazers. In their first season without any of LeBron James, Chris Bosh, or Dwayne Wade, the Heat (as expected) struggled mightily coming out of the gates – going 11-30.
Of course, they still had their mad scientist head coach Erik Spoelstra, and with the help of Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside, Tyler Johnson, James Johnson, Dion Waiters and a handful of other fan favorites, the Heat executed a complete 180 in the back half of the schedule – finishing 30-11 and just shy of an Eastern Conference playoff berth.
In that stretch, the Heat took their offense from a -3.2 O-TRACR to a 3.4 O-TRACR, and their defense from a 0.5 D-TRACR to a -2.5 D-TRACR.
1. 2021-22 Boston Celtics (+10.0)
Remember when people thought the Celtics needed to trade one of Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum? Those criticisms were loudest midway through the 2021-22 season, when the Boston Celtics were 20-21 at the official midpoint of the regular season.
Then, by moving Marcus Smart to point guard (allowing him to facilitate for the two scorers), the Celtics took their offense from average (0.4 O-TRACR) to electric (5.4 O-TRACR). And on defense, they came up with creative tactics to keep their rim guardian, Robert Williams III, near the paint at all times – fully unlocking the titanic defense we have come to know and love today (going from a -1.5 D-TRACR to a -6.5 D-TRACR).
In the process, they finished the season 31-10, and came just short of winning it all – falling to the Golden State Warriors 4-2 in the NBA Finals.
2024-25 Portland Trail Blazers (+13.7*)
So where do this year’s Blazers rank? Well, keep in mind that we still have 23 games left in the regular season, so there’s a good chance that this number balloons down. But, as of right now (*through Feb. 27), the Blazers are on pace to have a more drastic turnaround than any of the other examples we’ve cited above.
The Blazers have taken their offense from an abysmal -3.6 O-TRACR to a respectable 1.4 O-TRACR. Meanwhile, their defense has gone from a horrid 4.1 D-TRACR to an excellent -4.6 D-TRACR. In total, that is a TRACR improvement of 13.7 – 3.7 points higher than the next best team on our list prior to this season.
There are many parties responsible for this minor miracle, but there are three names who deserve some special recognition. Toumani Camara has been a favorite in the nerd community for his Scottie Pippen-like defensive abilities. His 1.7 D-DRIP is in the 96th percentile in the NBA.
Anfernee Simons has provided scoring and creation on the other side of the ball – leading the team in O-DRIP (1.2, 90th percentile). And Deni Avdija has been the team’s overall best player. He’s the only player on the roster who is not a negative in DRIP on either offense or defense.
Given the unforgiving nature of the Western Conference, it is difficult to imagine that the surging Blazers can sneak their way into the playoffs in 2025. Our prediction model currently gives them a 2.8% of making it to the game’s second season.
Still, the way they have turned their season around is something we’ve never seen before, and it needs to be appreciated.
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